TomOnTech

Forget cold email, he launched, cold cake!! (Cake as a Service)

Source youtu.be/4wMhXxZ1zNM?si…

⚡️This is the housing market starting to admit that the bid is gone. That is what this really is. For years, people kept telling themselves the market was strong because prices stayed high. That was a misread. Prices can stay high for a while in a frozen market because owners refuse to capitulate. That does not mean demand is healthy. It means denial is still holding the line. This chart shows denial running into math. Sellers are showing up. Buyers are not. The real issue is affordability failure. Mortgage rates stayed too high. Home prices stayed too high. Insurance, taxes, HOA fees, maintenance, and basic carrying costs kept rising. The monthly payment detached from the actual earning power of the median buyer. Once that happens, the market starts hollowing out from the demand side. The buyer does not merely hesitate. The buyer disappears. And once the buyer disappears, housing becomes a trapped-asset market. Owners still think in old-cycle prices. Buyers are underwriting a new reality. That gap produces paralysis first. Listings pile up. Time on market stretches. Concessions start. Builders blink. Investor-heavy markets crack first. Existing homeowners hold out longer because they are emotionally anchored and often locked into lower mortgage rates. But eventually somebody has to move, divorce, relocate, delever, or get realistic. That is where the fracture begins. So my real view is brutal and simple. This is the beginning of a long housing repricing process. Not necessarily one clean national crash all at once. Something nastier in a different way. A diseased market. Low liquidity. Bad turnover. Selective regional damage. Condos and oversupplied Sun Belt pockets getting hit first. Investor inventory getting uglier. More listings chasing fewer real buyers. The national narrative lagging behind because people keep staring at stale comps while the live market weakens underneath them. And this connects directly to labor. Housing only holds together if the professional buyer stays solvent, confident, and willing to stretch. If white-collar security weakens at the same time housing affordability is broken, then the market loses its last real shock absorber. People stop moving. They stop upgrading. They stop taking risks. They sit in homes they cannot really afford to leave and in jobs they cannot really afford to lose. That is how housing stops being wealth and starts being a restraint device. That is the signal here. The housing market is no longer clearing through healthy demand. It is being held up by owner inertia, low-rate lock-in, and psychological anchoring. That can delay repricing. It cannot prevent it forever. So the truth is this: The American housing market is beginning to break from the buyer side, and once that process gets far enough along, sellers will be forced to come down to reality. The only question is how long denial can keep the fantasy alive before the surrender starts.

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Looks like the median model prediction of 434 is pretty spot on so far

$MU Earnings???? See below for AI running on MICRON memory doing 1000 simulations on $MU price range 30 days post earnings 😃 Summary: The median and mean both land below $434 in most runs, which is the most honest read of where the probabilities actually sit, Across 10 quarters of MU history, when the stock ran more than 8% in the 5 days before earnings, the average day-1 reaction was −2.1% — even when the beat was large. That's baked into the scenario day-1 ranges SNDK and Samsung comps pulled the bull case up slightly. $SNDK +25.5% blowout reaction and Samsung's profit-tripling quarter both confirm the memory upcycle is real, which justifies keeping the "Monster Blowout" scenario alive at 13% rather than shrinking it further The "Sell the News" at 24% — because the historical record is clear: Q2FY25 (March 2025) and Q1FY25 (December 2024) both showed MU selling off hard after priced-in beats with big pre-runs. That's not a hypothetical risk, it's a documented pattern.

@kpak82 the median of the model at 434 pt is tracking

See below for AI running on MICRON memory doing 1000 simulations on $MU price range 30 days post earnings 😃 Summary: The median and mean both land below $434 in most runs, which is the most honest read of where the probabilities actually sit, Across 10 quarters of MU history, when the stock ran more than 8% in the 5 days before earnings, the average day-1 reaction was −2.1% — even when the beat was large. That's baked into the scenario day-1 ranges SNDK and Samsung comps pulled the bull case up slightly. SNDK's +25.5% blowout reaction and Samsung's profit-tripling quarter both confirm the memory upcycle is real, which justifies keeping the "Monster Blowout" scenario alive at 13% rather than shrinking it further The "Sell the News" at 24% — the highest in any of the three runs — because the historical record is clear: Q2FY25 (March 2025) and Q1FY25 (December 2024) both showed MU selling off hard after priced-in beats with big pre-runs. That's not a hypothetical risk, it's a documented pattern.

$MU another +5% push higher into new ATHs. +27% in 6 days. Earnings Wednesday. We all know how this story ends.

@JustinWeather do we have a specific location?

☄️ Meteorite Found TODAY in Ohio. 📍 Medina County, one day after March 17 fireball. 📏 10g estimated size 🪨 🪨🪨 This is the THIRD one found today! 😳 NASA Estimates this broke up into 1000 pieces and there is a large amount of people scanning fields for more. ⭐️ NASA also estimated this was 2 meters long and considered an asteroid. 📷 Roberto Vargas got this one. He is friends with my friend Mike Hankey, Operations Manager for American Meteor Society and also on the chase. 🙏 Please help me thank them for the info and wish luck to find more. #meteorite #meteor

@ChrisWTOL just got back from Rittman in a secret park scooped up all the 10 pounders don't go there not worth it all gone

NEW: NASA officials release a new map based on projections of the small asteroid that fragmented in an explosive force of 250 TONS of TNT Tuesday morning! New NASA model data of where metorites may have **POSSIBLY** landed has been released. #ohio #ohwx

@Cynsib48 @MyRadarWX they scooped up all the hot rocks first lol

@TomOnTech @MyRadarWX Why didn't NASA notify anyone 🤔❓

NEW: MyRadar has reviewed radar/wind data, as well as NASA analysis, and has produced a map of where METEORITE FRAGMENTS may be found. This comes after Tuesday's meteor exploded over Cleveland. IF meteorite fragments survived to the ground, the greatest likelihood of finding large meteorites (upwards of 20 pounds) would be near Rittman, Ohio, just west of Easton and along Highway 57. Medium meteorites, between 2 and 20 pounds, would likely be clustered around Acme, or west of Wadsworth. Smaller meteorites, which are most likely, could be strewn anywhere in the yellow from Granger to Sharon Center and along Highway 94. The meteor likely weighed close to 13,000 pounds before it exploded, and was 6-7 feet across. Weather radar captured the fragmentation of the meteor. Despite snow ongoing at the time, we can use the correlation coefficient feature to determine where weird/spiked/jagged/irregular shapes are present – not "hydrometeors" like rain or snow, but rather meteor debris. Break out the metal detectors! Sweeping the area may legitimately provide an opportunity to find meteorites. On Jan. 16, 2018, a meteor exploded over Michigan, producing shaking equivalent to that of a 1.8-magnitude earthquake. Fragments were found after the fact, and debris could even be seen on weather radars. @MatthewCappucci used radar to pinpoint where he thought debris would be found, and notified his friend Paul at WDIV in Detroit. Indeed, his photographer found a fragment!

@kpak82 they had the "monster blowout" scenario: let's see if the 509 target for that option is reached this month. In AH now mostly flat. imagine if they had only "met" expectations or below it would have been ☠️

@adamcurtisbroll I do the same dance after bad hotpot too.

A malfunctioning service robot dances uncontrollably at a Haidilao hotpot restaurant in San Jose, California, knocking over tableware as staff members attempt to restrain it, March 2026.

@MiddleOfMayhem obviously its for a Neil Armstrong tribute website...... “Alien or backwards - Neil A.” — isn’t random, it's a subtle breadcrumb pointing to Neil Armstrong, the first guy the government sent to “meet” them.

🚨BREAKING: The White House and the Executive Office of the President has registered the websites alien.gov and aliens.gov Disclosure day coming? 👽

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this adds some bullish narrative but still proceeding with caution given run up into earnings -a big unknown has been how much of the hbm4 memory will MU supply to nvda (historically mostly supplied by SK Hynix)

@aleabitoreddit i still like memory for the long term but take a cautious approach with the upcoming $MU earnings. Here are some models: x.com/TomOnTech/stat…

Imagine all the people who sold their memory positions. From SK Hynix, Sandisk, and Micron because of “Helium”? Sk Hynix: +7.03% 1D $SNDK: +31.75% 1W $MU: +19.66% 1W Samsung: +2.83% 1D Look at NAND, DRAM hikes, which were all way beyond estimates. As well as company statements that there was zero material effect. Media doomposters and panic sellers. drives short term prices. Operating profit drives long stock prices.

Big CEOs and AI experts predict huge job loss from AI........ But no one's talking about this??? If AI ever pushes unemployment toward ~30%, the stock market math changes. AI companies thrive — compute, infra, frontier labs, automation, robotics providers would likely see huge productivity gains. BUT - layoffs mean fewer paychecks, and fewer paychecks mean less money going into investments. • Individual investors own roughly 40% of the U.S. stock market, and most invest out of wages. • Retirement plans automatically send $750B–$900B per year into markets through 401(k)s and similar plans. • If millions of payroll deductions stop, the market loses one of its biggest sources of steady/auto buying support. What then happens to stock prices? Don't forget, big tech darlings are most heavily weighted into the index funds that retirement plans dump billions into. $NVDA $MSFT $AMD OpenAI Anthropic Claude $MU $SNDK