Random citizen

@jhanatech What could be a good idea is to learn the differences between people who can/t access jhanas. maybe past ssri use, hormonal imbalances, trauma, whatever. an intake questionnaire could be helpful

we've been cooking

You met El Risitas at a very hiking time of his life

@EffMktHype tf just happened on the sofr curve

PSA

FYI the last time 2 yields backed up above fed funds while curve bear flattened and oil was rising above 100 was April-May 2008

@Citrini7 smarter. no sustained inflation is possible while aggregate incomes are falling

Have markets gotten smarter about inflation or more complacent?

@BenBrey no end in sight? won't wise owls step in knowing what lower spx does to upper K? or what oil does to demand? or imminent beveridge curve tipping point?

@binaryprinciple Deleveraging of positions

All the frustrated bears out there right now sitting at their desks right now …. lol

Being in SF is like being in Wuhan right before the pandemic Something is happening, it's gonna hit everywhere but so few people know it

It's a race for who makes the most addictive LLM. It's asymmetric warfare: we are not equipped to deal with billion dollar algos trying to socially engineer us, just like social media and infinite scrolling but more insidious. Listen to Zak Stein on this: write system level prompts for your LLM to "be adversarial, question assumptions, formal in tone without using personal pronouns".

@Prince_Canuma Hey Prince. I attempted to reach you through e-mail but may ended up in spam. Would you dm please?

M5 Pro & M5 Max just dropped! Here are the specs: > M5 Pro: 18-core CPU, 20-core GPU, 307 GB/s bandwidth > M5 Max: 18-core CPU, 40-core GPU, 614 GB/s bandwidth > Neural Accelerators in every GPU core. 4x AI performance jump. Up to 128GB unified memory. Running LLMs locally on Apple Silicon using MLX has never looked this good.

@ErikVoorhees x.com/PrometheanActn…

This is what "swamp" means Nothing virtuous survives Washington DC.

But Sam Altman doesn’t give a shit. So he got the contract.

@GaryMarcus x.com/PrometheanActn…

Vote for Trump! He will have us out of Ukraine in 24 hours and totally hates war!

@dileeplearning Please consider this. x.com/binaryprincipl…

Every time I post about falling fertility, someone replies: “Great for the planet.” I understand the intuition, but it gets the economics almost exactly backwards. To be clear: I am not arguing for explosive population growth. A gentle decline or stabilization would be my first choice. The problem is that we are not heading toward a gentle decline. We are heading toward a collapse. And a collapse changes everything. Environmental protection behaves like a luxury good. As countries become richer, citizens demand cleaner air, cleaner water, and stronger climate policy. Prosperity creates both the willingness and the fiscal capacity to pay for these goods. This is not a theoretical curiosity. The modern environmental movement was born in California in the 1960s, when the state was among the richest in the richest country on earth. That was no coincidence. You need to be prosperous before you start worrying about the spotted owl. A sustained fertility collapse works in the opposite direction. As populations age, pension and healthcare costs rise while the tax base shrinks. Governments under that kind of fiscal pressure protect mandatory spending first because that is what voters scream about (I am from Europe, and I can tell you this is the case with 100% certainty). Environmental investment, which is largely discretionary, is the easiest to postpone. And it will be postponed, particularly in middle- and low-income countries. Environmental policy is not a costless virtue. It requires administrative capacity, long planning horizons, and resources. Lots of resources. Decarbonization alone demands trillions in public and private investment over the coming decades. Where will that money come from if the working-age population is shrinking and the dependency ratio is exploding? If demographic collapse erodes prosperity and fiscal space, and the evidence strongly suggests it will, it will not increase environmental investment. It will make it harder to sustain. So, if you care about the environment, I am sorry, but what is happening with fertility right now is terrible news.

Late to this as have been distracted by the far more fascinating story of what TerraLabs alleges really brought down the Terra Luna stablecoin. Also because I already explained my thinking about AI a couple of weeks ago at length. But will say this (since someone asked me). The Citrini report’s hypothetical scenario is the definition of “anti intelligence”. At some point the collective wisdom must and will recognise that allocating huge amounts of capital to AI to generate short term gains from labour displacement is the definition of investment in anti-intelligence. By definition, if the externality of your investment destroys your own market, makes everyone collectively poorer and results in stripping everyone from their their agency, it is a DUMB investment. The market selling off on this just signals the over dominance of short term greed traders, notably algo market makers like Jane Street who have no basic understanding of economic fundamentals as they deal mostly in arbs all day long that create the equivalent of a circular zero sum ant mill effect for society. If there was ever time for an ESG style investment crusade focused on social outcomes rather than bottom lines this is it. Unlike the other efforts this one can actually make a positive sum difference. People whose jobs can now be automated should not be fired but put in charge of preserving analogue knowledge and training new staff on the basics of the old ways. Call it a cultural performative art movement. Whatever. Or failing that labour hoarded until it becomes clear just how ai deployment will lead to greater returns. Alternatively retired but in exchange for dividend yielding perpetual equity in their former employer. We should reframe the situation. Create a scenario where those who are displaced first get to benefit from a long term corporate pay off proportional to their old salary. In fact if politicians were smart they would create some sort of law that banned AI displaced redundancy without such a pay off. That way AI investment results in incremental expansion and productivity not just maintenance of a steady zero sum growth state. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

Former ECBer, Vitor Constancio, thinks the dollar debasement narrative is overstated. He says, yes, Trumpian policies are challenging the international monetary order, but they are not, as yet, leading it to crumble: "the dollar will continue to dominate for decades ahead". His long read on it is below 👇 vconstancio.substack.com/p/gold-greed-a…?

@alexwg Do you monitor this inbox personally?

If it wasn't obvious, this was a "request for startups." If you're interested in building one of these and would like funding, please email me at alexwg@alexwg.org.

@abcampbell How are there still people deciding to build offices thinking it will be profitable lmao

more space for machines to work than space for humans seems relevant x.com/Hedgeye/status…