Walt Frick

.@brookefox91 and @wfrick analyze research and ideas presented at #StiglerAntitrust23 from scholars like Oliver Hart, @sanjuktampaul, and @TomValletti, that question the value of mergers and ask: How would businesses react to a world with fewer mergers? promarket.org/2023/06/02/a-w…

Worth reading re Biden’s Second-Best Economic Agenda … promarket.org/2023/03/28/bid…

"The fact remains that the #Biden administration was able to accomplish through #industrialpolicy what the Obama administration couldn’t get done with a carbon price," writes our Contributing Editor @wfrick: promarket.org/2023/03/28/bid…

A roundup of prediction markets to watch related to SVB and the fallout nonrival.substack.com/p/prediction-m… from @ManifoldMarkets & @GJ_Open

Really nice article on @inboxcollective about my latest project @nonrival_pub which brings crowd forecasting to an email newsletter inboxcollective.com/fwd-progress-n… Give it a try: nonrival.pub

Disney and Netflix are strategic mirror images of each other: nonrival.substack.com/p/disney-vs-ne…

Who will pull ahead in the streaming wars this year, Netflix or Disney? nonrival.substack.com/p/disney-vs-ne…

36 predictions for 2023: A roundup covering streaming, EVs, macroeconomy, geopolitics, and more nonrival.substack.com/p/predictions-…

@palewire @ndiakopoulos yea good point. I don't think the accuracy helps decide *whether* something is worth covering. if a question about 'what will happen' is deemed worth covering, prediction markets can probably help. But *whether* it's worth covering has to be answered all the usual ways

@ndiakopoulos @wfrick Just to keep the convo going: In a more fundamental way, what makes predictions valuable to readers? Couldn't you make a criticism this is just another form of infotainment and punditry, even if it's more accurate?

Another dimension of predictive journalism would be to incorporate more information from prediction markets, as @wfrick argues here: niemanlab.org/2022/12/journa…

My @NiemanLab prediction for 2023: Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets & forecasting niemanlab.org/2022/12/journa… Like @Kalshi @INFERpub @GJ_Open and @nonrival_pub nonrival.pub

The Forecasting Research Institute now exists (I'm a co-founder). forecastingresearch.org Its mandate is to advance the science of forecasting for the public good--& is now hiring research and data analysts, content editors, and RAs. forecastingresearch.org/apply Please spread the word

Fed officials now expect substantially higher interest rates, less growth, and more inflation "under appropriate monetary policy" in 2023 than they did back in September: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…

Join the Nonrival Forecasting Challenge! This Challenge explores key questions about the economy or tech with new ones added weekly. Learn more and get started here: goodjudgment.com/nonrival/

We are excited to announce that the INFER #ProForecaster Program will continue into the 2023 season! You may be eligible to apply if you have experience in synthetic biology, AI or other specialty areas. Check out our latest blog for more information: bit.ly/3UOJphX

Announcing the Nonrival Forecasting Challenge on Good Judgment Open! The Challenge explores key questions about the economy or tech, and insights on these topics can be found weekly in @nonrival_pub. Learn more and get started here: goodjudgment.com/nonrival/

@nonrival_pub is now on Good Judgment Open! Read the newsletter, make a prediction, then track it over time and keep forecasting on @GJ_Open. Newsletter signup: nonrival.pub

This isn't even GPT-4, these are just the breadcrumbs, just wait for dessert:

A huge deal for writers, as I've believed for the last 6 years. And a lot depends on what we do with it: Will we create better, more accurate and nuanced knowledge with these new tools? Or will we descend into automated chaos?

why I started @nonrival_pub: "Truth is the lovely echo of our noisy, contending ways of being wrong." nonrival.substack.com/p/why-i-starte…