0xCaprae

10 days left.

The $GOATED claim is officially live on genesis.goated.com 🔥 We’re also excited to share that $GOATED is now live to trade on the GOATED-USDC liquidity pool on @raydiumprotocol Ca: GoATEDLwYeDQXyzcFxAgeiQd5Amu4mewU4KmbjvUWGvH It’s time to bring $GOATED to the Solana ecosystem, this is just the beginning.

Some thoughts on Goated and why we are launching a token today from our founder..

The $GOATED presale goes live today at 16:00 UTC! 🟩 Only SOL accepted 🟩 3 Minute Allowlist Phase 🟩 5% Bonus in the first 10 minutes genesis.goated.com

Thanks for having me @sunnymaanz and @marccolcer

$1.3m circ market cap is awful cheap, right?

@AriDavidPaul Are you not concerned about dollar losing value against other currencies from all this: Recession -> money printer -> dollar loses value End of US hegemony- dollar loses value. Do you own fiat in other currencies?

This played out very quickly. My base case is we get a “do-over” at larger scale. Trump capitulated faster and more aggressively than I expected, but hard to believe he’s done with the general policy thrust; average American hadn’t even started to feel layoffs or tarrifs, this capitulation was just from the negative effects of speculators and planners reacting to Trump policies. My guess is equity bounce is a bull trap and we go substantially lower, but not much view on timeframe. Maybe we bounce for a few months first? Or maybe it’s just a few days? (I’m referring to equities only.) Bitcoin continues to trade as a blend of gold and equities, and gold is on a different cycle pattern to equities, very strong right now’s but might be nearing a top around ~$3,500. For clarity - I think we get another go at this same “trade setup”, in even more extreme form. Very volatile and “risky” and uncertain times. Personally I’m not short any equity here, just cash heavy and patient. If equity bounce continues and I can find some “smart” shorts I’ll consider shorting. I think >20% we get a 60%+ market decline, so there’s definitely some far left tail derivative plays with good odds. Lastly, I like quite a few of the general economic and administrative reforms Trump is pursuing. Some version of his tariff plan would actually be a long term win for the country and likely world (largely by bringing down tarrifs in aggregate.) But even with a coherent version of the plan with competent execution, it would still bring major short term pain and require a leader with a backbone to pull off. If I’m wrong, it’s likely because Trump capitulates more completely than it seems and truly abandons most of his current ideology and policies and ramps up the money printers. Hard to see him doing that just from people being “yippy” as he calls it.

@solo_levelingx @EvgenyGaevoy It’s a bet on “other” people needing a self custodial SOV option

@EvgenyGaevoy So what’s the point of crypto’s existence then?

Seriously think that a significant part of BTC ETFs aum is people moving over from cexes and (centralized) custody Most of my btc is in IBIT now and if eth ETFs get staking approved, will move my eth holdings

@AriDavidPaul @DPGSpurs @egferro @cburniske Also, curious to know why you don't see ETH as a SOV competitor to BTC. Once BTC security issues becomes more obvious, won't tradfi flock to ETH as a SOV asset?

Continue to believe there are high odds we break the simplistic four-year cycle that $BTC has honored the last ~12 years. If that happens, most people will realize they over-traded what's to come, with too short-term a view. But to buy that thesis, you have to believe blockchains are foundational to our digital future, not some "get rich quick" scheme. Anyone approaching cryptoassets like lottery tickets, has the same odds of getting rich as someone buying an actual lottery ticket. With a supportive US administration, crypto could be entering a goldilocks period over the next many years, where returns aren't as parabolic, but instead we see steadier growth, not to mention majors stop suffering 85-95% drawdowns. In Carlota Perez's framework (see image), we would be entering the "Deployment" period, after what was a very nasty 2022/23 on all fronts. On drawdowns: I'm not saying they'll stop, I'm saying it's possible they get less extreme for the majors, which could whiplash people that overtrade with too much aggression. That said, I don't believe in "up only" unless you take an infinite view on Capitalism. But the 85-95% drawdowns come when there's too much unrealized profit in the market structure, combined with fear that the asset may never rise again. It's dawning on the world that BTC and quality cryptoassets are here to stay, and so the "this is dead" pricing is likely behind us for the majors (not for memecoins). I also think BTC and $ETH both having ETFs, and perhaps SOL+ soon, will provide more consistent buying pressure for these assets. If you ever want to see the % drawdown BTC could be exposed to, look at the 200W SMA, which has been our most reliable technical support each bearish period. Right now at ~$40K that suggests a 60% drawdown is possible, which is a far cry from 80%+ (has to drop another 50% from 60% down, to hit 80% down). As BTC rises, so too will the 200W SMA. And despite always entertaining this number as a possibility, I continue to believe 2025 is a volatile but great year for us. If there were two major sicknesses I could cure CT of, it would be 1) pessimism and 2) short-termism. Both of these will strip you of the opportunity to hone your investment skills and build significant wealth. Sure, I raise cash in frothy periods from extended assets, but I always stay net long because I firmly believe blockchains are key to our future.

@AriDavidPaul @DPGSpurs @egferro @cburniske Isn't the answer Ethereum if you are worried about Bitcoin security issues? The world has demand for a digital SOV asset - what do you think is the solution for that? Currently a lot of the BTC bid comes from that e.g. Pavel Durov owning $100m in BTC.

It would be kinda poetic if the start and end of this cycle were SBF and SBR.

There is less people wagering now - so easier to earn points (we give out 2m points daily and have about ~2m-3m daily wager rn). Later if we are giving out 5m points daily but have 10m daily wager, then it is better to wager now. So *if* you expect us to do well and grow, now is a good time.

@0xCaprae @0xUnderwood @goatedcom If it’s going to accelerate why would I wager now?

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