Dave Wasserman

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Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.

Washington, DC Katılım Eylül 2009
1.2K Takip Edilen609.1K Takipçiler
Dave Wasserman retweetledi
Matthew Klein
Matthew Klein@MattKleinOnline·
We’re in uncharted waters now with a high degree of uncertainty. We don’t know how the SCOTUS standard will be applied going forward. But we do know that Southern states will take an aim at many Black-majority seats, most likely before 2028. Read our full thoughts on VRA here:
Cook Political Report@CookPolitical

There are still a lot of unanswered questions swirling around the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act decision, especially its impact on the 2026 midterm election. Here's our current thinking from @amyewalter and @MattKleinOnline: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

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Matthew Klein
Matthew Klein@MattKleinOnline·
Initial VRA thoughts — working this through on the fly. Louisiana and South Carolina are the most likely to draw out Dem seats. But both have their primaries very soon and the filing deadlines are long gone. Doubtful there’s enough time for new maps this year. (1/?)
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Dave Wasserman
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict·
It's nearly impossible to disentangle race and partisanship in the South, which is why this ruling could have such apocalyptic consequences for Black representation across the Deep South (more likely in '28 than '26).
Zachary Donnini@ZacharyDonnini

Not a legal expert, but to my plain reading this is the passage in the ruling that seems most concerning for the future strength of Section 2, and likely why Elena Kagan was so alarmed in dissent. The key question going forward: can plaintiffs produce evidence for any current Black-majority Southern district showing that racially polarized voting exists in a way that cannot simply be explained by party affiliation?

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Amy Walter
Amy Walter@amyewalter·
And, for that “temporary’ pause in CA of non-partisan redistricting until 2030. Hard to believe that Dems in the state will not fight for partisan redistricting if Rs get rid of 5-7 Dem seats in the south in 2028
Kyle Kondik@kkondik

Callais decision seems to suggest more litigation to figure out precisely what it means. For 2026, we'll see how states react on a case by case basis. Starts with LA Also ensures that the 2025-2026 redistircting battle will continue with fury into 2027-2028.

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Dave Wasserman
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict·
The four Dems most imperiled by this proposal: #FL09 Darren Soto (D) #FL14 Kathy Castor (D) #FL23 Jared Moskowitz (D) #FL25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) The riskiest play? Targeting Castor, b/c surrounding Tampa Bay GOP seats would be absorbing many of her Dem voters.
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Dave Wasserman
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict·
NEW: per Fox News, new FL map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would target four Dem seats, aiming to convert a 20R-8D delegation to 24R-4D. But in a year like 2026, not all of the 24 seats would be safe for the GOP. More from @CookPolitical soon. foxnews.com/politics/ron-d…
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Matthew Klein
Matthew Klein@MattKleinOnline·
With our @CookPolitical rating changes following the Virginia referendum's passage, the median House seat is now getting dangerously close to Lean Democrat. That didn't even happen in 2018. Needless to say, Democrats are the clear favorites to win a House majority.
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Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn@Nate_Cohn·
I'm going to break my self-imposed social media ban to note something that I might write if I wasn't leaving on a trip tonight: If you want to solve gerrymandering, it is a solvable problem.
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Amy Walter
Amy Walter@amyewalter·
Why is Spanberger not popular; voters elected her bc she said she’d focus on affordability. Thus far, she’s most tied w/ a thing she didn’t campaign on, and one that is definitely not about controlling cost of living: a very partisan 10-1 map.
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