2xdog

@CryptoKaleo Oct 2025

@chiefingza Mstr mnav is all that matters imo

What I've been trying to work through is which is the tail that wags the dog, mstr or btc? Is it btc going down on its own that brings mstr to its knees, or is it mstr going down, presumably because the circular financing being done into strc unwinds, which then brings btc with it

the parallels are actually scary, russia invaded feb 24th 2022, oil rips, US attacks iran feb 28th 2026, again, oil rips

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway

Every single day that this war goes on, the more the economic damage just compounds. This is the key line right here from @tracyalloway bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

@AnalyticsRun That’s a very good question - I have not figured out the answer yet and plan to rely heavily on @cburniske again

To the wise @2xdog I find that you’ve engaged and been vocal a lot, maybe my lucky day. For the potential upcoming cycle and if you were a betting man- which coins may be likely to follow sols path?

@chiefingza I think we bottom on perception most likely not actual forced selling. But cockroaches like to hide. The method of breakage is the loss of the premium to nav flywheel. Like most ponzis.

@2xdog Appreciate the color sir, what are the exact methods of breakage in mstr model that you find similar to the 2022 unwind? Also do you think mstr actually falls or rather we bottom on the perception that its doomed, but it doesn't actually break

@chiefingza I was pretty impressed with the resilience last weekend and almost bought some for a trade. But then I didn’t. It went up and my fomo was very mild so that speaks to my conviction

@2xdog would you buy btc to play a bear market rally or only playing the short side

Blockfi yield was derived from liquidity transformation on gbtc premium. When the premium collapsed the music stopped. While mstr mnav is a similar wounded golden goose, the main difference is the redemption mechanism. There’s a lot of debt in the current stack but it’s not in the form of overnight deposits. So we shouldn’t expect to see the same sort of sudden liquidity cascade. But the mechanism of breakage is exactly the same. And current circular funding rounds like from Strive feel very familiar. Death by a thousand cuts not one head shot. And when it seems like recovery is truly impossible (for months not days) then that will actually be the bottom. And yes of course it will be this October.

@2xdog saylor's strc = luna buying btc with treasury?

He said the forbidden phrase @2xdog

@JasonSTLxYz @chiefingza Hard to predict but btc or mnav needs to go up or else the financing risk just continues to accumulate. Slowly and then suddenly. Once the debt becomes distressed the narrative can then switch to forced btc selling even if it never materializes

@JasonSTLxYz @chiefingza OG Alameda pitch

@ggvaultone1 @ultimaversum @Citrini7 That’s because I am an elder millennial and responded to the wrong thread 😂

@2xdog @ultimaversum @Citrini7 oh ok nvm, i got confused as to what you were replying to

If sentiment flips positive here it seems like crypto has the most torque

@ggvaultone1 @Citrini7 x.com/2xdog/status/2…

@2xdog @Citrini7 above 200d ema would put us btwn 85-90k 👀

@ultimaversum @Citrini7 Above the 200d

But when would it start to look like something to you? At what point would you consider your thesis invalidated? One could argue that this level of monthly RSI has already been significant three times in the past and marked the cyclical bottom. But yeah, we’ll probably at least still sweep the prior range low around 60k, as that’s how every “true” BTC bottom has historically formed. March 2022, on the other hand, might not be most suitable comparison, since the prior bull market in 20/21 had very strong and broad euphoria, and a lot of froth that had to be washed out then by the subsequent LUNA and FTX crash. This time, I don’t really see that much (unrecognized) froth. Sure, you could point to DATs - but people have been talking about those for months now. So it’s probably no longer unexpected and, to a large extent, already priced in. Would be curious to hear your thoughts on that.

@ultimaversum @Citrini7

@2xdog @Citrini7 But what do you think about BTC (and ETH/SOL) reaching levels in the monthly RSI that have historically marked cyclical bottoms? Does that carry no weight for you? That wasn't the case in March '22.

@Citrini7 *You are here

Vaguely reminiscent of July 2021 rn

@phl43 Then ask her if she wants to go steady

Absolutely terrible advice in my opinion.

Schadenfreudemaxxing

@zei_squirrel No context needed

@zei_squirrel HH

the same person, the great Hossein Taheri, who foresaw exactly this moment: