Dave Wasserman

Excited to join @Morning_Joe in a few moments to discuss the new @CookPolitical Partisan Voting Index (PVI). But, viewer discretion: yesterday, my new car's wild rear power liftgate put a huge gash in my forehead, so I'm welcoming any last-minute makeup tips.

What's the @CookPolitical PVI℠ (Partisan Voting Index)? We're out with a new video explainer: youtube.com/watch?v=u6DMMI…

NEW @CookPolitical: 2026 mid-decade redistricting has yielded a House map that's more Republican and less elastic. We're out w/ our new PVI scores, and Dems now need to win 57 of 77 seats in the R+5 to D+5 range (74%) to win a House majority. cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/intro…

New @CookPolitical: Far-left candidates are winning Dem primaries, but not in most of the races that will decide the House majority. Analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

One “benefit” party committees had with the no-coordination rule; they avoided hard conversations w/ incumbents who wanted ad cover. “I’d love to help, but that’s the decision of the folks behind the I.E. wall”. No longer… cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

Rs can’t control Trump — nor count on economy bouncing back to 2018 level Instead, GOPers have to convince voters that their Dem opponent is a  bigger risk than a rubber stamp for the president. Or as @danpfeiffer wrote “The wild card isn't the environment — it's us.”

THE MINGLE PROJECT: CNN SPECIAL PREMIERING TODAY AT 9 AM & 1 PM ET on CNN. Watch Here ▶ youtu.be/7_2Ra-DjV_4 What if America's biggest problem isn't politics—it's isolation? Michael Smerconish brings together leading thinkers, researchers, physicians, and social commentators to examine America's loneliness epidemic, growing polarization, and the disappearance of the shared experiences that once connected us. Drawing on decades of research and conversations with some of the nation's leading thinkers—including Robert Putnam @RobertDPutnam, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, David Wasserman @Redistrict, Scott Galloway @profgalloway, Debra Soh @DrDebraSoh, Tami Benton, and Ezekiel Emanuel @ZekeEmanuel — this special examines why Americans increasingly live, work, socialize, and even think apart from one another. The conversation starts now. Join us on YouTube.

Iowa is now the center of the political universe. Read our post-primary analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/2026-…

It would be disastrous for Dems to get locked out of a seat they redrew to be a safe pickup, #CA06. There’s still good reason believe Pan (D) will ultimately edge out Stansfield (R) for the second slot, but it’s the difference between a sure D pickup and an assured R hold.

🎯 Mark your calendars! @Redistrict and the CPR team goes live TONIGHT at 9m ET to talk primaries in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Tune in on Substack: open.substack.com/live-stream/22…

How this age of extreme gerrymandering is transforming American politics — via @patrickdmarley @oliviacgeorge wapo.st/4dQQ4UG

April @CookPolitical Battleground District Survey, 25% of Rs & 23% of Indies said they liked Trump’s policies, but not behavior; trust R’s more than D’s on economy/culture issues. But, when Trump is center stage, the harder for substance to come through.

Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down a plan that would have redrawn the state’s congressional maps to benefit Democrats. In an opinion, a majority of the justices said a referendum passed by voters last month was unconstitutional. It’s a major setback for Democrats, as both parties wage a war of mid-decade redistricting. @IAmAmnaNawaz speaks to David Wasserman (@Redistrict) for more.

Seems like SCOVA's main holding is that, contrary to the Democratic lawyers' argument, an election starts when people start voting

Enormous setback for Dems as VA Supreme Court strikes down the referendum vote and therefore Dems’ 10D-1R gerrymander. Now best Dems can hope for is to pick up two seats under current map, not four.

New GOP friendly maps in AL/TN/LA/FL can help R’s a bit, but they can’t change the political environment. Even if those maps pass legal scrutiny AND Dem map in VA gets struck down, most realistic scenario is that R’s net 4-5 seats from redistricting. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

Something to consider as Republican states look to redraw their maps following Callais: unlike in TX or NC or FL, where there will still be Dems in the delegation or statewide, these states are considering getting rid of all of their Dem voices. That could give some pause…

We’re in uncharted waters now with a high degree of uncertainty. We don’t know how the SCOTUS standard will be applied going forward. But we do know that Southern states will take an aim at many Black-majority seats, most likely before 2028. Read our full thoughts on VRA here:

New @CookPolitical: Three big takeaways from the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act decision. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…