Tom Capital

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Tom Capital

Tom Capital

@Tom__Capital

Posts are for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR. Follow for TA insights.

Katılım Kasım 2021
128 Takip Edilen28.6K Takipçiler
Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@db_fink Could add Australia to the list and I could guess where it would be
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Ben Robson
Ben Robson@brobson_politic·
Get ready Australia, .... They used COVID19 to mandate human rights violations and they got away with it. Now they're going to use the war on Iran as an excuse to do it again. While Australians will be forced to stay home, again, both Labor and Liberal governments will get off scot-free for their decades of energy policy incompetence. Whilst the war on Iran may be the straw that breaks the camel's back, the real cause of this crisis is decades of incompetent energy policy: - Petroleum reserve: 36 days (instead of 90 days). - Diesel reserve: 34 days (instead of 90 days). - Jet fuel reserve: 32 days (instead of 90 days). - Oil refineries: 2 (down from 8, in mid-2000's). - Oil production: ~200,000 barrels/day (down from ~700,000 b/d). - Base-load electricity generation: 177TWh (down from ~220+TWh, in late-2000's - replaced with low-reliability, intermittent, expensive "renewables" that are highly dependent on external supply chains). Australia's energy policy incompetence has resulted in a country that is highly vulnerable to external forces and events - this is why we are now seeing massive price rises and shortages. NOT primarily because of the war on Iran, but primarily because our governments have made us incredibly vulnerable and fragile.
Ben Robson tweet media
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@52kskew I wonder if Victoria will use lack of fuel to try locking people down again, good fkn luck second time round
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@ZFXtrading Central banks will panic, last time they said inflation was transitory they screwed the pooch and got caught behind the curve, I assume they will do the opposite this time to get ahead of curve yet still screw the pooch 🐩
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Miad
Miad@ZFXtrading·
@Tom__Capital this is end up causing a double dip recession like in the 80s
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
JPM expectations have now shifted to 25bp hikes from the ECB and BoE in both April and July. So much for the global easing narrative this year Will tightness be the new "normal"
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@Timeless_Crypto Not to mention people will have less discretionary money to spend as food, bills, rent, mortgage, energy continues to climb alongside higher rates This is what we call the makings of a global recession
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TimelessBeing
TimelessBeing@Timeless_Crypto·
@Tom__Capital Financial conditions are clearly tightening: credit spreads widening; dollar index rising (demand/liquidity dynamics); yields rising etc. etc. But I was told Helicopter QE was coming en masse? Need I say more?
TimelessBeing tweet media
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
As expected 👇
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dinosaur
dinosaur@dinosaurs1969·
in the 1700s they would’ve executed this guy for this
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Tom Capital retweetledi
Qasem Al-Ali
Qasem Al-Ali@AlaliQasem·
Goldman Sachs just dropped a bombshell: Oil could stay above $100 for YEARS. Here’s why you need to pay attention 🧵👇
Qasem Al-Ali tweet media
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Ryan Scott (Horse)
Ryan Scott (Horse)@TheFlowHorse·
What starts as fiction always has an uncanny tendency to become reality. Which makes sense when you consider everything you see first started as a thought.
Ryan Scott (Horse) tweet media
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@deedsnz When you can't drive your car in the very near future, use that time wisely to research Australias energy security and what is relied on from where to keep this country going
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
$AUDUSD I’ve been a broken record on this, but the math is getting ugly. Australia is facing a triple threat: an energy crisis, aggressive central bank tightening, and a cost-of-living squeeze. The RBA’s move to 4.10% this week is an immediate handbrake on consumers. Between soaring fuel prices (fuelled by Middle East instability) and mortgage repayments jumping hundreds of dollars a month, the "tightening effect" isn't a future risk it’s hitting now and will smash consumption. I expect one more hike to take the cash rate back to previous cycle highs after the next CPI, and after that the rate market is likely to start pricing in rate cuts in H2, you wait and see AUD remains the ultimate "risk-off" proxy and as global growth is revised lower and Asia feels the economic weakness, I expect the AUD to lose the current gains and head back to its 2025 lows in H2
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital

$AUDUSD $ASX Hot take (that shouldn't be): Australia is dead last in the race for energy stability. Given our current supply chain mess and zero energy security, we’re a sitting duck for the global disruption. We’re rich in resources but poor in positioning. Prove me wrong."

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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@TraderCraigo Neither do I. The current environment is still risk off and supportive of the USD broadly
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Trader Craigo
Trader Craigo@TraderCraigo·
@Tom__Capital All he’s done is come back in or demand and the re accumulation that made th high still in a much larger accumulation phase IMO cert don’t think this run is over on USD
Trader Craigo tweet media
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
$DXY USD was taken to the woodshed last night, no clear catalyst, EUR, GBP, AUD all up USDJPY belted close to 3bf back from 160. US yields much lower. Sceptical that this move will persist, at the end of the day the price action is very confusing and erratic which is to be expected in the current uncertain environment Perhaps this is oversimplifying the situation but the fact that energy flow and infra remains at a standstill, and under further threat, it makes it very hard to be optimistic on the risk outlook here. A bit more calm before the storm and shortages start to spread the pain acutely across the globe LTF trading wins the day in the current environment, stay fluid
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
Some longer term perspective on this shitstorm.... Qatar state-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy has published a statement detailing the overnight damage, providing more granularity (particularly around the damage of the GTL plant).
Tom Capital tweet mediaTom Capital tweet media
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Tom Capital
Tom Capital@Tom__Capital·
@TXMCtrades 🎯 not one senior Wall Street executive was charged for GFC, sadly America has prior form here
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