Chiefingza

What I've been trying to work through is which is the tail that wags the dog, mstr or btc? Is it btc going down on its own that brings mstr to its knees, or is it mstr going down, presumably because the circular financing being done into strc unwinds, which then brings btc with it

@chiefingza I think we bottom on perception most likely not actual forced selling. But cockroaches like to hide. The method of breakage is the loss of the premium to nav flywheel. Like most ponzis.

the parallels are actually scary, russia invaded feb 24th 2022, oil rips, US attacks iran feb 28th 2026, again, oil rips

@2xdog Appreciate the color sir, what are the exact methods of breakage in mstr model that you find similar to the 2022 unwind? Also do you think mstr actually falls or rather we bottom on the perception that its doomed, but it doesn't actually break

@chiefingza I was pretty impressed with the resilience last weekend and almost bought some for a trade. But then I didn’t. It went up and my fomo was very mild so that speaks to my conviction

@2xdog would you buy btc to play a bear market rally or only playing the short side

Blockfi yield was derived from liquidity transformation on gbtc premium. When the premium collapsed the music stopped. While mstr mnav is a similar wounded golden goose, the main difference is the redemption mechanism. There’s a lot of debt in the current stack but it’s not in the form of overnight deposits. So we shouldn’t expect to see the same sort of sudden liquidity cascade. But the mechanism of breakage is exactly the same. And current circular funding rounds like from Strive feel very familiar. Death by a thousand cuts not one head shot. And when it seems like recovery is truly impossible (for months not days) then that will actually be the bottom. And yes of course it will be this October.

He said the forbidden phrase @2xdog

there were signs, machi was up a mil couple days ago

@based16z @majinnbull meditation march

@majinnbull Yeah not much else has been bullish. I think strc retards seems like the only bull case

this is the most bullish thing ive seen all year ngl

Hyperliquid

Similar energy

@2xdog @JasonSTLxYz Would be ironic if we play out the 22 fractal precisely, which is exactly what we’ve been doing

@JasonSTLxYz @chiefingza Hard to predict but btc or mnav needs to go up or else the financing risk just continues to accumulate. Slowly and then suddenly. Once the debt becomes distressed the narrative can then switch to forced btc selling even if it never materializes

let's just list $STRC perps on hyperliquid and rip the band aid off, better to get ahead of it

@2xdog @JasonSTLxYz Eerily similar, but how do you expect this to unfold? seems like pausing the dividend would be the first thing he tries, just feels like strc is more resilient than luna

@JasonSTLxYz @chiefingza OG Alameda pitch

@JasonSTLxYz @2xdog The main reason for why it can sustain now is that saylor has 2 years of cash to pay down preferred debt and he isn't issuing much new debt yet, also mstr is up a bit so he can raise more cash if he needs to, but i agree the overall vibe is negative

@chiefingza @2xdog I posted this not too long ago. Something about $STRC and $MSTR doesn't sit well with me, though I don't think it's quite as extreme as Luna 2.0 x.com/JasonSTLxYz/st…

@PaperFlow8 @iroh_pm what's the best way to visualize this call selling? vol has been somewhat sticky since feb 6

positioning, all d neutral makers have cleaned up their downside (i.e. -8% slide would result in them picking up significant negative deltas which they will likely have to hedge). no risk manager will allow them to be short puts which puts a floor on the dside there's aggressive call overriding flow month-on-month by "yield seekers", provides a nice catalyst to the up if we break 72/2.3 i think the era to play the downside vol aggressively was october 25 to feb 26, and now we are entering regime change where there is a greater probability downticks will be absorbed here vs jan opex

Long your fucking longs

@SplitCapital they might let u into chiltern finally

25% away from being able to talk about crypto publicly again.

@based16z We are long plasma

@chiefingza Would you prefer I shoutout #mybags #plasma

Maybe the real impact of the citrini piece was everyone realized stablecoins are gonna win? CRCL more than doubled now ETHBTC ripping, sky outpeformance, etc etc

@TheSlurper_ @ThinkingBitmex Kinda exactly what a bear market looks like

@chiefingza @ThinkingBitmex 7 green days but not even up 10% 😭

Everyone keeps talking about a bear market Yet all I see is 7 green daily candles Is this what you see in a bear market?