run_egg_run

@FreightAlley It's a bifucated economy, manufacturer is in booming but service is in decline.

Flatbeds surge to all time high of $3.95/mile as industrials rip. I would have never guessed this possible with a weak housing construction market, but here we are. Manufacturing pulling the freight market up.

@business He actually says: Against US. China will fund us.

French President Emmanuel Macron is calling on medium-sized powers to join forces and stand up to the US and China bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@ImtiazMadmood But why Iran still allow Indian ships pass the strait?

The UAE has halted all unofficial and unauthorized channels for transferring money to Iran with the assistance of India. Since the hawala business is controlled from Mumbai, the UAE could not have accomplished this without the support of Indian intelligence.

76 trans Americans ditched the US for Trump's 'tyranny'... and fled straight into Dutch refugee camps. Zero asylum granted. Sleeping in tents and sleeping bags, conditions they call worse than American prisons. The grass wasn't greener 😏

EXCLUSIVE: "Worse Than the Iran Helium Problem"... Semiconductor Industry Faces 'Tungsten Crisis' "Helium can be sourced from the U.S. or Russia. For tungsten, there's nowhere to go but China." While concerns over semiconductor process material procurement — including helium — have emerged in the wake of the Iran war, the semiconductor industry points to tungsten hexafluoride (WF6) as an even more urgent supply risk. Japanese suppliers, which account for roughly 25% of global WF6 supply, have signaled production cuts in the second half of the year. The reason: China's tightening of tungsten export controls toward Japan has made it difficult for them to secure raw materials. According to multiple industry sources on April 3, Japanese WF6 suppliers such as Kanto Denka and Central Glass began notifying Korean semiconductor companies — including Samsung Electronics and DB HiTek — of raw material supply disruptions starting last week. A source familiar with the matter said, "They indicated they can maintain supply through May–June using existing tungsten inventory, but cannot guarantee anything beyond that for the second half." The source added, "They asked Korean clients to seek alternatives such as SK Specialty or Foosung." Samsung Electronics has a higher dependence on Japanese WF6 than SK Hynix, making the switch to domestic suppliers more urgent. SK Hynix is reportedly in a relatively better position, as it already sources some volume from SK Specialty, Foosung, and the Chinese supplier Peric. Meanwhile, some foundries are now under pressure to fast-track process qualification of Korean-made WF6 — a procedure that typically takes over 18 months, parts of which are now being skipped given the urgency. WF6 is a critical precursor used to deposit tungsten films on semiconductor wafers. These tungsten films serve as pathways for electrical signals within chips. While WF6 is used across DRAM, NAND, and logic, consumption is overwhelmingly concentrated in 3D NAND — its vertically stacked cell structure means that at 200 layers, tungsten must be deposited 200 times. A technology transition to replace tungsten interconnects with molybdenum is partially underway in leading-edge NAND processes, but full-scale adoption will take considerable time. WF6 manufacturers import Chinese tungsten powder, react it with fluorine gas at high temperatures, then distill and purify it into high-purity gas for semiconductor use. China accounts for 80% of global tungsten powder supply. Since February of last year, China has imposed an export licensing regime on strategic minerals including tungsten. On top of that, following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan in January of this year, China added export controls on "dual-use" items destined for Japan. Tungsten powder qualifies as a dual-use item — it is both a semiconductor material and a component used in weapons systems including tanks, missiles, and aircraft. As China's export controls have taken hold, tungsten prices have surged relentlessly. Tungsten powder prices have risen 6–7x over the past year. According to Bloomberg, the international benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) — the raw material for tungsten powder — has climbed 557% since February of last year. South Korea remains relatively free from China's export controls, and SK Specialty and Foosung have maintained their tungsten powder imports. However, SK Specialty has reportedly notified customers of a more-than-double price increase for WF6. Foosung is taking the same stance, as the cost structure is identical. An industry source said, "The bottom line is that domestic WF6 suppliers stand to benefit from the windfall."

Investors have piled into defensive positions, contributing to more than $5.2bn of average weekly inflows for high-grade bonds over the past month, according to JPMorgan. ft.trib.al/SwQM13s

@JulianKlymochko Because $5b is still relatively minor. Look into the $380b+ in multi-family purchases made in just 2021. Those properties are now worth 25-40% less. All GP/LP purchase equity gone. Many operators wont be able to kick the can down the road into 2027. $150b vaporized.

Medallia loan value continues to decline, with latest marks at 69. With the term loan in distress, the $5.1 billion of equity has certainly been vaporized. This -100% private equity loss surpasses any private credit loss by an order of magnitude. Where's the media coverage?

If you wanna watch youtu.be/aaSxPvrbBoY

Was listening to the US Naval war college video on the Hormuz strait and one of the former vice admirals said something really interesting that I didn't know. That the strait is actually very difficult to mine because it's very deep and the channel current is very strong making the practicality of mines very difficult to do. And that because of the strength of the currents they couldn't mine it and then be confident in their own tankers being able to sail safely through the strait as well. That in the Iran/Iraq war of the 80's they never mined the strait itself because its simply too difficult to do because of this.

Fun fact: Trump's Moon base is expected to cost $20B. The high speed rail connecting Quebec City and Toronto will cost $90B. And, ironically, the same number of people will use both

@David_Tracey @PurpleDrink_LLC Or it means the real flush hasn't came yet. The position is still crowded long.

@PurpleDrink_LLC I have exactly the same issue. There is nothing abnormal about this pullback. I would argue that despite the bad news it only fell 9% which makes it even more bullish.

People literally want to fight with me over the fact that this isn't even a correction yet let alone a bear market x.com/rev_cap/status…

@PurpleDrink_LLC Hve to imagine that you wanna buy one more flush lower if seen then

When the US Treasury starts calling in regulators, it means something has gone wrong enough to worry Washington. Yesterday, the Treasury convened meetings with domestic AND international insurance regulators to discuss private credit risks. The specific concern: billions in retirement savings managed by life insurers have been quietly moved into illiquid private credit products. Apollo and KKR bought insurance companies to get direct access to that capital. State-level regulation alone can't handle what's now a multitrillion-dollar, cross-border, offshore-reinsurance-linked web. The Treasury calling this meeting is not routine. It's a signal.

BDC redemptions tracker:

@UrbanKaoboy It’s not a silly thing to say. If most of this stuff is performing, there should be enough depth to the mkt for decent bids to come through and funds seeing redemptions can meet them. Where is the APO bid? Stop the doomsayers by demonstrating the validity of the marks.

@balancedtalks @UrbanKaoboy Jeffrey Gundlach said the same thing, in Q2 there will more redemption requests than Q1.

@UrbanKaoboy “Gates exist to ensure no asset/liability mismatch.” That’s the concession. There is a mismatch. The gate is what they do when it surfaces. It managed Q1. The 17% overhang is Q2’s problem before a new request arrives.

Musings of the Day, 4/2/26: Just got off a call with Apollo Private Credit/BDC team, and they corroborated many of my beliefs: - Social media/MSM doomsaying over Private Credit/CLOs massively overdone - Especially "irresponsible" for some of the bank talking heads fanning the flames, some of whom were levered 30x during GFC - Many of the Credit Doomsday scenarios being projected are WORSE than GFC, when actual default experience has been pretty benign - "Is the house on fire?" CLEARLY NOT - Spreads are attractive now - "95% of our loans are cash-flowing (NOT PIK)" - Covenants alone will not save the day; TOTALITY of documentation matters for recovery - "If you're concerned about the CREDIT in Software, then that means the Equity is WIPED." 1000% -- see below: My 2c and reminder to all: - Equity Terminal Value Erosion is NOT the same as Imminent Mass Defaults - IF the Credit Markets are right, the EQUITY Markets would be AT LEAST 20-30% lower imho - CAPITAL STRUCTURE matters, and this is one of those weird situations where SENIOR securities (and their derivatives) have been hammered much more than JUNIOR securities (Equities) - Read my own view of the SAASpocalypse part of the Credit Doomsaying from the trenches here: x.com/UrbanKaoboy/st…

Reminder: many middle-income and lower-income countries heavily subsidize consumer fuel prices as a form of preventing dissent. For example the Arab Spring. This means that elevated oil prices for an extended duration directly drives a sovereign liquidity crises. Guess who is the primary provider of dollar liquidity.

Charles betrayed his wife, now his church, next his country.