Osinkokuningas

There's a reason $IREN is down -7.9% YTD. While $NBIS is up 61.1% YTD. The amount of delusion buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM is unreal. Even after this, IREN AMC bagholders still can't admit they're wrong? Markets are the biggest arbiter of truth, and massive performance difference between Nebius and Iren is telling. As I said before, the marketcap for $IREN will keep going up, but people's share values will decrease. That's how ATMs work. Excessive ATMs are not accretive to current shareholders. It's better to let all existing bagholders get wiped out first, then go long after the ATM is finished.

Brazil just closed at 5-year highs. And it's about to break out into decade highs. The base in $EWZ is incredible. Ten years of sideways action. Culminating in an explosive breakout to the upside. And the story makes sense. Brazil is majority banks, commodities and energy. All three are poised to benefit through the end of the decade. We've had a position in Petrobras $PBR for weeks. We sold the double at 100%. The rest is completely risk-free. But we also made a bigger bet: Brazil as a whole. Three secular tailwinds all converging at once.. 1. Emerging market $EEM stocks are breaking out into all-time highs, outperforming US domestic $SPY 2. Commodities like oil, rare earth minerals, and agricultural outputs are being repriced higher as we move into a multi-polar world 3. Brazil is the premier economy in LATAM and nothing comes even close Earlier this week we went long all of Brazil. A blanket bet encompassing the entire country. We're already up 30%. And I expect a whole lot more. Think outside the box. Go to where the money is flowing. And one of those areas.. is Brazil.

Ei tota Ireniä kestä. Mahotonta.

Chinese carmaker BYD unveils a recharge as fast as filling up with gas

$EQR.AX is one of the most interesting plays I have seen this year. It was quite unknown but has been slowly getting more attention lately. Here is why I bought $EQR.AX: Currently the tungsten price sits at approximately $3000/mtu. Last year, it was around $350/mtu, so the price has skyrised. This is mainly caused by China export controls and high demand from defense and AI/memory. $EQR.AX looks very cheap despite the rally it has already had. With the tungsten price sitting at $3000/mtu, $EQR.AX could be looking at over 1.35bn AUD revenue for FY2027. Their break-even point is somewhere between $350-500/mtu, so the net margins on this revenue will be very high. Their net profit could end up above 1.1bn AUD for FY2027. The current market cap is 1.75bn AUD, so they could make well over half their current market cap in the coming fiscal year. The cheap valuation is staggering. Compared to its peer in the tungsten industry, $ALM is 17x more expensive per tonne of tungsten production than $EQR.AX. $EQR.AX screams like a buy opportunity, with AI demand soaring and the US projected to increase its defense spending significantly in the coming year, which strengthens the already soaring demand for tungsten.

Rotterdam APT jumped US$150 (5.66%) at SMM to US$2,800/MTU.

So just checked out the comments... $P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC. How it likely maps: -> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers) -> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries) -> $LITE (OCS Switches) -> $GOOGL (TPUs) However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level. P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company. €3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet. That being said: -> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM). I do personally own shares, after reading this. Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable. But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out. Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%. All credit goes to follower comments. But TLDR: Supply Chain Mapping -> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis. As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially. Again, not recommending this at all. Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.

It’s always funny to see Wall Street completely fumble hyper-growth stocks. The street is expecting $IREN to make ~$8.4b in revenues by FY 2030, with EBITDA margins of just ~68%. Analysts are completely mispricing $IREN's 4.5 GW site-portfolio and multi-GW pipeline beyond that. I went ahead and modelled out my own near-term projections for the coming 2 years, using the following assumptions: Childress: 300 MW: MSFT Deal 450 MW: air-cooled (B300), fully ramped by Q3 2027 British Columbia: 160 MW: Mostly air-cooled, fully ramped by Q1 2027 Sweetwater 1: 600 MW: Vera Rubin (VR200) fully ramped by Q1 2028 Results: 👉 2027 = ~$8.3b (Rev) / ~$6.6b (EBITDA) 👉 2028 = ~$12.7b (Rev) / ~$10.3b (EBITDA) One of Wall Street’s problems is that they only price what’s directly in front of them. My 2027 revenue estimates are basically Wall Street’s 2030 projections. 🤦🏻‍♂️ And to be honest, my assumptions are actually very sensible. For the air-cooled deployments across Childress & BC, I used revenues BELOW management’s guidance. For exact modelling inputs and FCF / net income projections up to 2030, refer to my new $IREN deep dive on Substack. To be clear, I’m much more confident in my 2028 projection, since Sweetwater’s ramp could be more heavily skewed toward H2 2027 and H1 2028 instead of the simplified linear ramp approach I used. However, the point remains: Wall Street is completely dropping the ball on this one. What do you think will happen once $IREN announces its next hyperscaler deals at Childress and Sweetwater? → Massive re-rate incoming, as Wall Street scrambles to upgrade their idiotic projections.