KING-Trader

US TO PUT DONALD TRUMP’S FACE ON PASSPORTS - FT

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump just decided how this war ends, and it's not how anyone expected... Trump has reportedly told his aides to prepare for an extended U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The president apparently sees both available off-ramps, pulling out of the conflict entirely or resuming combat operations, as carrying significantly more risk than maintaining the current naval blockade indefinitely. This follows separate reporting that the intelligence community was directed to assess the risks of declaring unilateral victory and pulling back from the conflict. Both data points point in the same direction. Trump is choosing to settle into the standoff rather than force a resolution either way. The logic is brutal but coherent. Resuming bombing burns through more JASSM-ER missiles the Pentagon can't replace for years, risks more American casualties, drives oil even higher heading into midterms, and almost certainly fails to extract the nuclear concession Iran refuses to make. Walking away with no deal hands Iran a clean political victory and tells every adversary that American military pressure can be outwaited. Maintaining the blockade keeps the pressure on Tehran, slowly degrades the Iranian economy, and preserves Trump's leverage for whenever a real diplomatic opening emerges. But there's a real cost to "indefinite blockade" as a strategy. American gas prices already at $4.18 don't ease while the Strait stays effectively closed. Fertilizer prices stay 90% above pre-war levels. Global supply chains stay fractured. The Iran war might be morphing into a permanent low-intensity confrontation, with the U.S. Navy enforcing a blockade in perpetuity while Iran keeps boarding ships, deploying cyber attacks, and waiting for the political pressure on Trump to crack first. Source: WSJ

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says Iran just told the U.S. it is in a "State of Collapse." - Iran is asking for Hormuz to be opened immediately - Says Iran is trying to sort out its leadership situation - Trump: "Which I believe they will be able to do!"

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Talks collapsed again over the weekend. Here's where things actually stand. - Trump cancelled Witkoff and Kushner's Islamabad trip about an hour after FM Araghchi left the city - Cited "infighting and confusion" within Iranian leadership as the reason - It's not even clear talks were ever formally scheduled. White House said Iran requested a meeting. Iranian state media denied it - Iran's position remains firm: no negotiations while the blockade is in place - Witkoff is reportedly perceived as untrustworthy by Iranian negotiators, adding another complication - Trump's message to Tehran: "They can come to us, or they can call us" - Araghchi is now on an intensive diplomatic tour: Oman, Islamabad, Moscow and multiple phone calls with regional leaders No return to fighting signaled for now. The standoff continues. Source: CNN

🛢️🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has repeatedly talked oil prices down claiming the war is nearly over, but is that true? - Global oil futures are above $100 but well below the $140 spot price, largely because Trump's rhetoric is suppressing the paper market - U.S. oil companies aren't ramping up production because Trump keeps saying the war is about to end - "By talking down the market so effectively, when the price spike becomes inevitable, it's going to hurt way worse", Defense Priorities analyst - One oil executive told the Dallas Fed the president "sends conflicting signals" making capital planning impossible - "Our hypothesis is the paper market is being manipulated. This will lead to an even worse supply imbalance in the next 12 months" Source: Politico