@ThePumponomics @cryptoklotz So I think it’s two things: Many are bearish ETH in terms of holding long term, but as a trade? They seem very good with it.
English
Dude
8.8K posts
@ThePumponomics @cryptoklotz Sentiment on ETH the asset is in shitter, but the ETH/BTC trade? Thats crowded big time.
Just look at every major trading account on CT. All posting virtually the same bullish ETH/BTC trade.
English
rotated some stock index money and BTC into eth last night through this morning,
on the deranged thesis that i think eth hits $3500 before the s&p hits 15,000, and before BTC hits 130k
English
ETH/BTC being at lows is a symptom of performance of the asset. You can be at lows or highs and thats not telling you if something is crowded
On CT, virtually all traders are posting ETH/BTC. They are collectively very bullish ETH/BTC and posting same ideas. Thats why I said it’s crowded.
Crowded doesnt mean “bad” or “wrong” - but I can show you 50 large trading account on here talking about rotation to ETH here. And it makes sense; every major by definition is a crowded trade because every trader here is looking functionally at the same chart and seeing the same things right?
English
@DPGSpurs @ThePumponomics Ethbtc is at record lows, how is this crowded? It’s literally a pair chart showing it’s not crowded?
English
@bitcoinjack You’ve been spot on. I’m ok missing this / just can’t bring myself to rotate anything into it.
But I’m waiting for btc jack bull and it hitting. We need it.
English
@ThePumponomics @cryptoklotz It’s insane how crowded this trade is. Everyone writing off btc for eth again.
English
@cryptoklotz doing the same (stocks to crypto). and over the last few weeks have flipped bull on eth too.
think it will do better than ppl expect (feels like a low bar this cycle) and dot eths will flex on the TL again
English
$ETH just made new local highs while $SOL remains 10% below it's
one might be a bit crowded. idk tho
🐧@Pentosh1
$ETH is currently the most interesting major On the eth/btc pair is is right under resistance where the prev LL had formed. So in On the eth/sol pair its slowly been in an uptrend for the past year. In saying that, while it's at resistance on both. It looks decent. But it's also the reason I am not putting on a full position. This price can be expensive, while a reclaim can be cheap. and USD pair is not too far above it's multi-year support its also likely less crowded due to the hate. I don't care for it myself in saying that, and view owning it as a rental. I started a 1/4 position in it at 1,766 and will look to hopefully get to add more to that over time. But at least have some exposure now
English
@bitcoinjack It makes me uncomfortable how many people are betting on eth/btc.
I get it probably runs at some point but man. I’m really hoping for a strong btc here
English
Market seems to be somewhat happy to consolidate and until 64k is gained on the daily I don’t see a reason to be aggressive
Last week’s stream discussed this condition as in the chart below
But ETH is likely to dictate the direction of the overall market with the BTC pair trying to break out
English
This is like turning on the TV every day for five months and seeing the same episode of Seinfeld playing
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
TRUMP ON IRAN: THINK A DEAL IS POSSIBLE
English
@DPGSpurs @PeterSchiff @thefirstah On average people hold gold for a longer time horizon than bitcoin because it is a more proven asset. People are not day trading gold, they are buying it with plans to hold for 5 years minimum. Not the same for bitcoin.
English
Many people, myself included, regret not buying Bitcoin when they first learned about it. Soon, more people will regret not selling Bitcoin above $60K when they had the chance.
English
Do yall boil your mollejas first or just straight to the grill? #texassweetbread
English
@PeterSchiff @thefirstah Wrong. Tons of people who bought gold near top are down and its going to get a lot worse.
People held gold for years with no gains only to watch Bitcoin pummel gold when you said don’t buy.
Why would anyone listen to you now?
English
@thefirstah Most people who bought Bitcoin are down. Hardly anyone who has been buying gold is down.
English
@CredibleCrypto @btc_charlie Ideally btc leads and the 95% of other garbage goes away IMVHO
English
@TXMCtrades @venture_charts And this is why so many are still so bearish btc - think everyone expects stocks to top and have a violent downside and we all know that means bad news for btc and other risk assets.
Thats what everyone is planning for.
English
@venture_charts This cycle has shades of 2018 even though BTC fractally more resembles 2022. Back then the equity market didn't top until almost three quarters after BTC did.
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂@TXMCtrades
For 🔵Bitcoin, this bear market still closely resembles the 2022 cycle. For the 🔴S&P, this Bitcoin bear more closely resembles 2018 when equities ran up ~10% more than 200 days into the BTC drawdown.
English
In November 2021, bitcoin:native and the stock market topped together before declining into the 2022 bear market low.
A similar relationship was seen during the mini bear market that preceded bitcoin:native's parabolic advance in 2017.
This cycle has been very different.
Crypto entered a euphoric phase in late 2024 (around the time $MSTR peaked), while bitcoin:native topped in October 2025.
Meanwhile, the major equity indices continued to rally as much of the crypto market weakened. That divergence did not occur in prior cycles. Equities have been driven higher by the AI boom—one of the defining themes of this cycle. And now eye-watering valuations.
The question I posed in today's DC video—where I compared $MSTR, bitcoin:native, Treasury yields, and the $SPX—is simple:
What happens to crypto if the stock market enters a bear market?
Those calling for a major alt season or another explosive bitcoin:native rally are implicitly betting that crypto will outperform during a period of heightened equity risk—or they believe the equity market will continue to avoid a meaningful correction (that has never occured).
History offers a note of caution.
During previous equity bear markets, bitcoin:native experienced drawdowns of more than 80%.
When traditional anti-fiat assets such as gold and silver strengthened, bitcoin:native weakened.
And during the AI-driven equity rally of late 2025 and into 2026, much of the crypto market also underperformed (down 80%+ whilst ATH after ATH for the stock market).
These are the relationships worth studying—not the narratives, such as the 4-year cycle.
Markets don't care about opinions. They care about liquidity, risk, and probability.
We must ask...what is the sum of the evidence? And this is what makes the market as participants draw different conclusions from the same data.
Below would just be a normal bear market for equities with the average decline around 500 days and around 35%.
Will the 4-year cycle narrative save crypto or will it continue to trade with risk?
venture@venture_charts
Over the summer, I'll put together a video for the X community covering what's happening beneath the surface in crypto (and equities) We'll look at: Why some altcoins have already broken their monthly pivot lows early in phase. How that compares with bitcoin:native and $MSTR. What happens WHEN the stock market enters a bear market. Here's the question everyone should be asking: If many altcoins have struggled while the AI-led equity bull market and the S&P 500 have been making new highs, what happens if equities start to correct? If crypto were acting as a true anti-fiat or safe-haven asset, you'd expect relative strength. Instead, when anti-fiat instruments rallied (Silver 600% move and PM miners did more than that), many altcoins weakened (dropped by 80-90%) When risk assets rallied, many altcoins also weakened (dropped significantly). It has been down only whilst money flowed to other markets. So where does the bid come from when the major indexes enter their bear market (it is coming and I have an idea when it will hit). Will the 4-year cycle save crypto whereby it rallies during a significant bear market for risk? That is what the 4-year cycle ppl are betting on (even though the cycle configuration does not support that thesis) That's the discussion I'll open up for you
English
@TXMCtrades @benergywater This range has potential to really get to people *IF* (and its a huge if) we are just ranging here for a few months vs making meaningful new lows (which I think is by far most likely scenario - new lows)
English
@benergywater @DPGSpurs If you watched the video you'd know I didn't make any call, I explained scenarios both ways
English
@TXMCtrades @benergywater Bears are already back out in full force celebrating today. Round and round we go lol
English
@PeterSchiff People are tired of gold going down. What happens when they realize bitcoin is a better gold?
Peter Schiff@PeterSchiff
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is 4.6%. When it hits 5%, it will be the highest yield since July 2007. However, back then the U.S. national debt was barely $9 trillion. Now it’s nearing $40 trillion, more than 4X as high. Rising interest rates are a much bigger problem now.
English
All of the price forecasts for Bitcoin assume demand rises. But why should it? Most people who own Bitcoin are losing money. When investors in Bitcoin get tired of losing money demand for Bitcoin should decline. If Bitcoin is going down, why would people who don't own it buy any?
English
@TheHeatCentral If saying disrespectful things means you should be punched then you would be knocked unconscious every time you play.
English
Draymond Green wants to know if Udonis Haslem will keep the same energy for Bam punching Tyler Herro, that he did when Draymond punched Jordan Poole 👀
“I remember when I got into it with Poole… I remember one person when the Jordan Poole incident happened with me who was really, really outspoken about it and it really
Bothered me, was Udonis Haslem… I saw UD get into it with guys on teams that was younger than him before. Ala Jimmy Butler. Then he came out like ‘that’s ridiculous! You get into it with your young guy I would never. I can’t believe you did that.’ What is it ‘Heat Culture or Heat way?’ Maybe they don’t have fights.
So when I first saw this, I was like damn. This is two guys Udonis Haslem raised. If you raised this young guy in the light of what you was saying about me, and now he punches this other young guy, that y’all kind of co raised, are you going to have that same energy?
Reality is I don’t want him to have that same energy because I love Bam. That’s my brother, my dog… Tyler Herro, who’s from MIL, like Jordan Poole, has a lot of bravado as a young guy probably said some very disrespectful things like Jordan Poole.”
(Via @DraymondShow)
Heat Central@TheHeatCentral
Draymond Green speaks on his recruiting pitch to LeBron James on their trip together: “You know, I’d be crazy if for X amount of days, and at no point if I’m like ‘yo, we need to chop it up. Like what the hell is going on.’ Of course I did that. Of course the pitch was crazy. Since I think I’m pretty decent at it, doesn’t change anything. Doesn’t make anything happen. With the things I shared in it, I believe it’s definitely going to make the brain work a little bit. I don’t think there’s a decision that’s been made but say if there was, it’ll make you think twice about it. So there’s that.” (Via @DraymondShow)
English