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The problem with crypto is that the tech and use cases are real but the valuations are retarded.
We are in the 8th or 9th inning of this cycle. TradFi is not only buying our coins, they are actively embracing the technology with government approval.
There is no doubt in my mind that adoption of blockchain will grow exponentially over the next few years, but valuations are already near their peak and almost entirely based on speculation.
Most people struggle to understand how both things can be true. We are still in the early innings of blockchain adoption, but at the same time we are in the late stages of speculative investing.
The most lucrative part of the cycle is still ahead of us. We are about to enter the delusional euphoria phase where gains come quickly and irrationally.
My view is that we will see one final blow off top on alts, similar to November and December of 2024, followed by a long and miserable bear market for the majority of projects. A few exceptions will thrive, but most will bleed.
Now is the time to start contemplating your exit plan. If you have made life changing money this cycle, secure your freedom and do not get overly greedy. This is not me calling the top. It is me telling you that we are close to the end.
As always, this is just my current mental model. Strong opinions, but loosely held. I am open to being wrong and changing my mind. Just sharing my current thinking.
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