Andrew England

Iran sets its price to end the war ft.com/content/869f65… via @ft

New by @cornishft and me: Gulf leaders opposed a strike, but they are now caught between wanting the conflict to end and fear that — if Trump suddenly stops — the war will leave a wounded, emboldened and more hardline Iran ft.com/content/272194…

Day in and out colleagues like Danny but also so many others consistently message that “knowing your enemy” remains key to this war. US intelligence appears to not only understand but also warn about the war mentality in Iran today. It doesn’t look like the rest of the system is reading the reports or listening. “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak".

@SanamVakil why Iran could become the next Iraq ft.com/content/bf9b57…

Trump adviser calls for US to ‘declare victory and get out’ of Iran via @FT as.ft.com/r/e3d6d2fb-bab…

Trump Knew the Risk of Iran Blocking the Strait of Hormuz. He Still Went to War. wsj.com/politics/natio…

This is a prize winning post. 👏

I write in @FT that Iran is playing the long game. In war, geography matters as much as technology. Iran commands the entire northern shore of the Gulf, looming large over energy fields on its southern shore and all that passes through its waters. Its Houthi allies are perched at the entrance to the Red Sea and along the passage to the Suez Canal; Iran is thus perfectly positioned to squeeze the global economy from both sides of the Arabian Peninsula. Those in command of Iran today are veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq and Syria. They are now applying the same strategy to fighting the US on the battlefield of the global economy. Drones, short-range missiles and mines setting tankers and ports on fire can have the same effect IEDs had in Iraq, only with greater impact — disrupting global supply chains and sending oil prices higher. Iran could sustain its counteroffensive more easily and for far longer. Furthermore, a ceasefire alone will not lift the shadow of risk that Iran has imposed over the Gulf, which is now experiencing its nightmare scenario. That is why Iranian leaders are saying they will not accept a ceasefire until Washington fully grasps the global economic cost of waging this war. Businesses, investors and tourists may not return to the Gulf states if they assume that war could resume again. Unless the US is prepared to invade Iran to remove the Islamic republic’s leaders and then stay there to ensure stability and security, confidence in the Gulf will only return if the US and Iran arrive at a durable ceasefire. Iran says it will only accept a ceasefire with international guarantees for its sovereignty, which would probably mean a direct role for Russia and China. It may also demand compensation for war damages and a verifiable ceasefire in Lebanon. The US would then have to agree to some form of the nuclear deal it left on the table in Geneva in February and commit to lifting sanctions. Iran’s leaders entered this war with the goal of ensuring it will be the last one. Either it breaks them or radically changes the country’s circumstances. They are betting on surviving long enough and squeezing the global economy hard enough to realise that goal. Read full article ft.com/content/93b7b6…

“No one has done more with less than the Iranians” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac…

Literally, everyone in the Gulf is asking this question, quietly. These voices will get louder $3.6tn dollars in Gulf money invested in Washington, and America still pivots ideologically to support Israel, its greatest net consumer of US power in the world

New: Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff in a briefing Sunday that Iran was not planning to strike US forces or bases in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first, multiple sources to @NatashaBertrand, @jmhansler & me. Why this matters: It undercuts Trump admin’s argument on Saturday that Iran was planning to potentially strike the US preemptively & posed an imminent threat: #cmm8g18pb00003b6s68xqscio" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">cnn.com/world/live-new…

That is some 'day after' planning...

Turkey’s top diplomat Hakan Fidan says both the US and Iran appear willing to compromise on a nuclear deal—but widening talks to Iran’s ballistic missiles risks “nothing but another war.” Full report: ft.com/content/d6bb9e… (via @cornishft )

Thanks to @cornishft @FT for having me on @gideonrachman podcast the Rachman Review to talk about Iran US talks alongside the domestic and regional implications

US-Iran talks expected in coming days, diplomats say ft.com/content/c8d4d6… via @ft

My piece on the frictions between #Saudi Arabia and the #UAE over regional policies, particularly #Yemen. arabnews.com/node/2629896

The plot against London ft.com/content/8d1fa3… via @ft

I opened a bookshop. It was the best, worst thing I’ve ever done. One of the most beautiful pieces you’ll read all year, or any year. Free access for all. ⁦@FT⁩ ft.com/content/cc77c2…

🚨Scoop: Tony Blair out of running to sit on the Gaza “Board of Peace,” with his future role unclear. Former UN peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov set to head the executive committee tasked with coordinating bw BoP and Palestinian technocratic committee. @cornishft + Me ft.com/content/3f6cdc…

"The Crown Prince’s forthcoming visit is therefore more than ceremonial. It is the right moment to lock in a framework that secures the Gulf, deters Iran, and stabilizes the global economy." - @aliShihabi. @HooverInst hoover.org/research/why-u…