rogerᵐᶠᵉʳ🌴

RT @avotoast: peak social media coincides with peak crypto obvious point: less ppl online (particularly under 35 crew) => less eyes on cr…

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

"OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough" this could be a problem for the AI bubble

Brutal.

So what did the « economy is accelerating because fiscal impulse » pundits get wrong? Well for one the very powerful disinflationary impulse. For 2, the fact that we are very advanced late cycle.

stop what you're doing and look at this image. each dot is 3.2 million people. 2,500 dots = 8.1 billion humans. the grey? 6.8 billion people who have never used AI. the green? 1.3 billion free chatbot users. the yellow? 15-35 million who pay for it. the red? that tiny sliver is us. you think the AI space is crowded because you're in an echo chamber of the 0.06%. the real world hasn't even started. wrote a full breakdown on the data, the opportunity, and 7 businesses you can build from this gap today:

이미 인간과의 대화보다 AI랑의 대화가 편함. 일도 더 잘하고 감정조절도 잘함 🤣🤣

I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out. It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive. And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

The day the Solana trenches were born

실버가 ‘모든 자산의 쉿코인화’를 가장 적나라하게 보여주는 중

for the past 2 years ive been deeply paranoid about my kids’ future in the post-agi era. things im increasingly convinced of -> ai will be smarter than the average human before my kids enter adulthood, possibly well before. -> therefore agency and taste r the only things that matter (old adage but obv true). -> the current school system which emphasizes compliance and repetition is already obsolete. -> so what do i need to do as a parent? 1. have them use ai as much as possible. 2. give them as much freedom as possible (agency). 3. expose them to as many things as possible so they know early on in life what they r naturally good at and interested in (taste). 4. give them a lot of time and love. that's it, 2-4 probably applied before ai, but certainly more-so in the next 10-20 yrs.

도 말이 안되는 건 아니고 한번 마셔보고 싶음

김렛을 매우 많이 먹어본 사람으로서 한마디 거들자면 술쟁이인 내가 김렛을 마시는 이유는 샤프한 맛을 느끼기 위해서도 분명히 있지만 진 계열의 무난한 걸 찾을 때 보통 시키는 느낌. 첫잔으로는 별로고 센거 하나 약한 거 하나 정도 마셨을 때 적당한 도수로 쉬고 가는? 그런 의미에서 둥근 김렛

@barTILT 둥근 김렛을 마실 바에는 라스트 위드나 비앙코 네그로니 계열로 가면 되기 때문에 마실 이유가 딱히 없지만 한번도 안 먹어봤기 때문에 먹고싶네요 😂

재밌게도 어제 옛 직원들이 놀러와 다이키리와 김렛에 대한 대논쟁(?)을 했는데 저는 15년 전이나 지금이나 ‘다이키리/김렛의 본령 같은 건 나는 모르겠고 내가 아는 건 다이키리를 주문하는 사람에게 김렛을 내면 안 되고 김렛을 주문하는 사람에게 다이키리를 내면 안 된다는 거다‘는 입장입니다. 그러니까 저는 ’둥근 김렛이나 날선 다이키리도 의미가 있으며 그게 내 날선 김렛이나 둥근 다이키리보다 훨씬 맛있을 수 있다고 생각하지만 나는 그렇게 안 할 겁니다’는 입장이니다.

소고기무국 블러디메리 혹은 블러디 대구 대구/경북식 소고기무국의 코어는-대구 요리 전반이 그렇지만-역시 '깔끔하게 떨어지는 맛'이라 생각. 하여 국물을 최대한 깔끔하게 뽑아(오래 끓이면 결국 단맛이 되고 마는 마늘을 최소화한다거나) 정제하고, 토마토 감칠맛을 살짝 더해주고(블러디메리니까), 약간의 향신료와 보드카를 섞고 고추 후추 참기름을 올려 완성. 베이스 정제하고 남은 소고기무국 퓨레로 가니시 및 뭐 아무튼 용으로 '소고기무국 칩'을 만들었는데 어떻게 서빙할 지 고민중(어제는 그냥 따로 드림). 딱히 뭐 해체주의적 칵테일 분자요리 그런거에 관심이 있는 건 아니지만 '소고기무국에 술마시기'를 고체 소고기무국 칩과 소고기무국 칵테일로 해체해버린 느낌이 있음. 한 손님이 '쌀로별이나 식혜 같은 걸로 쌀-밥의 경험도 해체-재구성해보면 재미있을듯'이라는 조언을 주셨는데 뭐 차차 더 고민해보고...

No Love In The Jungle Hope is what we have when everything else fails @SuperRare 0.1 Eth

Remember DOGE? And how they were going to cut $1 trillion from the deficit? And people believed it?

@heikin00 내용과 별개로 글이 재밌네요 ㅎㅎㅎ

it's a beautiful day today

@nftosmosis 하나 던지고 갑니다!1 youtu.be/FC5KeWKhz4k?si…

@Telamonian_One 요새 들으시는 음악이라도 추천해주십셔!!