Crypto o'Clock

The first edition of Weekly Market Update is finally here! cryptooclockpodcast.substack.com/p/1-weekly-mar…

Is Ethervista the Next Big Thing in DeFi? How It Stands Out from Pumpfun and Why It Could Revive Etherum’s On-Chain Activity? Let's see! In this thread, I’ll break down what it is, how it stands apart from @pumpdotfun , and why it is not really just another competitor. Let’s dive into @ethervista unique mechanics, its potential, and the risks tied to its rapid growth. #1 What is Ethervista? @ethervista is a new project built on Ethereum that aims to set a new standard for DEXs. While many people are comparing it to @pumpdotfun , they actually operate quite differently. @ethervista describes itself as "A new standard for Decentralized Exchanges". #2 How Ethervista Differs from Pumpfun? Many people call Ethervista as “Pumpfun on Ethereum” while the narrative seems cool it works quite differently. It might seem like just another platform for launching tokens, but it’s much more than that. Here’s how: Functionality: @pumpdotfun is all about simplicity, even those with no coding skill can launch a token there in seconds. In contrast, @ethervista is more technical. For example, creators have to deploy smart contracts by themselves. This makes @ethervista less accessible when it comes to launching tokens, but also makes launches more robust as they require more knowledge, so not everyone can easily become a scammer on Ethervista. Features: @ethervista offers a range of features that let teams add utility to their tokens. For example, they can set up auto-buy mechanisms, distribute staking rewards, and more from fees collected. Things that pumpfun isn’t capable of. Fees: Here’s where things get interesting — ethervista doesn’t charge the usual token swap fees in % of swapped tokens like standard AMMs . Instead, fees are fixed $ rate and are collected in ETH, which is cheaper and more efficient due to lower gas costs. This setup encourages creators and liquidity providers to stick around for the long haul. The All-in-One dApp: While pumpfun is just for launching a token @ethervista is aiming for more. What’s more they don’t just only want to be a better DEX. They’re building what they call an “all-in-one dApp”. Their protocol will include lending, futures, and fee-less flash loans. If they pull this off, @ethervista could become a big player in the DeFi space. #3 Chain Migration and Ethereum's Comeback We’re witnessing a shift as traction moves from one blockchain to another. Solana’s momentum has slowed, due to vampire attack from @justinsuntron with his @sunpumpmeme direct @pumpdotfun competitior. Now it is Ethereum’s time to shine. We already see some inflow of Solana manlets to @ethervista . With EIP-4844 lowering fees on the Ethereum mainnet and L2’s it’s becoming an attractive playground for smaller investors, what’s more huge amounts of capital sitting there (Ethereum mainnet itself still has 10x bigger TVL than Solana) can bring a lot of traction to new DeFi protocol quickly. #4 Ethervista Stats and Tokenomics Impressive Stats: Although it’s only been live for a few days, @ethervista already boasts over 6,000 users, with 398 pairs created—88% of which have been used at least once. Compare this to @pumpdotfun , where many tokens are launched but never touched. The platform’s volume is nearing $100 million, and it’s generating solid revenue, with $70k made just yesterday. It looks very promising. dune.com/0xtoolman/ethe… dune.com/obchakevich/et… Smart Tokenomics: Ethervista tokenomics are very simple. Native token, $VISTA, has a max supply of 1 million. Fees generated by the protocol are used for buybacks, with tokens then burned, making $VISTA deflationary. Thanks to the introduction of the token, fees made by Ethervista go back to the community rather than just extracting it from users to pockets of founders like in pumpfun. Currently, $VISTA has a market cap of over $25 million, showing huge growth potential if we compare it to @sunpumpmeme which thanks to introduction of new protocol SunPump pumped its native token from $75 million to over $440 million. However, keep in mind $Vista already pumped 10x in just two days—so proceed with caution. To ensure no rug pull from early token holders, they’ve introduced a 5-day lockup period on liquidity provided to their token, as most rugs occur within 2-4 days after launch in their research and today is first unlock of this liquidity. #5 Risks While @ethervista is exciting, it’s important to be aware of the risks: Hype vs. Substance: Many new crypto projects rise quickly but fall just as fast. The DeFi space hasn’t seen truly groundbreaking innovations in a while, and hype can sometimes overshadow substance. Remember ERC-404? Timeline was flooded with it just a few months ago, but its flagship project, $Pandora, is now down over 95% from its peak marking all time lows everyday. The same can happen to @ethervista , so stay cautious. Security Concerns: As a new protocol, @ethervista hasn’t been fully battle-tested. The more popular it gets, the more it could attract hackers and scammers. Always use a burner wallet and be careful with your interactions on the platform. #6 Conclusions @ethervista is more than just a @pumpdotfun clone—it’s a new player in the DeFi world with some compelling features and big ambitions. But as with any new project, it’s essential to balance excitement with caution. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether @ethervista is here to stay or will end like ERC-404. ~Thread created by @Goik412

Sunpump vs. Pumpfun - The Battle for the Memecoin Crown @Sunpumpmeme, recently launched by @justinsuntron, has quickly gained huge attention, enabling $TRX to almost break its ATH from the previous cycle. While major players like Dexscreener have tried and failed to dethrone @Pumpdotfun, the rising FUD surrounding Pump.fun’s value extraction practices and user exploitation is positioning Sunpump as a potential new leader in the memecoin arena. * * * * * * Problems with @Pumpdotfun: Scams and Rugs: With its rapid rise in popularity, it has become a magnet for scams. Initially, scams were simple—devs pumping and dumping their token. However, these schemes have evolved, becoming increasingly more sophisticated. For instance, tools now allow token creators to snipe launches across multiple unrelated wallets, making scams harder to spot. One of the more advanced tactics is the "fake" CTO. In this scenario, a team launches a token on Pump.fun, pushes it and after reaching a certain market cap, they dump their team bags. Huge FUD in Telegram channels leads to panic selling from holders, allowing the scammers to repurchase the tokens at a lower price. After buying tokens back they then falsely claim that the community has taken over the project, only to repeat the cycle of pumping and dumping. As these scams become more advanced, more users are falling victim, losing significant amounts of money. In the chart below, we can see that 60% of pump fun traders lost money, while a mere 3% earned over $1,000. Notably, 70 traders made over $1 million. This shows that the vast majority of the profits gained on pump fun are among a tiny amount of users. x.com/crypto__kermit… Value Extraction: As Pump.fun hasn’t launched its token they are facing heavy criticism for extracting value from its users without giving much back. The platform has proven to be an incredible money machine, generating over $90 million in fees. While this figure underscores the platform's massive success, the lack of revenue redistribution leaves users with anger. The community is getting more and more frustrated as the platform rakes in profits while offering little in return. High MEV & Slippage: Although transaction fees on Solana are generally low, the true cost of using Solana for trading is hidden in other ways. As memecoins dominate most of the traction on Solana, dApps like DEXs set high default slippage due to their volatile nature. This, in turn, creates opportunities for MEV bots to front-run transactions, draining huge amounts of money from users. Recently, @0xngmi estimated that trading bots, Pump.fun fees, and MEV extraction have collectively drained at least $518 million from users. This figure likely underestimates the total, as it does not account for the full profits made by sandwich bots. Just one of those bots earned $30 million in 1-2 months. x.com/0xngmi/status/… x.com/0xngmi/status/… Degeneracy: Pump.fun has reached new heights of degeneracy as developers push the boundaries further and further just to promote their projects. What started innocently has devolved into a spectacle of extreme behavior, with incidents ranging from a developer burning himself near to death, to a child sexually exploiting their "mom," with devs doing drugs with prostitutes just to gain attention. This degeneracy has brought a lot of negative attention to Pump.fun, messing up its reputation and making it look increasingly unappealing to outsiders. * * * * * * Why Can @Sunpumpmeme Succeed? Fewer Scams (for now): So far Sunpump isn’t flooded with as many scams. Tons of its launches have reached millions-dollar market caps, which is now a rare case on Pump.fun. This success has drawn attention, prompting users to migrate from Solana to Sunpump. However, it is important to note that as Sunpump continues to grow, it will most certainly attract scammers, leading to similar issues as those seen on Pump.fun if Sunpump doesn’t make features that will cut scammers. As we can see in stats below, a tiny amount of tokens on pump.fun leaves Raydium. Just 41 tokens from over 1,7 million launched maintained over $1 million market cap for multiple weeks x.com/bastillebtc/st… Revenue Sharing Model: Unlike Pump.fun, which has been criticized for its value extraction, Sunpump offers a revenue-sharing model. This model involves buying back $SUN from 100% of its revenue, effectively redistributing wealth to the community. This approach has resonated well with users, who appreciate the platform's commitment to giving back. In just ten days, Sunpump has generated over $1.15 million in revenue, with yesterday revenue surpassing $400k. The platform's revenue is rising logarithmically. If we compare the revenue charts between Sunpump and Pump.fun we can see migration between them. Since the launch of sunpump, revenue of pump.fun started to drop. You can track sunpump stats in real time on @hashed_official dashboard dune.com/hashed_officia… No MEV on Tron: One of Tron's key advantages is the lack of MEV on its networks as Tron is preventing MEV. This not only saves users huge amounts of money, but also provides a much better user experience as transaction fee is known. This makes Sunpump an attractive alternative to Pump.fun. Ecosystem Boost Incentive Program: Next big advantage of @sunpumpmeme is making a $10 million incentive program for token launches. While so far details of it are unknown this will certainly boost traction on their platform. x.com/sunpumpmeme/st… Potentially @justinsuntron will announce tonight what these funds will be used for as he tweeted “Tonight will be unprecedented, but the only difference is that we are ready. @sunpumpmeme” x.com/justinsuntron/… * * * * * * Conclusion For now, it appears that @Pumpdotfun has gained a significant rival, which is already draining attention away from their platform. While @Sunpumpmeme looks promising, it's important to remember that many previous projects from @justinsuntron failed to maintain momentum. Despite Sunpump's current strong performance, it will inevitably face the challenge of scammers attempting to exploit users. If they don't introduce effective measures to prevent these scams, Sunpump risks ending up like USDD or other projects from @justinsuntron’s stable that ultimately fell short. ~Tweet created by @Goik412

Delta-Neutral Airdrop Strategies and The Best Beta Plays on Polymarket * * * In this tweet I'll discuss: - The most effective delta-neutral strategies for airdrop farming on @Polymarket - Key factors to consider while airdrop farming - Promising beta plays to Polymarket's growth Let's go! * * * Why Polymarket? Polymarket is rapidly emerging as one of the most promising crypto apps in the market by attracting millions of dollars in betting volume and thousands of new users flocking in. With the Polymarket bringing tons of attention due to the US elections, the timing for a token launch seems best it will ever be. Despite its rapid growth, Polymarket still remains relatively unexplored in terms of airdrop farming. With just over 240k accounts and 30-40k monthly active traders, it's still small when compared to protocols like Layer Zero, zkSync, Berachain, which had 5-8+ millions of wallets. In fact, Polymarket has established itself as the dominant prediction market, surpassing even traditional Web2 companies. This remarkable growth has caught the attention of investors and users, presenting an opportunity for potential gains from airdrops and beta plays. Polymarket's have done two fundraising rounds and raised $70 million from the best investors. Among these backers is Peter Thiel, the former PayPal CEO and early investor in companies like Airbnb or Spotify, as well as top characters from crypto world like Vitalik Buterin. As is often the case in the crypto world, the introduction of a native token is the next step for investors and founders to realize their profits. So the question is rather when, not if. dune.com/rchen8/polymar… * * * Strategies for Airdrop Farming #1 Authentic Engagement The most straightforward and legitimate approach is to use Polymarket as intended. Bet on topics you're passionate about and knowledgeable in, whether it's the sports, presidential elections, pop culture, or crypto market. This strategy aligns with the platform's purpose and if you utilize it correctly you will not be counted as sybil, but it may not be the most cost-effective airdrop farming strategy. Also you might prefer not to just gamble on events you don't have any knowledge about. #2 Strategic Hedging For those primarily interested in airdrop exposure, consider hedging your bets. Focus on highly liquid markets to minimize slippage and maximize your betting volume. You can also hedge your position by betting on different candidates in elections which will also hedge your positions eg. on account “A” you bet Trump wins and on account “B” you bet Kamala. However, be cautious about using the same address for all transactions, as this could flag you as a sybil. This is why I recommend using what I call: The Triangular Approach. To avoid detection as a farmer or Sybil, employ a rotating strategy using multiple wallets. For example, with wallets A, B, and C: Bet 1: A bets "yes", B bets "no" Bet 2: A bets "no", C bets "yes" Bet 3: B and C place opposing bets, etc. This rotation helps you maintain hedged positions while farming the airdrop across multiple wallets and avoid being counted as Sybil. * * * Providing Liquidity Another crucial factor in maximizing your potential airdrop is providing liquidity to the platform. By placing orders within specific spreads and meeting minimum share requirements, you can earn daily USDC rewards which are deposited directly to your wallet. This feature not only helps Polymarket reduce slippage, but also offers you additional rewards and potential airdrop exposure. polymarket.com/rewards * * * Beta Plays #1 The UMA Connection @UMAprotocol, the oracle protocol utilized by Polymarket to determine bet outcomes, stands to benefit significantly from Polymarket's growth. The voting power in UMA's system is directly tied to the amount of $UMA staked, with outcomes determined by a majority vote. Theoretically, as Polymarket expands, the demand for $UMA should increase to combat potential manipulation. However, the current $UMA price has yet to strongly correlate with Polymarket's explosive growth, potentially showing an undervalued opportunity. $UMA tends to make huge rides so be careful. #2 The Broader Landscape of Prediction Markets Prediction markets/betting platforms are built across various blockchains. Polymarket's potential $ billions valuation on open market could trigger a repricing, as many existing projects are valued in the low millions $ market cap, and upcoming projects are raising funds at relatively modest valuations. If you would like to dive into prediction markets altcoins you can start with coingecko category “Prediction markets”, so far $AZURO seems like the most promising competitor. coingecko.com/en/categories/… However, building and maintaining a successful prediction market platform comes with significant challenges. User acquisition and retention are particularly difficult, which is why most users go towards the largest platform – in this case, Polymarket. It offers superior liquidity and trust, two critical factors in the prediction market space. Liquidity's importance is simple: it allows for larger bets and more stable pricing. Trust, however, is a more nuanced factor. These platforms require robust oracle systems to determine outcomes accurately, a task that's considerably more complex in a decentralized environment compared to centralized alternatives. * * * Post-Election Landscape While Polymarket's growth has been impressive, it's important to note that much of this momentum has been driven by the US presidential elections. This event has captured global attention and introduced significant volatility into the prediction markets. The platform has benefited from the intersection of crypto and politics, with some candidates even endorsing Bitcoin as a potential reserve currency, crypto markets begin to be even more attached to elections. However, this reliance on election-related activity poses a potential threat to Polymarket's future. The intense interest and liquidity currently flooding the platform could dissipate rapidly once the elections come to an end. This presents a significant challenge for Polymarket: how to maintain engagement and growth in a post-election landscape? The question still remains unanswered. So will it be just a betting platform for political insiders, or maybe they will find a true Product Market Fit (PMF) even after the elections are finished and the president is chosen? ~Tweet brought to you by @Goik412

Mastering the Art of Crypto Liquidation Flushes - Trader's Survival Guide * * * Why Binance and ByBit changes the way they report liquidations? How to limit losses in liquidations flashes? How to make the best of the situation and maybe even make some profit? Let's dive in! Every year, the crypto market has at least one big crash. We call this a liquidation flush. On Monday, the crypto world was astonished with talk of $1 billion in liquidations. However, this figure doesn't tell the whole story and misses a lot of data. In this thread I will explain why this crash wiped out much more dollars than $1 billion. While those moments are scary, it can also be a chance to make money if you know what you're doing. These crashes can wipe out a lot of traders quickly, especially those who levered up too much, but with those flushes huge opportunities emerge and smart traders who are ready can profit from these wild market moves. In this guide, we'll teach you how to handle these crazy market moments, what type of order to use. * * * Identifying Opportunities in the Aftermath After a major flush, certain coins tend to outperform the market. Looking at Coingecko data 24 hours after the flush, the top 3 performers from the top 100 were $BRETT, $TAO, and $ONDO. These coins had strong narratives and already proven to be worth investing as they were once leaders in gains, before crash. This makes them attractive for quick rebounds. Sector analysis is another valuable tool that helps to identify what kind of tokens are the strongest. AI/DEPIN (+30%), memecoins (+26%) and Solana ecosystem (+30%) all led the recovery making the biggest gains from bottom. They all have something in common, which is a really strong performance year-to-date, i.e. all of them outperformed the market and provided huge gains..Overall investors are more willing to bet sectors that has already proven to make provide to be valuable and made huge gains. x.com/ceterispar1bus… x.com/ceterispar1bus… However, individual tokens can also outperform their sectors and are not that hard to identify before pump. For example, $NEIRO on Ethereum showed remarkable strength during the dump, even making a higher low in dollar denomination – a very bullish signal amidst the chaos. This allowed it to be the best performer and make astonishing 170% gains from $100 M to $270 M McCap * * * Strategies for Surviving & Profiting Liquidations #1 Avoid Excessive Leverage: While it's tempting to use high leverage to maximize gains, especially after a quick flush, this strategy often backfires. Many traders brag about their returns from longing on 10x+ leverage, but they're playing a dangerous game. Remember, after the initial flush, Bitcoin dumped another 10%, which would have liquidated these high-leverage positions. x.com/ThinkingBitmex… #2 Traditional Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) While effective, may not always be the most efficient in harsh conditions. These typically involve either setting a range of orders or buying at fixed time intervals, such as hourly. However, both approaches have limitations. #3 Range Orders: This method can result in missed entry opportunities if the price doesn't reach your preset levels, but what’s more you can even become exit liquidity to further liquidations and be left out with much higher entry than market sits now. #4 Fixed Time Intervals: Buying every hour, for instance, can lead to significant variations in your average purchase price and bad execution, especially in volatile markets where major cryptocurrencies can experience price swings of up to 10% within a single hour. If you want to range orders as DCA set a Wide Range of Orders: Timing the bottom is nearly impossible, and using market orders in such volatile conditions can lead to poor execution. Instead, set a wide range of limit orders. This strategy allows you to catch big wicks and removes some of the emotional decision-making from your trades. However, this strategy is not perfect, as you can miss bottom entries, but when range is created it can benefit you more as you can bet heavier at the bottom of it. If you want to make time DCA utilize Time Weighted Average Price Orders: TWAP orders are your best friend during volatile periods. This order type aims to achieve an average entry or exit price over a specified time frame, smoothing out your execution in choppy markets. After Monday's flush, Ethereum ranged between $2,170-$2,390 for over 13 hours – a perfect scenario for TWAP orders. Available on exchanges like Binance and Bybit, TWAP orders allow you to specify the timeframe, position size, and frequency of trades. * * * Types of recovery While having a plan during significant market downturns is crucial, it's equally important to maintain focus during the recovery phase. There are typically two types of recoveries: V-shaped and gradual. A V-shaped recovery is characterized by a sharp, rapid rebound. In this scenario, it's good to take out some profits. This is because the initial surge might be driven more by short-covering and forced liquidations rather than genuine demand. Example of V-recovery with further downtrend was the May 2021 crash, $ETH dumped to $1700 and then reclaimed $2900 level in a day making 70% gain from bottom, but then in next days it started to dump and it lasted for next few months until $ETH reclaimed $1700 level again. On the other hand, a gradual recovery tends to be more stable. Although it can also be influenced by short liquidations, the slower pace often reflects a more sustainable trend. In this case, there's less urgency to lock in profits quickly, allowing for a more measured approach to portfolio management. Example of gradual recovery is December 2018 $BTC bottom. In just 1 months $BTC dumped over 50% and marked bottom $3200 then it needed over 140 days to recover its price. * * * Understanding the True Scale of Liquidations The reality is that liquidations were likely much larger than what we have seen, potentially ranging between $7-9 billion, according to estimates by @CL207 x.com/CL207/status/1… What caused this difference? It turns out that major exchanges like Binance and Bybit have changed how they report liquidation data. On April 27, 2021, Binance implemented a significant change in their reporting method. Instead of pushing orders in real-time, they now report data at a maximum of 1 order per second. This means that during intense liquidation flushes, which can wipe out thousands of traders and 100s millions of dollars in mere seconds, a huge portion of the data goes unreported. Moreover, on-chain liquidations add another layer to the total figure, often overlooked in reports on many sites that aggregate liquidations. Over $300 million on protocols like: Aave, maker etc has been wiped out. As on-chain lending is open to the public you can utilize tools like parsec with dashboard “Lending” in order to watch out for important levels where big liquidations are sitting, how much was liquidated and many more. parsec.fi/dashboard #change-log" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">binance-docs.github.io/apidocs/future… * * * Conclusion Navigating liquidation flushes requires a combination of technical knowledge, strategic planning, and emotional control. By understanding the true scale of liquidations, using appropriate order types, and identifying potential recovery plays, traders can not only survive these intense market moments but also profit from them. ~Tweet brought to you by @Goik412

#15 Deep Dive - The Art of Adaptation * * * Flexibility is key, and those who stick to old positions tend to die out forgotten Let's explore the new ide of a strategy that can help you keep the gains and get rid of your mental biases cryptooclockpodcast.substack.com/p/15-deep-dive…

TradFi Enters Decentralized AI & Signs of Bottom * * * * * * The market of AI in crypto has faced many challenges, from hacks to downtrends, all while NVIDIA was marking higher highs and making one ATH after another. So far, $TAO has been the ideal indicator of how strong the AI narrative in crypto is. Does it mean we are seeing the local bottom on the AI market and we shall soon see green candles? * * * * * * Black Swan Hits Bittensor We've already heard a lot of FUD going around $TAO, but the recent huge hack on 3th July looks like the ideal sign for a local bottom. TL;DR 32k $TAO was stolen from validators and as a result Bittensor chain was halted to prevent future drains. After this event, $TAO dumped to $200, which so far has marked the bottom. While these kinds of events aren't bullish, they're pretty common in marking local bottoms. One of the more similar events was the Ethereum DAO hack where 11.5 million ETH was stolen and it was a pivotal moment for Ethereum history as we are all well aware of. x.com/Hercules_Defi/… * * * * * * TAO Price Action $TAO marked its top and went down from $780 to $200, making a -75% drop. So far in its history, $TAO has had huge downtrends, already seeing two -50% corrections that were followed by a sharp rise in price ($95 to $45 followed by 10x growth, $395 to $193 followed by 4x growth). Now we have this 75% drawdown, which is the same percentage that happened in early days when $TAO went from $120 to $30 followed, making -75%. Will we see a change in the direction as history suggests? * * * * * * Profit Taking by early TAO investors As $TAO was one of the best investments in the crypto world, investors are sitting on huge and heavy bags of profits. One of the biggest investors was Polychain, which invested in the early days when TAO was sitting just under $10. They bought tokens via OTC from the foundation, made huge profits, and addditionally acquired a lot of $TAO from staking. Around 1.5 months ago, they started taking profits and depositing huge amounts of $TAO to Binance which may have suggested a change of heart, but is it really so strange to take profits?. When an asset price goes up so sharply in just a few months, it's very important for it to change hands, and in the long term, these events can be seen as very bullish catalysts. x.com/bittensor_aler… * * * * * * Bullish Catalysts Increasing Interest from TradFi So far, most investors in Crypto x AI are crypto natives. As centralized AI is becoming a big discussion in the outside world, many people are worried about potential repercussions from centralized services like OpenAI, Facebook, Google, etc. These companies control a huge market share of AI learning, from creating models to training them, and making AI decentralized can interfere with their agenda where they have the complete power over AI and can include their own biased views. Just look at how left leaning and woke Chat GPT can be. . This is a threat to free flow of information as AI is more and more powerful and considered as a reliable source of info. Because of this, decentralized machine learning is becoming an important topic and maybe even a savior-like solution. Crypto makes it possible to introduce machine learning in a decentralized way and enables you to speculate on the growth of such a network. What’s more, big characters from TradFi begin to be interested in the Crypto x AI revolution. One of them is @JosephJacks_ , who is the founder of @OSSCapital that specializes in investing in open source companies. But there is more, @Chamath, who is CEO of @SocialCapital also seems to have entered the stage. You can like him or not, but he cannot deny how influential and business-intelligent he is. On top of this, a lot of people listen to his words and thoughts on given matters so if we want to see growth in the Crypto x AI sector we need people like him to be interesting in what's being built. In a recent meeting of All In Podcast, where he talked about how big is the threat of centralization in AI, he said “There are some really interesting adventures in crowdsourcing [...] I will encourage you to look at the project called Bittensor.” x.com/LuckyXBT__/sta… If you would like to learn more about the importance of decentralized machine learning, I highly recommend watching the documentary about @opentensor called "Decentralized Minds, The Bittensor Revolution". Although it is over 1 hour long, it is very enjoyable to watch so the time will pass quickly to every TAOist here. x.com/evert_scott/st… * * * * * * Grayscale Decentralized AI Fund Recently Grayscale launched a new fund that is focused on investing in decentralized AI protocols. So far it hasn’t attracted a lot of value, but it provides easy access for traditional investors. In essence, it doesn't require setting up an account on a centralized exchange to buy tokens and doesn’t require them to research particular projects. Now they can just invest in something that resembles a basket of tokens. x.com/Grayscale/stat… * * * * * * Summary The crypto x AI sector has faced significant challenges in recent months. Now it seems we have already bottomed as we have seen similar price action in the past which back then was a sign of a local bottom. So will we see an increasing interest in decentralized AI solutions from TradFi? Probably, but it’s hard to say whether it will be the interest driven by building solutions, or the interest driven solely by the promise of financial gain.

$TAP - Best $ZRO Beta? Today, we'll discuss one of the most promising projects built on @LayerZero_Labs that aims to solve the fragmented liquidity problem in the lending market - @tapioca_dao Let's go! - - - - - 📌Why fragmented liquidity is problem? Currently, there are 64 active Layer 2 solutions with another 80 in development, according to l2beat.com and lots of new Layer 1 networks are coming to the market. That's a lot of places - but what about liqudity? This rapid expansion has resulted in fragmented networks, as users chase the latest and most trendy protocols, jumping from chain to chain. To address this fragmentation, inter-blockchain communication projects like @layerzero_labs, @Wormhole, and @SynapseProtocol are stepping in, making the experience of using multiple networks much better and more efficient. - - - - - 📌What is Tapioca? @Tapioca_dao is an omnichain lending stablecoin protocol that leverages @layerzero_labs features to address the fragmented liquidity issue in DeFi. In other words, Tapioca is a project that helps both you and entire protocols keep your stablecoins liquid on any chain you like. It utilizes several sub-protocols, each designed to enhance functionality and interoperability: ➡Big Bang: engine for the creation and management of $USDO ➡Singularity: omnichain lending platform enables users to borrow, leverage, and lend across multiple networks without the need to bridge funds multiple times, which highly benefits user experience. ➡twAML: economic incentive model that rewards real economic value rather than relying solely on TVL, which can often be a misleading metric and whose capital isn’t used effectively. In many cases, the protocol just incentivizes TVL based on the amount deposited, not accounting for whether this capital is being used. This means new tokens spent will not result in protocol growth. ➡Pearlnet: @layerzero_labs Decentralized Verifier Network (DVN) - messaging protocol, enabling the existence and stability of an omnichain USD stablecoin ➡Yieldbox: token vault designed for optimized yield rewards - - - - - 📌Why Be Bullish on $TAP ? $ZRO has been going up as the market saw some positive sentiment, rising by about 100% from the bottom. So far, it looks like $ZRO is trying to mirror $TIA, which ran from a $2 billion FDV to $20 billion. $ZRO launched at an FDV of $3 billion and currently sits at $5 billion and doesn’t stop there. They adopted a different approach than competition like $W, which launched at a $20 billion FDV and its token is down-only, making community engagement much worse. Starting from a lower FDV benefited new $ZRO holders, as the growth of the token is sustainable, and the community around them is much more engaged and growth-focused for @layerzero_labs x.com/SmokeyTheBera/… @tapioca_dao is positioned as one of the best @LayerZero_Labs beta plays. With official endorsement from the @LayerZero_Labs team, who are investors, and even an active involvement from @LayerZero_Labs CEO @PrimordialAA on @tapioca_dao Twitter spaces x.com/layerzero_labs… - - - - - 📌Strong Backing from CT Rather than raising from VCs, @Tapioca_dao secured pre-seed ($0.22 per $TAP, 24 linear months vesting, 3.5% supply) and seed ($0.44 per $TAP, 18 months linear vesting, 13.5% supply) funding from multiple native crypto KOLs. While investors are currently sitting on multiples on their investment, their vesting schedule is long, and with proper adoption, taking profits should be mitigated by demand. This approach of distributing the token supply among various crypto figures avoided concentration in the hands of a single entity, as VCs invest a couple of hundred thousand at once, so they can control a huge amount of supply, which isn’t the case for @tapioca_dao. What’s more, they strictly chose whom to give allocation to, avoiding grifters and bringing the best. Notable supporters include @dcfgod , @icebergy , @korpi87 , @ZoomerOracle , @crypto_condom , and many more. x.com/tapioca_dao/st… - - - - - 📌Innovative Airdrop Mechanics Unlike typical airdrops that often lead to token value depreciation because they are given mostly to farmers who instantly dump their tokens, @Tapioca_dao adopted a new airdrop strategy. They provided options to buy tokens at a discount rather than giving them away for free. When it comes to rewarding community members, only dedicated ones received the airdrop. They airdropped Pearl NFTs to 714 of the most active members, and then each NFT got 714 $oTAP, which are options to buy $TAP at a 50% discount. This approach not only mitigates the risk of immediate sell-offs but also changes the perception in the eyes of this kind of airdrop receiver, as their tokens don't seem free. Knowing the cost basis of your tokens makes you more patient in waiting for a good price to sell. Instead of viewing your tokens as "free money" where any sale feels like a gain, you recognize their true value and aim for a more strategic and profitable exit. - - - - - 📌Low Market Cap Currently, $TAP has a low market cap of around $30 million, which is a pretty low figure compared to other stablecoin protocols like Maker, which has a $2.6 billion market cap (90 times higher). FDV is still pretty high and is sitting around $350 million (100 million max supply), but 52.5% of the supply is distributed in DAO share options - supply that will be used for incentives. Because this supply is an option, every token emitted from these 52.5% will be sold at a discount, rather than just given for free. What’s more, the money raised from this will directly go to the treasury. - - - - - 📌Dedicated Team The most important factor in every investment is the team. @Tapioca_dao has a strong team, prioritizing extensive testnets and many audits before the mainnet launch. On the other hand, the team kept us waiting for a long time, postponing the launch and other things, so there is a risk here that this will happen in the future as well - and if it does, then we may see other protocols that build faster, and Tapioca loses its place in the race. - - - - - 📌Risks Included While $TAP is a promising $ZRO beta play with official endorsement and active involvement from the @layerzero_labs team, you have to be careful with inflation as it is the biggest threat. Securing funding from influential crypto figures, avoiding VC concentration, and implementing innovative airdrop mechanics prevent immediate sell-offs. With a low market cap of $30 million and a dedicated team focused on perfection, $TAP stands out as a strong opportunity for liquidity across various chains, but will it be a good investment? We'll see.... ~Tweet brought to you by @Goik412

#14 Deep Dive - Reflexivity & Trends * * * Reflexivity is what drives markets, and crypto is the prime example of this Let's explore how to spot and use reflexivity to our advantage and multiply our $BTC and $ETH bags in the process 👇 cryptooclockpodcast.substack.com/p/14-deep-dive…

Is the Bottom in? Everyone is talking about the unlock of 142,000 BTC from Mt.Gox But is there anything to be afraid of? Are we going for another nuke on $BTC ? * * * * * * A Little Bit of History Mt. Gox started in 2010 as a card trading exchange for the Magic: The Gathering game cards but soon shifted to trading Bitcoin when it became the next hot thing in the tech world. Within four years, Mt Gox became the biggest exchange at that time, responsible for 70% of the trading volume - that's an insane percentage from today’s perspective. The dark days came and in 2014, Mt. Gox was hacked, resulting in the theft of around 850,000 BTC. Back then, the price of BTC was not so high so 850,000 BTC was valued at around $400 million - today it would be worth close to (!) $50 billion. But is it all going to find its way to the market? Not everything is so black&white here. Let’s dive in and see what’s going on. * * * * * * Market Dynamics The market has already begun to price in this event of additional sell pressure. When the news broke that Mt. Gox would start repaying users, many holders sold their Bitcoin out of fear, intending to buy back after the supply hits the market - standard sell high buy low type of trade. There are also those waiting to buy BTC once the new supply hits the market and nukes the price. But surprise surprise, this didn’t work out as planned. The news scared off the market which began to price in the new supply - remember, the news is often being priced in before the event, especially if it is a known event and we know the supply. The market felt a big relief when it turned out the tokens will be unlocked in tranches, and payouts will be visible at different times depending on the exchange. This means the selling pressure will not happen all at once, but may take up to 3 months (!) Kraken: 90 days to process payouts Bitstamp: up to 60 days BitGo: payouts visible within 20 days SBI VC Trade and Bitbank: complete payouts within 14 days Another reason no to be so bearish as many predicted seeing this red liquidation candle when news broke out on 24th June * * * * * * Some Loose Thoughts Although Bitcoin's value has risen around 100x since the Mt. Gox hack, only around 20% of the stolen BTC were retrieved and will be given back to users. This means claimants will receive less than 20x of their last liquid value in BTC, but far more in dollar value. Even more, people were able to sell their claims to various institutions, so we do not know how much supply will be coming from individuals. The case took more than 10 years so it’s expected that a lot of people went for a cash-in option on their claims. Even now some people may call for being paid back in cash and not in-kind, i.e. in BTC. So how many will have their BTC back and send them? Hard to say. Some will definitely sell some of their BTC after such huge gains in USD terms, but the bull is coming and many may become too blind to see the Sell button on the exchange. Will the same situation play for third pirates that bought claims? Maybe… but we don’t know when they buy them and what price per BTC they offered so… we can’t say what their ROI is. They will sell at least some of it, but how much? We shall see… All in all, Mt.Gox event is closer to being a non-event than it is to being a huge nuke that’s coming. Of course if we see a stagnant market in July/August and shallow liquidity it will affect the price and we may see close to $50k levels tested yet again. But I doubt it will happen. The case of CEXes having different timeframes is a clear enough statement that no one wants to dump the market even more and scare participants as we move closer to elections and end of Q3. Make your own guess as to what’s going to happen. Bottom is a process, not an event. We may revisit the levels, but it will be a great opportunity once it comes. See ya next time. ~Thread by @Goik412

#13 Deep Dive - How to Build a Network * * * Your network is your net-worth. Period. But how to build a solid network in crypto? Let's make a small fortune by playing the game based on the new rules👇 cryptooclockpodcast.substack.com/p/13-deep-dive…

Will Solana's Spot ETF Dream Come True? VanEck and 21Shares filed for Solana Spot ETF, but does it mean Solana is now legit and will soon have its ETF? Will #Solana become the next #Ethereum for TradFi? * * * * * * Approval or Nah? 1. Lack of CME Futures One of the main reasons Solana Spot ETFs might not get approved is the absence of CME futures contracts for Solana. This was a crucial factor in the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Futures prices are highly correlated with spot prices, indicating that these assets are exposed to similar manipulation risks. Therefore, issuers argue that since the SEC has already approved futures ETFs, any risks involved in the spot market are equally present in the futures market.The SEC would need to either delist the futures, admitting a mistake, or approve the spot ETF, which isn't feasible in Solana’s case due to the lack of an established futures market. Without CME futures, traditional finance market participants cannot easily invest in $SOL, weakening the case for a Solana spot ETF. 2. Few Issuers Only @vaneck_us and @21Shares have filed for a Solana Spot ETF, and while they are significant players in the crypto market, they are relatively small compared to giants like BlackRock. The journey of Bitcoin spot ETFs illustrates the importance of having major financial institutions on board. The Winklevoss twins first filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF in 2013, but it took over a decade and BlackRock's involvement for approvals to start happening. Solana currently lacks such heavyweight support and we don't know if they will get it or not. * * * * * * Why even file for an ETF? 1. Marketing Campaign Solana is the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, leading the way in onboarding retail into the crypto space. This is evident from the popularity of Solana-based applications, such as the Phantom wallet, which has flipped major apps like Telegram in the Google Play rankings. x.com/DegenerateNews… Filing for a Solana spot ETF, even if it faces problems along the way, can serve as a powerful marketing strategy. It brings significant attention and awareness to the filing companies, positioning them as innovators and leaders in the growing community. * * * * * * What can boost chances? 1. Pro-Crypto Administration A shift in the U.S. administration to one that is more favorable to crypto could be a game-changer. A pro-crypto administration could lead to clearer regulatory frameworks and greater adoption of financial instruments or maybe even mixture of crypto and TradFi instruments. If a pro-crypto person such as Donald Trump were to be elected, it could significantly increase the likelihood of Solana and other spot ETFs being approved in the future. 2. CME Listing If the CME decides to list Solana futures, companies filing for a Solana spot ETF could follow a similar path to Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, using the futures market to argue for strong correlation with spot prices. However, this requires a lot of time to build a robust dataset showing high correlation, and currently, CME has no plans to offer Solana futures. While this remains a possibility, it is not likely in the near term. x.com/tier10k/status… 3. BlackRock Filing The involvement of a financial heavyweight champ like BlackRock could significantly boost the approval chances. BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin spot ETF was a turning point that led to a wave of approvals - as who will dare to say 'No' to uncle Larry? If BlackRock were to file for a Solana spot ETF, it could have a similar effect, lending credibility and momentum to the ecosystem and the whole approval process. However, Solana’s ecosystem, which is less developed than Ethereum's and has experienced numerous downtimes, makes it unlikely that BlackRock would file for a Solana spot ETF in the near future. And if you add all the toxic memecoins that had their trends there... it may not help advertise Solana as a reliable product and healthy community to be involved with. * * * * * * Conclusions While the filings for Solana Spot ETFs by VanEck and 21Shares have created some excitement and a bullish sentiment around $SOL, there are still problems to be solved. The lack of CME futures contracts and the relatively small number of issuers compared to the giants needed for such approvals are major obstacles that we may or may not see being solved in the future. However, a change in the US administration to a more crypto-friendly people, the listing of Solana futures on CME, or the involvement of a major financial player like BlackRock could potentially help raise the odds of both approval and filing from real giants. Until then, Solana community can only hope for ETFs to be approved and maybe finally bring some value to the ecosystem. * * * * * * Hope you've learnt a thing or two today frens, See you next time, ~ @Goik412

#12 Deep Dive - Strategy For Upcoming Months * * * Today we're focusing on identifying the fastest horses and answering 3 key questions to make the most out of coming months Let's make a small fortune by playing the game based on the new rules👇 cryptooclockpodcast.substack.com/p/12-deep-dive…

Can ETH ETF Mirror BTC ETF Rally? -> Sentiment Checker - ETH ETF vs BTC ETF -> Price Action After BTC ETF Approval -> Post ETH ETF Narrative * * * * * * Historical Context of ETF Rally The price action and sentiment around the Ethereum ETF are mirroring the patterns seen during the Bitcoin ETF approval process, but at a much faster pace. Initially, market expectations leaned heavily towards a denial of the spot ETF approval. However, just days before the anticipated decision, major analysts, including those at Bloomberg, shifted their probability of approval from 25% to 75%. This sudden change triggered a rapid market repricing, resulting in Ethereum's largest single-day candle and a $100 billion rise in market cap. Despite this initial pump, the market soon entered correction mode, retracing almost all the gains, closely mirroring BTC’s trajectory after BlackRock announced its Bitcoin spot ETF filing. Back then $BTC had a similar rally from $25k to $30k before retreating back to $25k. Then CoinTelegraph fake news of approval of Blackrock Bitcoin Spot ETF led to a significant pump in Bitcoin's price which we all remember very well. Although the news was false, it showed market participants that they are underallocated for Bitcoin spot ETF approval, the price momentum stayed and drove Bitcoin to $47k. Once the ETF was officially approved, there was a brief "sell the news" reaction which pushed Bitcoin to $39k, triggered by outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust which had a lot of toxic flows. In the Ethereum case Assets under management of Grayscale Ethereum Trust are smaller as seen by the % of total supply and these flows are also much less toxic, so we shouldn’t expect these outflows to have such a huge impact. After the “sell the news” event we have seen new inflows that soon pushed BTC to new all-time highs even before the next halving, and this was something that never happened before. Given this historical precedent, Ethereum spot ETF is highly likely to be very bullish. So far a similar pattern happens with $ETH, but will it stay the same for the second part? A small note - we have to remember that as Bitcoin climbed, Ethereum also increased in price, positioning $ETH at a higher price point relative to BTC’s $25k levels before the ETF rally, meaning that % gains will probably not be the same, but there is still a lot of room for growth. * * * * * * Market Sentiment Similarities - $ETH vs $BTC If we look at sentiment patterns prior to the BTC spot ETF approval, people argued that existing financial instruments like Bitcoin futures on CME or ETFs for Bitcoin futures already offered BTC exposure and willing buyers could have already got exposure to it very easily if they only wanted to do so. After BlackRock announced its spot filing, Bitcoin's price pumped but then erased most of the gains and moved sideways until CoinTelegraph's fake news highlighted that the ETF was not yet priced in. Same thing happened when analysts from bloomberg were saying that Ethereum ETFs will be denied - price was dumping, but when they changed their ratios price started to surge and the market showed that participants were now heavily underallocated for Ethereum ETF approval. Where does it lead us in conclusions? Sentiment around the Ethereum Spot ETF is mixed - that’s for sure, but many are leaning towards the bearish side of the spectrum, arguing that flows will be tiny and the market is overpricing this event. One of the biggest promoters of this idea is @Rewkang who is very bearish on ETH/BTC in the next few months, but is it his true opinion on the matter? x.com/Rewkang/status… @NorthRockLP, few days before Ethereum spot ETFs were approved, when most people believed that they will be denied, wrote that “Whatever retail has been led to believe is generally the opposite of what ends up occurring” x.com/NorthRockLP/st… While the sentiment and price actions surrounding Ethereum's ETF approval are closely mirroring those of Bitcoin's ETF process and it looks bullish we are still very dependent on flows for Ethereum spot ETFs and very tiny flows can dump price of $ETH as people will see that no one is underallocated so far. Will there be enough hype to pump the price and attract inflows? * * * * * * Post ETH ETF Narrative Real World Assets (RWA) narrative is gaining traction, presenting a bullish future for the ETH ETF. As the largest player in traditional markets - BlackRock, is making moves in the RWA space it signals a major shift and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s endorsement of financial asset tokenization narrative underscores the critical role of Ethereum in this entire game. As billions, and potentially even trillions, of value in assets become tokenized, $ETH and associated tokens are can see huge gains in attention, and we all know what attention means to markets. Everything so far shows us that Ethereum will be the hub for Blackrock as their first tokenized product BUIDL is based on Ethereum mainnet, but is it just the marketing or maybe they will use it and really BUIDL something there? If you would like to dive deeper in RWA narrative you can read our previous analysis here: x.com/0xCoC_Podcast/… * * * * * * Last Words So far the Ethereum ETF approval process is closely following the Bitcoin ETF process, with market reactions and sentiment showing similar patterns. History suggests a bullish post-approval, with significant potential for not only Ethereum but its broader ecosystem as well, but as always, we need to keep a close eye on this matter because everything can change in an instant. "History doesn’t often repeat itself, but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain Thanks for reading! ~ @0xCoC_Podcast & @Goik412

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How to Gain Edge Playing Base Eco * * * In the past finding a gem took hours of research, but today everything is different because of bots Which bots to use and how to make them your edge? Come and see!