@Rory_Johnston I saw Trump's post as a response to the rehashed news yesterday that got markets excited, IRAN REQUIRES THE TRANSFER OF HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM TO CHINA, i.e., non starter
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Macro Doctrinh
94 posts
Trump ceding ground on nuclear dust.
From *has* to be turned over to the US to
“preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event.”
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: The Enriched Uranium (Nuclear Dust!) will either be immediately turned over to the United States to be brought home and destroyed or, preferably, in conjunction and coordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place or, at another acceptable location, with the Atomic Energy Commission, or its equivalent, being witness to this process and event. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
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@Trader_muru Hi Trader Muru! Thanks for your thoughts… but Gold is already well thru the midline based on weekend news and trading fyi
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XAUUSD
1D time frame:
Price rejecting from midline of falling channel target is still daily structural level at 4380-4350
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isn't Trump's deadline to reach a deal this weekend?
let's see if TACO is in the card this wkd.
Trump is awfully quiet past few days on Iran.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Iran Says 'No Deal' Will Materialize If US Insists On Enriched Uranium Handover zerohedge.com/geopolitical/p…
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@peakvaluelab Sorry I wasn’t clear: what SL are you using / recommending for this trade . Thank you!
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not my personal view on the timing, but I do think a new war phase will begin in early June.
For trading purposes, the portfolio should already position for war scenario.
FYI, i'm usually early in timing, but not by much.
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
US President Donald Trump is expected to decide within the next 24 hours on possible military action against the Islamic Republic, Israel’s Channel 12 reported, citing Israeli assessments. A senior Israeli official told the broadcaster that Israel was preparing for a renewed conflict that could last from several days to several weeks.
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@Tom__Capital Thought the NY sesh was interesting - a headline that would have nuked the market previously was just a blip (Trump considering military action in Iran)...buy risk assets on de-escalation and buy on escalation phase
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The FX market is officially tired of the "Deal/No Deal" carousel. Trump's rejection of the latest proposal has the market treading water, but the underlying trends are loud:
🇬🇧 GBP/Gilts: Starmer’s survival is the only caveat. Political instability is pushing yields higher as 70+ MPs call for an "orderly transition".
📈 Equities/BTC: The drift continues. Momentum > Macro for now.
🇺🇸 US CPI: Everyone’s braced for a hot print, but with the SoH blocked, energy remains the real driver.
Vol remains stagnant, range-bound and choppy until someone actually signs on the dotted line. ✍️
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@MehtaDivya37757 interesting timing for the intervention...get it down now because you need the headroom for the war escalation that you know is coming is certainly one pathway
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So strong is the belief Trump will TACO it’s now a self fulfilling prophecy, especially with a Tuesday deadline. When he threatens to escalate it’s instantly deemed bullish. Such 2026 areas 🌮
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@MehtaDivya37757 NFP was stronger than expected (icymi) …oh, and SoH still closed despite all the copium
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@iGlobalGold Also the "sell the most liquid/performing assets to cover margin calls/losses/intervention/war" dynamic
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Market dynamics are incredible. Over the long run, we know that war is the *MOST* inflationary activity that human beings can engage in. War is thus the *best* backdrop for rising gold prices. Just look at the US Civil War (in which gold prices tripled in 5 years), the Vietnam War (gold 24X in 9 years), or the Iraq / Afghanistan wars (gold 8X in 20 years).
However, we are in a very strange dynamic presently in which war is being perceived as *negative* for gold prices. The "logic" of the market is:
the worse the Iran war gets -->
the higher oil prices go -->
the more inflation spreads throughout the system -->
the less the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates -->
therefore, sell your gold.
It is an illogical and perverse short-term response, amidst a backdrop which is the most bullish for gold we could ask for.
Smart investors will be using any short-term weakness in gold to accumulate, letting the algorithms and shortsighted traders sell to them at better prices.
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It's been risk on since this.
S&P futures +0.90%
AUD/USD +0.23%
Bitcoin +2.38%
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital
*TRUMP TELLS AIDES WILLING TO END WAR W/OUT REOPENED HORMUZ: WSJ Should be helpful 🤨
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@Sorenthek It's almost like short XAGXBT is the Jane Street trade...
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Silver is down and Bitcoin is up and bonds are down… in war.
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@KeithMcCullough Hey Keith… love your work . Are you surprised that metals/miners did so well even as gold vol moved in the fk bucket , chop bucket and now back in the fk bucket ? Thank you in advance !
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Friday was a great day for The Fam with The MFO (Mucker Family Office) Long Only Account printing new ATHs (all-time highs)
I've worked 27 years to get this #GoAnywhere Diversified Portfolio into the proper positioning
If you want to see ALL of my positions daily, you can
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@BujokMr Happy Lunar New Year! :) (unfort hasn't been a happy one for metals.... yet)
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$SLV Closed Feb 5, at $66.69 with futures touching $66.600/oz after hours. Then when I simply say there are no coincidences, and those who are slamming the metals to hit these exact prices, do it as a satanic ritual/symbol—you all look at me like as if I have 2 heads.
You even have mainstream news articles running headlines that Silver is the Devils metal..
Where do you think that came from? Lol
So yeah, Silver is squeezing to $666 on March 3, the Blood Moon Lunar Eclipse!
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@BujokMr I saw you mentioned that - I was a little confused though... Chinese markets are closed, but US markets remain open (ex Presidents Day) and Trump only cares about the latter, no?
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@macro_doctrinh The Chinese new year limits major market fallout, which is why I still believe it’s going down on 2/17
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My predictions for the next 2 months:
1. 2/13: $SPY closes Friday $666
2. 2/16: Strikes on Iran
3. 2/24-2/27: Assasination attempt on Trump or an attack on a US aircraft carrier
4. 3/3: US Congress Declares War on Iran
5. 3/6: Gold $5850 Silver $300
6. 3/11: US Supreme Court Tariff decision ruled unconstitutional
7. 3/11-3/16: Stock Market Crash, Black Friday/Black Monday.
7. 3/18: Emergency Interest Rate Cuts to <1%, QE officially launched.
Bookmark this
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@BujokMr Got it - thank you! Relatedly, I was thinking about the possibility of a 17/2 strike - it *seems* unlikely given Trump's preference to stick to w/e's to limit market fallout...let's see!
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@macro_doctrinh I haven’t necessarily had any big fails per say, but on certain exact moon phases when I believed something would happen, it either didn’t or happened days later
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@mdotjacks25 @leadlagreport Hey Marcus.. genuine question : if they wanted breathing room for a carry unwind, wouldn’t they have left USDJPY much higher into any strike?
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@leadlagreport This has been my thesis for a few weeks now. Japan and the Fed already coordinated to drop USDJPY for some breathing room ahead of Iran strikes.
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Trump strikes Iran.
Iran war spikes Oil.
Surging Oil priced in Yen begins reverse carry trade.
Risk-off as stocks crash and yields collapse.
Emergency Fed cut as long awaited credit event finally takes place.
What do you think?
⬇️
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@PeterRHann1 Hey Peter, I agree there seems to be a lot of shoehorning of narratives to fit the pa. But on the apparent severity of the fix, couldn’t we argue that it was “proportional” to the mtd pump (because that pump was so ridiculous the fix had to be too? )
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Its so completely laughable. I my 31 years of watching and trading markets, I have have never seen a month end manipulation as obvious, as ham fisted, as totally unbelievable, as what I am seeing in metals today.
Any analyst that tries to explain this move as anything other than a market to market exercise is either stupid, paid to lie, or otherwise oblivious.
I was wondering yesterday if rumours of someone blowing yup might have some merit.
The price action today suggests it may have been worse than that. And so the credibility of the bullion market sacrificed, for what, another 28 days for the banking system to stay intact?
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