Walnut Ave Value

The US Energy Secretary confirmed in an interview today that The US has been selling short term oil contracts. Arbitraging longterm contracts earned 20% yield on the SPR release, which happened to start today. Flattening the futures curve will keep oil prices higher for longer.

Is there anything worse than a crying baby on a plane? I wish parents would control their children. It’s so disruptive. I refuse to believe a baby cries for 10 hours. At some point this is just bad parenting, right?

New York Times, citing officials: Netanyahu relied on Mossad's optimism about an uprising in Iran to convince Trump that regime change was a realistic possibility.

BESSENT: '50 DAYS' OF HIGHER PRICES FOR 50YR OF NO IRAN NUKES

Day in the life of a late 30s guy in the suburbs (Sunday edition/2 kids): 6:00am— tip-toe downstairs to make some coffee before everyone wakes up. notice an injury you acquired while you were asleep. 6:10— take your first sip of coffee. take a deep breath and— 6:11— hear your wife yelling your name to come and get the 4yo bc she just woke the other one up 6:11— pretend you don’t hear her so you can have just one more sip of coffee in peace 6:11— “I know you hear me! Hello???” 6:12— take your kid downstairs. “What would you like for breakfast sweetie?” “I want pancakes daddy. I love pancakes!” 6:13— make a fresh batch of pancakes for the family. 6:20— “here are your pancakes sweetie :)” “I don’t want pancakes” “huh? You literally said ‘I want pancakes daddy’, and that you love them?” “PANCAKES ARE YUCKY” 6:21— take a third sip of your coffee. it’s cold. your wife yells your name again from across the house.

Goldman Sachs just published the list of jobs AI will eliminate first. 300 million jobs globally. 25% of all US work hours. And that's not in 10 years, it's starting NOW. Highest risk of displacement according to Goldman: 1. Computer programmers 2. Accountants 3. Auditors 4. Legal assistants 5. Administrative assistants 6. Customer service reps 7. Telemarketers 8. Proofreaders 9. Copy editors 10. Credit analysts. 46% of all office and administrative tasks can be automated. 44% of legal work. 37% of architecture and engineering. 36% of science. 35% of business and finance. These aren't warehouse jobs. These aren't factory floor positions. These are the careers parents told their kids to pursue. "Go to college. Get a degree. Get a desk job. You'll be safe." Goldman Sachs just told you that desk is getting emptied. And the data is already showing up in real time: Tech employment as a share of the US economy has dropped below its long-term trend for the first time since records began. Marketing consulting, graphic design, office administration, and call centers are all seeing employment growth fall below trend. Younger workers are getting hit first and hardest. Goldman's lead economist said it directly: "The big story in 2026 in labor will be AI." But here's what the report doesn't mention: Goldman Sachs is one of the biggest investors in the companies BUILDING the AI that eliminates these jobs. They underwrote OpenAI's funding rounds. They're advising on the $700 billion in AI infrastructure spending this year. They profit from every merger, every capex deal, every stock offering tied to AI. The same bank telling you 300 million jobs are at risk is making billions helping the companies that will take them. And the corporate playbook is already locked in: Meta is firing 16,000 people. 20% of its entire workforce. While doubling AI spending to $135 billion. Stock went up 3% on the announcement. Block fired 40% of its staff. Stock surged 24%. Atlassian cut 10%. Same pattern. Over 61,000 AI-linked layoffs since November. 764 people per day losing their jobs in tech alone. Every single time a company announces mass layoffs and says "AI," the stock price goes up. Wall Street has created a system where firing humans is the most profitable announcement a CEO can make. Goldman's report says the jobs most PROTECTED from AI are air traffic controllers, chief executives, radiologists, pharmacists, and members of the clergy. Notice who's safe? The people at the top and the people praying. Everyone in the middle is exposed. The entry-level white-collar worker who spent four years and $200,000 on a degree is now competing against software that works 24/7, never takes vacation, never asks for a raise, and improves every single week. Goldman even admits younger workers in their 20s and 30s entering knowledge and content creation sectors will be "most affected." The generation that was told AI would make their lives better is the one getting displaced by it first. And it gets even WORSE: Goldman says if this displacement happens faster than their 10 year base case, the economic impact "could be much larger." Basically: if companies move fast, which they already are, the fallout will be worse than their projections. They're already moving fast. $700 billion in AI infrastructure this year. Mass layoffs at every major tech company. Stock prices rewarding every single one. The report is 50 pages of data telling you exactly what's coming. Most people won't read past the headline. But you just did.

Given that several companies make advanced chips, but no companies have ever made fully reusable rockets or achieved SpaceX scale, I think Starship is harder, but we shall see. Terafab will technically be two fabs, each making only one chip design. This greatly simplifies process flow and allows more linear, adjacent movement of the FOUP. A super high production rate allows us to test very quickly what steps can be deleted, simplified or sped up, even after the design is fixed. Current fabs are extremely conservative, operating on rigid historical heuristics, which are mostly, but not all, correct. Anything that is a rate limiter at the machine level means that machine will be redesigned, unless already at limit of physics. Having new iterations of a chip design be produced every day in the research fab (with <7 day lag) means being able to try out many high risk, high return ideas. Etc In any event, there is no other way to reach extreme scale, so either we make Terafab or we will be stuck at the ~20% chip/memory output growth per year of the current industry.

WELKER: Do you think it's appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of a Bronze Star, Purple Heart recipient who served in Vietnam? BESSENT: Neither one of us can understand what has been done to the president and his family WELKER: But is it appropriate for the president to celebrate the death of any American citizen? BESSENT: Give what has been done to President Trump and his family, it is impossible for either of us to understand what he's been through WELKER: So you don't think there's anything wrong with a post saying, 'Good. Robert Mueller's dead'? BESSENT: We should have empathy for what's been done to the president and his family