stretch

Of course that’s your contention. You’re a first-year options equity trader. You just finished Natenberg, think gamma scalping is a cheat code, and you’re tweeting IV/HV spreads like they’re scripture. Right now, it’s all about Black-Scholes, “vega convexity,” “straddle flips,” you even printed out a Greeks cheat sheet and taped it to your monitor. Next month, you’ll discover Taleb and start saying things like “vol is not risk” in casual conversation. By fall, you’ll hit Sinclair, run an EOD vol surface scan, and convince yourself you’ve reverse-engineered the market maker’s book. Next year, you’ll be in a Discord pump group at 3 a.m., pitching a biotech with no revenue but “post-earnings vol crush gamma” and calling it “asymmetric but theta-rich.” You’ll use terms like “mispriced tail convexity” to describe a meme stock that hasn’t held a bid since the last VIX spike. You haven’t even begun to suffer yet. You haven’t held a 0DTE SPX strangle through a Fed pivot that crushed both sides and left you with negative theta burn. You haven’t refreshed the NMS book at 9:30 a.m. during a 70 VIX print and seen “NO MARKET” flashing red while your P&L bleeds gamma. You haven’t stared at a term structure so inverted you start dreaming in backwardation. You think this is about Greeks. It’s not. It’s about pain tolerance. Come back when you’ve rolled a calendar spread for five quarters, been assigned twice on a LEAP you sold for pennies, and still called it a win because the AI vol spread finally paid. Then we’ll talk options equity.

The bullish side of the oil street has gone from "the paper market is wrong" to "the physical market is also wrong."

@calvinfroedge This is why I follow u sir.

Remember $LAKE? They make hazmat suits Went crazy during covid

I believe it’s somewhat symbiotic too, if IREN can execute, under immense debt loads, then NVDA will wind up needing them more than the market is pricing in. But who’s to say down the road IREN management fails and then NVDA can buy a large portion of them outright.. right now it’s a mere place holding bet to get in ahead of future value. Market will take it fwiw, but structurally this doesn’t look good, seems as if the first part of the week priced in today. 60 is a huge line in the sand I’ve been watching for awhile in this name.

I'll preface this by saying I am not short $IREN...The counterintuitive bearish read on the $NVDA partnership is that NVDA declined to invest any money up front and instead have an option to invest at a share price of $70. Contrast this with the $NBIS and $CRWV deals where Nvidia injected billions into both companies. This shows that Nvidia likely has some skepticism about IREN's ability to execute. Overall, this partnership is an incremental positive for IREN, but it also highlights the credibility / capability gap between IREN and leading neoclouds like Nebius and Coreweave.

$NVDA hasn't invested anything. They got a completely risk-free purchase agreement without committing anything. This is different than a convertible note where they would loan $IREN money and to convert it at $70. People conflate all the nuances of financing structures, it's actually material if they put $2B into a company like $NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit BINGO

I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.

Apparently NVDA needs to help every other small guy because they have no solid funding. Lmfaoooooo

I truly think oil will go to 200bbl, but the equity market won’t care, I’m short certain Single stock names because I believe we are in a fragile earnings window where these names have to have perfect forward guidance. A lot of these hot new tech names are diluting their stock to fund huge projects. It’s all ponzi funding in the first place, but mainly watching the 10y. If it’s goes no prisoner mode I’d anticipate the fear of long term funding to start to reflect in prices, considering the ratios we are trading at.

Can’t run from the truth.

May pivot to a philosophy account dependent on how underwater we finish May

I’d argue that everything is priced in but then I pull up an Intel chart and I’m like ok fuck my thesis could be wrong

The ending of Transformers (2007) with Optimus Prime’s speech over What I’ve Done is permanently burned into an entire generation’s brain.

I had to buy 1x put today. This is nuts, lol

Bob seger while watching some 1 min charts rn

@StretchCapital Thanks for your feedback. We'll be sure to pass along your comments regarding weekly performance data to the appropriate teams for further review. Thanks for choosing Fidelity.

@Fidelity I’m backlogging and calculating weekly returns to obtain a more efficient Sharpe… when can we expect historical weekly returns. Monthly is great and all… but if we are gonna compete with IBKR and HOOD we need to service retail who’s actually gonna be around in the future… :))

Raw sugar futures hit a one-month high as investors cut bearish bets on expectations Brazil mills will favor ethanol over sugar bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Q2 has the potential to set up for a Q4 daily commentary Substack from yours truly. All depends if I can escape selling my time for $

Dolce far niente

20Y and 30Y are over 5% It better be pushed down or we really have a problem

@TripleDTrader @agnostoxxx

The TACO trade is over. It's now the NACHO trade. Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.