SmallCapKing

@Antoniokolstee Actually, not necessarily. I know why you would say that, but in this case the dice are rigged. Underwriters of deals try to leave at least 15% upside on the table for Day 1 to keep investors happy, doing biz with them, and recommending them to other companies for their deals.

@SmallCapKing2 so, gambling.

I got way more $SPCX on the IPO than I expected, and much higher than what I've gotten on the few prior deals I've subscribed to. That could be a reflection of $SPCX giving more to retail investors... or it could be foreboding a lack of as much demand as everyone believes.

@the_strikeout But my question is serious. I want to know if anyone has done that work. I'd love to see how on earth (or on Mars) this valuation can be justified financially.

@SmallCapKing2 ROI? Fundamentals? Valuation?

Can anyone show me a discounted cash flow model on $SPCX? I'd love to know - from a real economic basis - how many years one has to hold the stock - if buying today - to make their money back. 20? 40? Remember that buying a stock is buying a piece of the company. You need an ROI.

I did my best to take advantage of the $SPCX mania (meaning the space mania meets AI mania, both of which I think has 6 months or left to live). Flipped my stock for a nice 20% gain. Thank you, buyers.

@the_strikeout exactly

With an Iran deal in doubt yet again, it's staggering the #stockmarket is holding up (after yesterday's big gains). I can't count how many times the market's jumped on Trump comments that "talks are going well," and yet it never gives up those gains when nothing works out. Wild.

2 votes? That's weak. We've done much, much, much better in the past.

My contention is that $SPCX stock price will end next week lower than the first pricing in the actual market (i.e. not the IPO price) tomorrow. Do you agree or disagree?

@bfrankvalue True. Though their coverage doesn't initiate for a month or two. Tomorrow is all about the hype. The institutions have all seen Elon & Co during the roadshow, while individual investors - and non-investors like my mother-in-law, are all aware and ready, if interested.

@SmallCapKing2 I don't plan to take a position but it will be fun to watch the circus. Also something to consider: you have 20+ investment banks with a vested interest in a good first week. That's a lot of initiating coverage overweight with massive price targets.

@realDonaldTrump's statement that we're not attacking Iran tonight, and what it predictably did for the market, is spectacularly prescient timing for his buddy @elonmusk's $SPCX IPO.

@bfrankvalue But I could be wrong, of course. This is a guess that may become a bet (I'm debating a small short-term short just for kicks to see if I'm right, though I'm generally not a great market timer. In this case, though, I don't see it as market timing as much as investor psychology.)

@SmallCapKing2 Index buying might prop it up until lockups expire.

@bfrankvalue Ah... but $SPCX is not going right into the $SPY. And the indices that add it will have buyers around the open. That just adds to my contention that the stock will be down a week after the opening price. That, combined with every retail buyer that wants to own it then having it.

@pump0x88 I think that FOMO is day 1! When my 85-yo mother-in-law asks me to buy that stock for her (no, she doesn't usually ask me to buy stocks), I know it's all over the news and everyone's talking about the NEED to own it. I saw the same thing at the end of the dot-com bubble.

@SmallCapKing2 Most IPOs don’t peak at IPO price, they peak where the retail starts FOMO buying.

Re: my last tweet, I significantly increased my position in $ASUR. ASUR is at a huge inflection point. Revs & EPS should accelerate meaningfully as avg rev/cust is starting a new surge. The Street's ridiculously low, almost 1/2 my FY27 EPS. Stock is <$9. I think it's worth $30!

I'm adding significantly to the SaaS companies I already own. I've held back from fear that I don't understand, but companies are now telling me investors are aggressively talking to them now, finally looking to differentiate the winners v those ACTUALLY under threat.

Bloomberg TV just asked the question of a guest I suggested Friday: Is the $SPCX IPO a sign of the market peak for frothy stocks in AI, space, etc.? Also note that today seems like yet another day the market doesn't seem to be able to hold its opening "buy the dip" prices.

$ASO had a good Q. Outlook is strong (esp'y w/ lo-end of guide assuming really bad macro). This is a new co, after yrs of transition. SSS growing, leverage is big, INT falling, and ACTUAL shares decreasing >5%/yr from buybacks! Wall St is nuts w/ $50's target. $ASO worth ~$100.

$EGLX / $EGLXF now quietly 150% off its bottom. I still see a ton of room left and am looking forward to what I believe will be a game-changing positive EBITDA in Q1!