SmallCapKing

I'm pissed at my performance this week. Very pissed. I need to pull others down with me. So $PLCE mgmt, you screwed everyone over again. Yes, I still hold a grudge re your crooked purchase of the company. Now, your stock is down 20% aftermarket on another Fri afternoon massacre.

@GustavErikss0n I liked Bryan a lot. He is a terrific guy. But the problem wasn't what he said; the problem was he wasn't a great CEO. All the ancillary crap he got $BYRN into and his refusal to go after anyone but right-wing gun owners cost us a lot of mkt. Fortunately, that can be fixed

@SmallCapKing2 Yeah that seems like the scenario we have to hope for. Would be nice also if the new CEO buys a lot of shares right now to show his trust. I’m still wondering were we would be if Bryan had not get a brainfart during the call in Q2

$BYRN scaring everyone by nuking guidance for now. Tbh, I don't see any new news. We already knew the Q stunk, the consumer outlook was muddy, and Q2 would be weak. But I REALLY like the new CEO's plans. If you believe in the product, like me, ride this out. Weak hands are gone.

@GustavErikss0n @SleepwellCap That's my bet. And what $BYRN's new CEO is saying is exactly what I was asking the old CEO about call after call, mtg after mtg. The new CEO is going to address the 95% of the mkt $BYRN was ignoring. With an attractive product (per B&M, $AMZN, etc.), this could turn big.

@SleepwellCap @SmallCapKing2 I like that they said it, the weak Q1 was already going to get us this low might aswell take two punches at once. If we at the end of Q2 sees that the new strategy is the right way that could be huge for Q3-4. And then we will have low numbers to compare with in 2027.

@Amulya219340789 Someone asked me that below and all I could say honestly was... the f if I know. I thought we would've hit that point already. But one of the sell-side "analysts" downgraded today, so I'm hoping soon all the weak hands will be out, leaving long-term believers (and a stock base).

@SmallCapKing2 What do you think the bottom is ? 6.5 or less than that

I'm annoyed that all stocks seem to be going down the same amount each day. I'm looking for some I like to plunge a bit so I can jump in. But I'm finding nothing getting WAY more attractive to jump into in a big way (w/o new news like BYRN).

@SleepwellCap Awful, wasn't it? But more important wasn't the guide, but the massive degradation in conversion trends on the website. $BYRN's products are obviously still attractive to the market - as we see in B&M and $AMZN. We need better selling and addressing the other 95%. It's coming.

@SmallCapKing2 the big issue was next quarter’s guide completely sucks, will be down seq and y/y for what’s supposed to be a high growth company. but i agree they likely get through this

@Amulya219340789 To be blunt... the f is I know. 😂 I would've thought above these levels, but Q2 is going to be THAT bad. And one of the sell-side "analysts" came out with #'s that are too hi (IMO) on Q2 already. But another downgraded $BYRN to today, so that may shake the weak hands left.

@SmallCapKing2 What will be the bottom of the stock right now and by q2 may be 2-3$

@Amulya219340789 IF I'm right - or whenever we see a big rebound as $BYRN finally attacks the 95% of the mkt they've been ignoring - I'm looking for $15 w/ EPS of 75c and a 20x to start. In the end tho, this either works big over 2 yrs or I'm just wrong. Targeting a specific price less important.

@SmallCapKing2 When you big growth in q4 , how much do you think it will hit approx ? Like 20 or 30 ?

@chance4422 $CYRX is in the first inning of a long game with CGT (cell & gene therapy). While not a pure play like $BLFS, and while in a more commoditized business, they will definitely reap the rewards of growth in commercial CGT therapies, which are really STARTING to ramp.

@SmallCapKing2 I briefly did an industry overview on CYRX but know little besides that. Why is it up? And what is your thesis? My preliminary thoughts were that the transition from phase 2/3 trials to commercial would offer meaningful rev and margin acceleration that hasn’t been priced yet.

Need to see what I missed on $CRSR (down 10% afterhours) and what I nailed on $CYRX (up modestly). Waiting impatiently on $AVNW.

@Valuetrapp @GustavErikss0n I'd say poor execution... which I think the new CEO has perfectly identified and is aiming to fix... which shouldn't be rocket science.

@SmallCapKing2 @GustavErikss0n Wow what a shitty company

@Amulya219340789 Just answered in a post below. Pls look at that. Thx!

@SmallCapKing2 Where do you think the downfall is ? How much more it can go down and when it may come up and how much more it may come up ? Based on your view When do you think it will recover

@Amulya219340789 FYI, I bought $BYRN twice today to add to an already huge position. Premature? Maybe. Maybe I should be more cautious on near-term consumer, while I wait for the big rebound during the holidays. That said, my 1 year confidence is very high.

@SmallCapKing2 What do you think of Byrn stock right now ? It touched almost 6.80 Do you think it will touch more down and what do you think of this in the next quarter

@GustavErikss0n I think Q4 will be the first Q we see the fruits of $BYRN's labor show thru. And if things go as planned, I can still see my original FY27 #'s of $165M and 80c. If that actually comes thru, we can triple+ from here. Of course, a lot of time and "life" between now and then.

@SmallCapKing2 Yeah I’m buying aswell, yes probably going to have to wait a while until we see progress.

For anyone who still cares about my actions... days ago I said I sold 3/4 of my $AVNW. Today, I covered my $RELL short and went long again, a decent amt. And I just bought more $BYRN. I believe it's a long-term $-maker and have said before I think $7.50 is a fair bottom for now.

@GustavErikss0n I agree. Already bought more today. It's a medium-term play.

@SmallCapKing2 It’s painful to see this reaction on things we already knew haha. But the new CEO seems to have a solid plan and should be good for the stockowners.

@a1b1c67eudhhd Sometimes you hit a bad patch. I'm sure you understand. But if you let it shake you, you'll extend it. Key here is to think clearly and take advantage of any dislocations. $AVNW was an example of that. So are $RELL & $BYRN. That's why my actions are different on each.

@SmallCapKing2 Rell up, byrn absolutely decimated, AVNW sold. On a roll

As a refresher of a past post, I expect $RELL to have another problem this Q that I think may cause a miss. The outlook will, as always, sound positive, but I'm not sure people will care on the day after the report (Thu trading after Wed PM report). I'm out for now.

I accept all the criticism that comes my way on my bad $RELL call. Even the best are right only 60% of the time and I'll put my long-term record against anyone's. That said, from the time I warned until today's pop, that sort only hurt 4%.

@peonyKingOF Well, I butchered that $RELL call. Back to my original (+) thesis on RELL's prospects, tho visibility is always muddy in the key semi cap sector and the key green energy underperformed again. That said, it feels like an inflection point if mgmt doesn't screw up as they often do.

$RELL

I've maintained a small position in $AVNW, but in general I can't imagine - even if I'm wrong on the Q & guide - the bear story fully disappears, EMEA fears won't crop up, or the very low valuation corrects immediately. So I think there's a little time to watch from the sideline.

Of course, the war may actually HELP $AVNW long-term as infrastructure may need to be rebuilt. However, there are bigger problems for countries and companies short-term that I think could impact demand, payments, shipping logistics, etc. (more)

After exhaustive review of the $AVNW short report, financials, my notes, and more - and keeping in mind my constant refrains not to get married to a stock and only own what you would buy if you didn't already own it, I have sold a significant amount of my holdings. (more)