Capital Misallocation

GOLD - the only true money that has no liability side or need for miners. It is time tested & is what humans go back to in times of stress. "Gold is money, everything else is credit" - JP Morgan A Gold Tweet Compilation In Anticipation of the Return of the King🧵

Check it out 👇 Craig is joining @BenBrey and me on the pod during the last few days of the $SPCX roadshow. Going to be fun.

@binaryprinciple @SquirrelMacro DM me and we can chat on it

@BenBrey @SquirrelMacro Hey Ben. Don't you think the passive flows can carry the market for a while more despite the drain?

I have partcipated in over 1000 IPOs in my career on the buyside roughly for a "context window".. SpaceX is in a league of its own in terms of "Idiocracy". The Squirrel (@SquirrelMacro) and I are back out with more thoughts post S-1 filing - TLDR: Still Bearish. Just remember all the public bulls you are going to hear in deafening volume in the next two weeks most likely are long at 5% cost basis vs deal price. AKA "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."

@BenBrey and I just sat down to chat about the SpaceX IPO. Tune in! 👇 youtu.be/pohrV-DhOiY?si…

@dahu7744 @SquirrelMacro @quantyLS DM me and tell me what you are using and maybe I can help

@BenBrey @SquirrelMacro @quantyLS you got me curious - i did something similar, but it only works with listed equities right now, you make me want to tweak it to see what it'd come up with!

We fed the SpaceX S-1 to an LLM. It spit out a valuation nearly identical to our own from April. Either we're good at this — or the robots are coming for everyone's job. Tomorrow @ 7pm ET we're doing our first-ever LIVE "Ask Us Everything" on YouTube. SpaceX. Markets. Process. The Squirrel's bourbon-and-acorn diet. All topics are fair game. @Benny_Squirrel" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@Benny_Squirrel 🐿️ @SquirrelMacro

Reminder 👇 @BenBrey and the 🐿️ go live in 1 hour….

The harness is definitely the real trick to LLM's - something that isn't quite well understood yet. I actually built an app called Workflow OS to help people with prompting and workflows and chains. Most folks don't realize that is almost 98% of the value of these things yet. Valuation is $400b as it should be based on any reasonable analysis. Happy to see a linear autoregressive optimization least residuals model can come to the same conclusion.

@BenBrey @SquirrelMacro @quantyLS How did you prompt? "What's the valuation based on this S1?" or some 5000 words prompt you put lots of thought into?

@shlonjay Completely agree that we deserve what is coming. It's actually just really insane to me that we have kept this train running as long as we have & that the delta between reasonable and reality is now exhibiting positive accelerating autocorrelation.

@BenBrey Well. If you consider there are a septillion stars in the cosmos, it’s wildly underpriced. We truly deserve what’s ahead…

@shlonjay HAHAHAHA - this is just the dumbest shit I have EVER EVER seen in my life man.

@BenBrey Lemme take a wild guess. 6.5bb ttm ebitda didn’t yield a 2T valuation..

Had zero ingestion from our work - the S-1 was literally only thing we fed into it & had no manual over ride. Our report and podcast in April went into the deal deep but it was really amusing to see a dumb linear autoregressive optimizer model take the public filing & come out at a similar spot - a spot far below the proposed deal valuation.

@BenBrey if that valuation wasn’t massively lower than the implied IPO you may have just built an echo chamber model…

If you are interested in the mentioned financial model come subscribe to our Substacks and download directly. Enjoy! substack.com/home/post/p-19…

After seeing all the IPP power gen stock charts rolling over, I decided to check in on the SMR & OKLO next gen power stonks only to see my buddy @JeffMacke's trademark "Xmas Tree of Death" charts all over. Guess all those bulls are sitting in memory stonks now...LOL

@DevelopAll CLASSIC CLEAN buddy - respect the Head & SHoulders

Not sure that’s the full picture. I’ve had in-depth conversations with senior engineers who also manage large technical teams and build out large projects — and the view I’m hearing is quite the opposite. SMRs sure aren’t a joke; they’re an inflection point. The tech, policy & capital alignment we’re seeing today simply didn’t exist before...

The Classic Clean 🧼 formation has emerged on this POS $OKLO that just filed a $3.5b shelf and whose RC application prompted a Sr NRC official to assert that “(OKLO’s) application was the worst application ever submitted to the NRC.” Right shoulder coming, I am short this pig since $166 & think it’s better short now than then.

Ever heard of "The Capitalism Line"? Ironically we are at the same bloated premium we were at in the 1950s when the Suez Canal event happened... @SquirrelMacro

At the gym & look at the phone to see this Bloomberg headline… AC/DC “Dirty Deeds” playing couldn’t have been more perfect for Da $CRWV Ponzi

GitHub Copilot moves to token based billing on June 1, and its users got a calculator showing their actual monthly token burn - some $39-a-month users have spent $1500 to $5800 in tokens a month. I believe it's indicative of every AI startup. wheresyoured.at/premium-what-i…

Kospi gapping down 5% for 2nd straight session. We chat in depth on the fragile spot equity markets are in from option positioning. Never miss a Benny & The Squirrel Unmissable Sunday Show! @SquirrelMacro

Bernie Madoff told the WSJ he was averaging annual returns of 16.3%. Sam Altman has promised annual returns of 17.5% History may not repeat but it sure as hell rhymes.

In case you missed the segment—- These guys are priceless. Long live the Squirrel!