Michael Hodgson

@MichaelJordaan @shanaka86 @grok @grok which countries benefit the most from this new arrangement, and if it effectively confirms an alliance with Iran, will it be good / bad for their economies, considering their trade relations with the U.S., Israel and Western sanctioning nations?

@shanaka86 @grok which countries lose the most from this new arrangement?

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. It is sorted. Iran has built a three-tier access system for the most important waterway on earth. Tier one: allies transit free. Malaysia cleared seven vessels through diplomacy at zero cost. India negotiated zero-fee passage. Pakistan secured clearance for 20 ships. Iraq transits without charge. These countries proved geopolitical alignment and the IRGC waved them through the Larak corridor without collecting a rial. Tier two: compliant neutrals pay. At least two tankers, likely Chinese-linked, paid up to two million dollars each in yuan through Kunlun Bank intermediaries. COSCO container ships attempted the corridor, were turned back on first approach when documentation was incomplete, then succeeded days later with revised paperwork. These are the vessels that prove the system works. They submit IMO numbers, ownership chains, cargo manifests, and crew lists to the IRGC’s Hormozgan Command. They receive clearance codes. They are escorted by pilot boats through the five-nautical-mile channel between Qeshm and Larak. They pay in a currency that does not route through SWIFT. Every successful yuan transit is a live proof-of-concept for non-dollar energy settlement. Tier three: adversaries are denied entirely. The committee plan bans American vessels, Israeli vessels, and vessels from any country participating in sanctions against Iran. These ships do not get vetting. They do not get codes. They do not get escorts. They get the AL SALMI, burning off Dubai, as illustration of what the corridor looks like without permission. But the toll is not the real cost. War-risk insurance is. Premiums have surged from $40,000 per VLCC transit before the war to $600,000 to $1.2 million today, a 30-fold increase, now running five to ten percent of hull value. A VLCC carrying $50 million in crude oil can absorb a combined $3 million in toll and insurance as a fraction of cargo value. A container ship carrying $5 million in manufactured goods cannot. The insurance premium alone exceeds the profit margin on non-oil cargo. The strait has become an oil-only VIP lane. Crude flows selectively for those who can pay the combined cost. Everything else waits, reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, or does not move at all. And the US Navy is not inside the strait. The Abraham Lincoln strike group operates from standoff in the Arabian Sea. Three Littoral Combat Ships sit in the Persian Gulf. Marine expeditionary units are positioned for contingency. But zero American warships have transited the strait or escorted commercial traffic since the war began. The Navy told the shipping industry it has “no availability” for Hormuz escorts. The world’s most powerful fleet keeps respectful distance from a waterway controlled by a country whose navy is 92 percent destroyed because the mines, drones, and shore missiles that remain make close-in presence prohibitively risky. The result is a geopolitical sorting algorithm operating at the molecular level. One hundred and eighty-one vessels transited in all of March. Pre-war traffic was 138 per day. Of those 181, roughly 70 percent were Iranian-affiliated. The remaining 30 percent were vetted allies or yuan-paying neutrals. The 20 percent of global oil that once flowed freely through this strait now flows selectively, conditionally, and in currencies chosen by Tehran. Iran lost its air force. It lost its navy. It lost two thirds of its production capacity. It retained the only thing that matters: 39 kilometres of coastline on both sides of the narrowest point. The US Navy will not enter. Chinese tankers will. And the sorting algorithm processes another vessel, collects another yuan payment, and demonstrates once more that geography is the one military asset that cannot be degraded by precision strikes. The strait is not closed. It is under new management. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@jozivsjozi Not even the trees are immune.

32 Rockey Street. Johannesburg. South Africa. 2013 vs 2025. Context below.

@DailyInvestorSA The Laffer curve

South Africa’s shrinking taxpayer base could force SARS to increase enforcement, raise taxes, or consider new measures like a wealth tax, placing greater pressure on remaining taxpayers and businesses. dailyinvestor.com/finance/124980…

@jozivsjozi Just wow

Continuing the recent focus on rail infrastructure. Update: Natalspruit Train Station, 2017 vs 2023

@SongezoZibi @grok According to the latest SAPS Q3 2025/26 crime stats (Oct-Dec 2025), taxi-related murders nationally totaled only 52 in the sampled cases, with Gauteng at 32 and Western Cape at 13. Does crime data actually support exporting WC expertise rather than mocking it?

Apparently the Cape Town MMC will show Joburg how to achieve safe streets.

@mybroadband JvR, living rent-free in the heads of so many, since 1652.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's strange comments about Jan van Riebeeck and shipping routes President Cyril Ramaphosa says Jan van Riebeeck used trading routes which have always existed to come to South Africa to plunder. mybroadband.co.za/news/governmen…

@Newzroom405 And so it begins. RIP Gautrain.

[WATCH] Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi announces that the government will, in the next few weeks, announce a contractor to expand Gautrain lines to Springs, Atteridgeville, Fourways, and other economic areas of the province. #Newzroom405

Amazing. theaustralian.com.au/business/techn…

@patrickbetdavid Socialism’s great, until you run out of other people’s money. RIP NYC.

Mamdani has proposed to lower the exemption on the death tax from $7.1 million to only $750k. He also wants to increase the death tax from 16% to 50%. NYC has 123 billionaires with an average age of 67 yrs old. If it passes, NYC will have a $1 trillion+ exodus in wealth.

@RupertLowe10 Fair enough

The message to all guests in our country must be this. Speak English, pay tax, contribute, respect our way of life, follow our laws and love Britain. Do all that, or go home.

@BROKENBRITAIN0 To the gallows

You see this migrant? Laughing and dancing. He had just stabbed a British woman to death. He followed a worker from his tax payer funded hotel, Rhiannon Whyte, and stabbed her 23 times with a screwdriver, then went back to his hotel dancing as she bled out. This is who the left are welcoming, this is who the government is importing and protecting (on your dime), THIS IS YOUR ENEMY ⚠️ RIP Rhiannon Whyte 🕊️

@geoffreyyork @Edpitsi Apples-to-oranges whataboutism, at best.

The new US ambassador to South Africa, who told a South African audience "I don't care what your courts say", now says he was merely expressing a "personal view." Reminder: the SA ambassador to the US was expelled by the Trump administration for expressing a personal opinion.

@eNCA Huge surprise

The ANC and EFF have condemned the latest attack on Iran. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran, that targeted top military government sites including in the capital Tehran. enca.com/news/south-afr…

@SongezoZibi It’s not surprising you said nothing about Iran killing its own people. Must be nice.

It must be nice to be able to go around the world attacking countries and killing people with no consequences at all. One day soon the tide will change.

@BRICSinfo Did they call on the UN to hold an emergency meeting when they massacred thousands of their own people?

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇳 Iran calls on the United Nations to hold emergency meeting. "If the international community does not respond to the aggression, it will be the end of international institutions."

@RupertLowe10 Well done Rupert. Keep fighting the good fight against evil. Never give up.

I have received an incredible amount of abuse for holding our rape gang inquiry, the whole team have - we came under vast pressure to cancel it when Labour announced their ‘effort’. I have never been more convinced that we made the right decision. What we have released, particularly through our statement yesterday, is just scratching the surface. More women have come forward. There are so many more stories to tell. I can say that as a team, we are feeling more determined than ever. This is a national network of evil. No other word. I hope that the British people are starting to understand just how deep the poison runs. A comprehensive report is being published, and then we aim to put people in prison. That’s our plan. The establishment doesn’t like it, but we are just getting started.

@MaxduPreez Yet another one that doesn’t understand the difference between paper NAV and cash flow. Just sell your house! 🤡

Sell and buy a cheaper house outside the suburbs for the super wealthy if you can't pay the rates. I live in a middle class suburb of Cape Town. I'm not a DA voter, but I'm satisfied that I get good services for my rates and happy that some of it is used for poorer areas

@DeanMacpherson CPI is 3.6%, yet somehow a 100% rate increase is cool. Makes total sense, to a socialist.

@DeanMacpherson When politicians tell you that they don’t understand the difference between paper NAV and cash flow, believe them. 🤡

You forgot to mention the house is worth R50 million and in Bishopscourt.

🔴TERRORIST WHO PARTICIPATED IN OCT. 7 MASSACRE ELIMINATED Ahmad Bayouk, who infiltrated the Re’im base during the October 7 Massacre, was eliminated by the IDF & ISA after operating to rebuild terror capabilities and advance attacks against IDF troops. Also eliminated: Azem Abu Huli, Head of the Islamic Jihad’s Nukhba Array in the Central Camps sector, who was responsible for procuring weapons and overseeing terrorist training.