DoomedCapital

@Wajahat @JamesChristoph I think James meant that most of these projects have tokens, but they’re basically memes with no claim on profits. A few are trying to return value to holders and show alignment, but they’re not earning much in this market so token valuations still look inflated.

Number going up is a different thing tho ain’t it. Agree tokens are a tough to hold right now but that is a token problem not a DeFi problem. If you want to trade, lend, borrow, earn, use, these businesses have created great solutions. Many of these are high quality businesses with cash flows. Valuations of tokens are still high, I like to think the cash flows of many of these businesses make their tokens interesting soon enough.

DeFi outside of Hyperliquid is still phenomenal. Every year, new innovations come from within our industry, don't forget the good stuff we have! - Yield products (@pendle_fi, @ryskfinance, @ethena, @maplefinance, @yearnfi, @Neutrl) - Derivatives (@DeriveXYZ, @variational_io, @boros_fi, @nadoHQ) - RWAs (@spreads_fi, @xStocksFi, @PreStocks, @tethergold, @JarsyInc) - Money Markets (@aave, @Morpho, @eulerfinance, @kamino) - Credit (@USDai_Official, @capmoney_ @3janexyz) - Banking (@ether_fi, @hyperbeat) - Privacy (@RAILGUN_Project) - AMM innovations (@Uniswap, @CurveFinance, @yieldbasis, @ValantisLabs) - Intents (@CoWSwap, @NEARProtocol) + a dozen more I've probably missed. There's a new era coming for things like DeFi with tokenised equities and prediction markets.

@JamesChristoph @Wajahat @pendle_fi @ryskfinance @ethena @maplefinance @yearnfi @Neutrl @DeriveXYZ @variational_io “A few are, but not much, especially in this market

@Wajahat @pendle_fi @ryskfinance @ethena @maplefinance @yearnfi @Neutrl @DeriveXYZ @variational_io Yeah none of these make money for token holders try again mate.

@philgg93 @0xGeeGee You may be right, and I suspect it will ultimately be up to lawyers and the courts to decide. However, I still believe it sets a bad precedent, with direct implications for the money markets and the entire vault ecosystem.

@0x5ar @0xGeeGee The thing is, in a disputed case you need a primary source of truth. In this case, that would be the T&C, they can't be e.g. private agreements because all the assets were freely mintable. RLP did its job as outlined, had many DD days. Based on this, the case is out of scope.

IMO the most important question, industry wise, aside from who will trust curators that kept allocating post exploit, is what will happen to RLP. I say this just because we’re at a fork road with tranches and this may shape up a bit expectations at least for native players, even though in reality every case is on its own. For once I say this without a horse in the race

@SniperMonke01 x.com/i/status/20362…

A lot of people finding out (the hard way) that you don’t have to be constantly in a position. Imagine being highly leveraged when a single tweet can destroy your PF, especially when the sentiment can be reversed within the same trading session. Maddening.

@0xnocta @koolkrypto223 Rwa looping (and possibly pointsmaxxing), Boros as a hip3 exposure/beta narrative

@koolkrypto223 why bullish on pendle token? protocol is great but with crypto being down and no demand for pointsmaxxing via pendle its hard to see it outperform

There are several DeFi tokens I'm admittedly down 25-50%+ (so even more astronomically down bad vs the opportunity cost of $HYPE) that I think outperform $HYPE and $BTC to the upside if we get a real risk on move: $AERO $SYRUP $PENDLE Could do a write up on all 3, but it might just be Stockholm Syndrome at this point. Anything that doesn't start to perform soon gets sold to $HYPE or $BTC.

@SaulCapital @MrCampbell @SeiNetwork I don't think it's even 1700

@MrCampbell @SeiNetwork would bet not even 17k people use Sei daily lmao

Firstly, the number is wrong. @SeiNetwork had 1,700,000 daily active users over the last thirty days. And secondly, fees are intentionally kept to almost zero while we grow out the ecosystem and incubations. This is like the 30th time I’ve seen this low effort, low IQ take.

Definitely not worth it. These kinds of strategies only make sense if the yield is very high or if there’s a potential outsized return from an airdrop you’re bullish on. Right now, I’d say the r/r is much better if you just naked long with part of your PF rather than farming 20% fullport while taking exposure to USD1, Dolo, and compounded SC risk.

this one is the most extreme iteration i have found so far, but there are plenty of "stablecoins" or funds with very similar strategies where if u loop their coin for 20-30% APR and something goes wrong u get zero'ed example: a popular fund/stablecoin leveraged 12x, has 40m in its "junior tranche"? Well how about 72m exposure to fluid? Fluid gets exploited jr tranche immediately zero'ed but u were leveraging for 15% APR and get zero'ed on your loop as well and the market gets bad debt lol another mainstream fund (no jr tranche) u leverage 12x and get exposure to: Morpho Fluid Euler Dolomite USD1 Aave for 20% APR one of them gets 0 and its bye bye there are many many similar examples across mainstream defi strategies/funds always better to avoid strategies that have plenty of concentrated risks instead of all of them at the same time, u could do for example: ethena aave (and pendle perhaps) sky and morpho maple and aave susdai and fluid etc etc for similar rewards and a lot less concentrated risk mixing all together is not worth it at current yields imo

Exposure to: Aave Morpho Pendle Fluid Euler Ethena Maple you get 30% APR but if one of them gets exploited your position gets zero'ed. Would you take this trade?

Chamath spiritually belong to crypto

@TokenBrice This one? x.com/i/status/20199…

There is a Russian Ruble (RUB/₽) stablecoin, boasting ~$500M marketcap (~99% on Tron), and not properly processed on DeFillama & co: A7A5 Want to be in the known about all the obscure alt-peg stablecoins? There is no better place than Pharos: they are growing and diversifying

@rodeo_crypro I agree, but I don't think it was entirely their fault. We all played stupid games and got stupid outcomes, at the delight of cex-es and early investors.

@0x5ar i dont think they can be absolved if they tge-ed at insane valuations and their token is down 95%

this is the shortlist

@rodeo_crypro Near, Arbitrum, Starknet, ZkSync are still trying, shipping stuff. Midas team is also trying and they didn't launch a token just to extract

@0x5ar mantle and tao dont belong. i cant include monad because they raised $200m and half their team quit once the product actually launched.

Moonwell's history of exploits: 10.10.2025: Chainlink’s oracle feeds priced AERO, VIRTUAL, and MORPHO lower compared to the DEX pool prices on Base. An attacker repeatedly flashloaned USDC/cbBTC, borrowed underpriced assets from Moonwell at 85-88% LTV, sold them on a DEX for more than the value of their flash loan, repaid the flash loan, and profited from the difference. While 10.10 was an unprecedented event, you clearly shouldn’t be able to borrow such volatile tokens at 85-88% LTV. Ended up with >$12M in liquidations, $1.7M in bad debt. Incident Summary: forum.moonwell.fi/t/anthias-labs… 04.11.2025: The wrsETH market priced collateral as (wrsETH/ETH) * (ETH/USD) using Chainlink feeds. The wrsETH/ETH oracle was based on market prices, not the exchange rate. Balancer, back then a source of most of the liquidity for rsETH got exploited a day earlier, and was likely the cause of the feed outputting an absurd value: 1 wrsETH = 1,649,934.60732 ETH. Same attacker as 10.10.2025, although we haven’t seen any evidence of them actually manipulating the oracle - only taking advantage of the mispricing. They’re clearly constantly scanning Moonwell for extractable value. $3.7M of bad debt. Incident Summary: forum.moonwell.fi/t/wrseth-oracl… Discussion around the oracle's failure: x.com/omeragoldberg/… 15.02.2026: Another badly configured oracle feed. cbETH’s price was set to cbETH/ETH ($1.12) instead of (cbETH/ETH) * (ETH/USD). 1096 cbETH liquidated, $1.78M of bad debt. The worst part is that the exact commit that caused the mispricing was co-authored by Claude: x.com/irboz/status/2… The PR: github.com/moonwell-fi/mo… Incident Summary: forum.moonwell.fi/t/mip-x43-cbet… Moonwell is not a serious lending market. They have failed too many times with their oracle setups. Do. Not. Use. It.

@0xmjt Fair, but with ~3.5% base funding (like Lighter recently introduced), retail gamblers flowing into markets globally, and certain markets staying hot and volatile for months, equity perps might actually become interesting. I’m cautiously bullish on them, but it will take time.

@0x5ar equity perps aren’t interesting tbqh sure stonks have positive drift but just arent volatile enough for them to be interesting imo you need 50 vol + assets on perps to attract gamblers eg silver realised 100+ vol last month gold 50+

is HYPE the decentralised nasdaq or the decentralised etoro. Etoro’s business is now valued at $900m by somewhat smarter equity guys: - customer life time value disgustingly bad/negative for both - both derive most of their revenues from crypto leverage still / etoro doesn’t rly make money same way as ibkr - hype handicapped by the fact that there’s no reg guidance and it’s predom still crypto native guys gambling on there / no fiat on the other hand - hype is more “democratic” - perps are maybe more fair than CFDs against the actual broker - airdrop premium / fervent community - lack of investable tokens by crypto only mandated funds - growth from taking share from binance is still so much greenfield im not sure

@0xmjt Alt frontends/builder code might fix this. Onramping via apps like Dreamcash is supposedly easy. Still hard to see a world where they don’t get sued into oblivion. Equity perps are interesting, but they’ll face an uphill battle vs Robinhood's of the world.

@0x5ar bingo. fiat rails is gonna be fucking huge. you need to move away from rabby / metamask / api traders at some point

@rodeo_crypro The run for the exit will be fun. I'll enjoy the show

zro event Tuesday is fascinating. probably nyse or some institutional partnership which is fun. but since its initial run, oi is up 3x and pride is down 5%. can’t remember a situation like this. everyone in it is trapped.

@jameschristoph Good analysis. I'm fairly certain that sharks also played a role but this deep research is definitely a step in the right direction

POST-MORTEM: The "Andes-to-Alpha" Blowup Date: February 6, 2026 Subject: Liquidation Event – "Victoria Peak" Capital (HK) Desk: Exotic/Macro RV We are receiving confirmation of a catastrophic unwind involving a prominent Hong Kong-based volatility desk this morning. The dust is still settling, but the anatomy of the blowup appears to be a classic case of correlation breakdown meets illiquidity. Here is the breakdown of the $450M implosion that just hit the tape. 1. The "Genius" RV Setup The fund, which we’ll call "Victoria Peak" for anonymity, was running a highly levered Relative Value (RV) book designed to harvest yield from disconnected emerging market betas. • Short Leg: Colombian Biotech basket (illiquid, sensitive to localized regulatory/drug-approval news). • Long Leg: Bitcoin via IBIT (BlackRock ETF) Spread Options. • The Thesis: They were betting on a "Risk-On" global environment where crypto beta (IBIT) would outpace obscure LATAM healthcare (Colombian Bio), effectively hedging the crypto volatility with the biotech short. 2. The Exogenous Shock: The TIA/EIGEN Collapse The structural flaw wasn't in the main legs, but in the collateral management. The fund was using a basket of "Modular Blockchain" assets as cross-margin collateral. • Specifically, they were heavily exposed to the TIA/EIGEN ratio (Celestia vs. EigenLayer). • The Event: A governance fork rumor caused TIA to nosedive while EIGEN stayed bid. The ratio collapsed -34% in 4 hours. • This vaporized their collateral buffer. Because the Colombian Biotech market is so thin, they couldn't cover the short without pushing the price against themselves. 3. The Contagion: Puking the Macro Book With the crypto-collateral worthless and the Prime Broker (PB) issuing an immediate margin call, Victoria Peak had to liquidate their only liquid assets to stay alive. • The Victim: Their macro hedge book—Long KRW / Short Copper. • Usually a play on Asian industrial manufacturing slowing down, this was their safe haven. • They were forced to panic-sell KRW and buy back Copper futures at market execution. This caused a temporary 40-pip dislocation in USDKRW spot markets and a random spike in COMEX Copper. 4. The Kill Shot: Enter Cyant Arb The market smelled blood, but one desk acted fastest. Cyant Arb, a notoriously aggressive proprietary trading firm known for predatory liquidity provision, identified the distress flows immediately. • Cyant’s algos detected the correlation break between the TIA liquidation and the forced KRW selling. • They widened spreads on the IBIT options and stepped away from the bid on the Biotech stocks, trapping Victoria Peak in a liquidity vacuum. • The Liquidation: Cyant eventually stepped in to act as the counterparty of last resort, buying the fund's KRW/Copper bags at a massive discount while simultaneously squeezing them out of the IBIT options. Result: Victoria Peak is effectively flat (and arguably insolvent). Cyant Arb booked an estimated +18% PnL on the session.