Hong.eth

@whyyoutouzhele 我的儿子正在学习普通话

The AI supercycle will last 15 years. We're in year 3. Most investors are still buying Phase 1 names while the real money is already rotating into Phase 3. I mapped the entire cycle into 4 phases with the tickers that matter at each stage: The AI supercycle is the biggest investment theme of our generation. Bigger than mobile. Bigger than cloud. A 15 year structural shift that will reshape every sector of the global economy. Hyperscalers just committed $725 billion in capex for 2026, nearly doubling last year. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta each spending over $100 billion individually. This is not speculation. I've mapped the entire supercycle into four phases so you know exactly where we are and where the asymmetric opportunities sit. 🔴 Phase 1: Already Ran (2023 to 2025) The foundation layer is complete. $AMD ran 78% in 2025, $NVDA 39%, and $INTC just posted a blowout Q1 that sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index above 10,000 for the first time. Chips still power every phase but the generational entries are gone and risk/reward has compressed. - $NVDA, $AMD, $ARM, $INTC, $AVGO, $MU, $GLW - Semiconductors, Memory & Storage,Photonics/Optics - Foundation complete. Still growing but priced for it. 🟠 Phase 2: Peak Buildout (2025 to 2027) The phase most investors just woke up to. $CEG acquired Calpine to become the largest U.S. private power producer at 55 GW. $GEV up over 200% in a year. $VRT co engineering cooling for NVIDIA's Rubin architecture. $GLW up 74% YTD on optical fiber demand. Nuclear SMRs are the breakout with $OKLO, $SMR, and $BWXT positioning to power data centers directly. Still upside but the obvious names have moved. - $CEG, $GEV, $VRT, $VST, $TLN, $ANET, $GLW, $MOD, $EQIX $OKLO, $SMR, $BWXT, $NNE - Power/Grid, Cooling, Networking, Nuclear/SMR Peak buildout. - Nuclear SMRs are the sleeper. 🟡 Phase 3: The Positioning Window (2026 to 2028) Where AI escapes the data center and enters the physical world. Most will be late. Tesla converting Fremont to Optimus production, $25B capex, mass production targeted H2 2026. Rocket Lab posted record $602M revenue with $1.85B backlog. $LUNR up 47% YTD with $943M in contracts. $KTOS Valkyrie drone selected for the Marine Corps. The window to position is open right now. - $TSLA, $RKLB, $LUNR, $KTOS, $AVAV, $PATH, $ISRG $MP, $FCX, $ALB, $ASTS - Robotics/Autonomy, Space/Defense/Drones, Rare Earths - This is where the asymmetric risk/reward lives. 🟢 Phase 4: Final Frontier (2028+) The endgame. Microsoft capex $190B. Alphabet $190B. Amazon $200B. Meta $145B. Google Cloud backlog past $460B. They're building the rails for AI software dominance and AGI. Quantum still early but $IONQ and D Wave are laying groundwork. The platforms that control the software layer win the entire supercycle. - $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META, $ORCL, $IONQ - AI Software Dominance, AGI Infrastructure Decade long thesis. - Accumulate on weakness. 💊 Key Takeaway - Phase 2 is confirmed ($725B hyperscaler capex) - Phase 3 is where the smart money positions nowRobotics, space, defense, nuclear - SMR are the 2026 to 2028 trades - Most will rotate into these names 12 months too late 15 year supercycle. Not a trade. Phase 1 ran. Phase 2 is priced. Phase 3 is where you want to be.

@market_beggar 美資：高歌離席 😜

「老美撤資跡象浮現🚨」：亞資是否再次成為大冤種？ 承接上週針對「美資、亞資情緒」的分析帖（下方引文）， 今天要來和各位更新一項極其值得注意的風險訊號⚠️ 先說結論： 美資情緒曲線自二月以來，首次出現大幅度下降； 同時亞方資金反倒急遽上升，而上次出現此情況，是在去年 11 月暴跌前 ...👇： // 附圖的指標是「美方、亞方資金情緒曲線」，如果你是新朋友， 或者還不清楚此指標的原理，建議可以先參考以下鏈接， 我之前都有寫過詳細的概念教學🔗： 📖 美方資金情緒曲線介紹： x.com/market_beggar/… // 如附圖所示： ➡️ 自 BTC 二月暴跌至 60K 至今，美資曲線始終維持上升 ➡️ 而就在最近幾天，美資曲線出現首次大幅度下降 ➡️ 與此同時，亞洲資金曲線卻依然保持上升 ➡️ 從邏輯上來說，這高概率意味著美方資金態度的轉向 在上篇分析帖中（下方引文），我曾幫各位覆盤了最近老美資金的態度， 如果你還沒看過前篇帖子，強烈建議可以先去看一眼。 如今，從美方資金情緒曲線的角度來看，第一道階段性風險已然出現： 作為市場主宰方的美資，在價格尚未下跌之時，似乎正在悄然撤退‼️ 如果未來價格再創小級別高點，但美資曲線未能隨之創出新高， 則意味著第二道風險：「美方資金情緒的背離」也將浮現⚠️ 📖 美方資金情緒曲線的超強逃頂運用： x.com/market_beggar/… 在去年 7~10 月，我在獵頂計畫中公開建倉 BTC 空單後沒多久， BTC 便於去年 11 月初出現了和現在相似的狀況： 「價格橫盤（或微漲），美資曲線提前下降，亞資曲線反而上升」， 我在當時將此現象稱之為「笨蛋錢訊號」（詳見下方鏈接🔗）。 📖 美方資金大幅撤退，「笨蛋錢指標」出現訊號（2025/11/03） x.com/market_beggar/… 如今，相同的配方再次出現，不論你的立場是看多或看空， 也不論你是否相信，但我分享的內容就是客觀事實， 而在我的視角中，這就是我認為當前需要特別警剔、甚至防範的風險🚧 當然，背離也可能被打破，打破的方式也很簡單： 「BTC 再次沖高並創出小級別高點，同時美資曲線也 V 上去，隨之創新高」。 不過現在說這些都為時尚早，畢竟目前只看到了第一道風險， 實際情況為何，我們最終仍須交由市場來給出答卷。 依然是那句老話：動態調整、且戰且走。 以上就是今天的內容，新的一週，祝各位交易順利🫡 // 📚 相關閱讀資源 「決戰 BTC 牛熊分水嶺」：多空強力交火、波動加劇 x.com/market_beggar/… 「藍線再顯神威」：強力反彈 38%，硬搶 STH-RP？ x.com/market_beggar/… 黃金坑追蹤系列（十三）：「四大深熊抄底模型」最新數據 x.com/market_beggar/…

@0x542121 @Polymarket 天天印鈔...

Day 35 of LP farming on @Polymarket

google: “we can crack bitcoin in 9 minutes and 2029 is deadline to figure out a solution” you know we’re near bear market lows when quantum fud starts trending again. But their best chip has 105 qubits, the attack needs 500,000. that’s like a guy with a ladder saying he’s going to the moon. ETH’s been prepping since 2018, BTC has draft proposals (BIP-360) but no coordinated plan yet. So next 5 years realistically: > quantum hardware improves, stays nowhere near attack-capable > ETH finishes migration first, pressures btc to move > BTC community starts seriously pushing BIP-360 > Satoshi’s coins become the loudest talking point forcing urgency (bottleneck isn’t crypto, it’s consensus) What you can do: if you hold coins in old wallets or addresses you’ve already spent from, pay extra attention. those have exposed public keys. Beyond that: > don’t use taproot (bc1p) for long-term cold storage > use native segwit (bc1q). your public key stays hidden until you spend > this doesn’t make risk zero, but it greatly reduces your exposure window THIS IS NOT a doomsday story. If you sell your bag over quantum fud in a bear market and miss the next ath you have no one to blame but yourself lol. same energy as the people who panic sold at 16k over ftx in 2022. Breathe! Accumulate!! we’ve seen this movie before.

My next $BTC prediction was posted 3 weeks ago. You can figure out where we are now.😉

@CryptoMaster_70 影片上CNN新聞 牛逼

台灣一群人等著百貨公司開門 只為衝去搶lady M的新口味蛋糕 多人摔倒並受傷 薪水要多低才會去幹這種事

@woodycryptow 之前跟學長加入過... 後來發現不對勁就不搞了

最近看了mt5平台被吃獲利出來維權的發文 真的不要懷疑他們的噁心 以前我上大學的時候 也在mt5平台賺了20萬左右 要提款的時候就是拼命卡 後面直接不理我了 所以後面我對商品非常不了解 也是因為對這種外匯平台感到害怕死了 寧願不碰 當時還有個叫外匯青年軍 後面也被抓了 但如果交易所自己的mt5都要噁心人的話 屬實有點離譜了 又不缺這個錢

@yoaka__ @BitgetTC 🔥🔥🔥

市場沒行情，錢都放在 @BitgetTC 理財 只好來渡假了🦩🏝️ #bikini #vacation

🔥 FACT: It took 6,267 days to mine 20M $BTC, the next 1M will take another 114 years.

BREAKING: Over 20 million of Bitcoin's 21 million supply cap has officially been mined. Less than 1 million left.

@star_okx Congratulations ！

A New Chapter: Building the Next Generation of Financial Infrastructure Our partnership with Intercontinental Exchange marks an important moment for OKX and for the broader evolution of digital asset markets. ICE has built and operated some of the most important financial infrastructure in the world, including the New York Stock Exchange and global derivatives and clearing platforms. Their decision to invest in OKX, and join our board, reflects a shared belief that digital asset technology will play an enduring role in the future of financial markets. For OKX, this partnership also represents a new chapter in how we approach the United States. In many ways, we view our presence in the U.S. as a blank sheet of paper — an opportunity to build thoughtfully, engage constructively with regulators and institutions, and contribute to the development of market infrastructure that meets the standards of the world’s most sophisticated capital markets. Financial markets are entering a period of structural transformation. Blockchain technology allows assets to move and settle globally with unprecedented efficiency. Artificial intelligence is reshaping how markets analyze information and manage risk. At the same time, expectations around safety, transparency, and investor protection remain as important as ever. The next generation of financial infrastructure must bring these elements together. One area where we see tremendous potential is the development of tokenized securities and digital representations of traditional assets. In the future, issuers may be able to bring securities directly to global investors through modern digital infrastructure, while still benefiting from the governance, market structure, and regulatory frameworks that have long defined traditional exchanges. Working alongside ICE and the broader New York Stock Exchange ecosystem gives us a unique opportunity to explore how these models can evolve responsibly. Our focus is not simply on new technology, but on building durable infrastructure for the global financial system. This includes improving market structure, strengthening risk management and clearing frameworks, expanding institutional access to digital assets, and creating platforms that protect consumers while enabling innovation. OKX today serves more than 120 million people globally and operates under licensing frameworks in major financial jurisdictions. Over the past decade, we have built high-performance trading systems, onchain technologies, payment systems and security frameworks capable of supporting large-scale global markets. As digital assets continue to mature, we believe collaboration between technology innovators and established financial institutions will be essential. Our partnership with ICE reflects this principle. Together we will explore how traditional exchange infrastructure and digital asset technology can complement each other to build stronger, more efficient markets. This investment is not an endpoint — it is the beginning of a deeper collaboration. Our goal is to help shape the next chapter of financial markets, where digital and traditional infrastructure work together to expand access, strengthen trust, and support innovation across the global economy. okx.com/en-us/learn/ok…

能夠預見 1 萬美元價值的 $ETH , 才能夠在 $ETH 跌破 2000 美元的這時候做出 Ethereum 2030 Roadmap 不知道當前像我一樣看到這種專案會興奮的人還有多少 😂 @yq_acc 在文中證明了 Ethereum 所有的 65 個升級在技術上「可以組合在一起」，不會互相打架。這件事在此之前沒人試過 而 ETH2030 這一個專案的核心在於：在有關 Ethereum 升級任何一個都還沒正式上線的情況下，把它們全部「模擬組裝」，看看理論上會不會衝突 得到的結果是：通過了 36,126 個測試，可以和主網同步——技術上是組合得起來 Roadmap 最大的風險不是技術能不能實現，而是各升級之間的耦合性 ETH2030 專案揭示的 2030 願景 1️⃣ 6 秒最終確認（3-Slot Finality 升級），交易確認從 15 分鐘縮短到 6 秒，體驗接近 Visa（2027-2028） 2️⃣ 無狀態驗證，用手機就能跑全節點，真正的去中心化（2027+） 3️⃣ 後量子密碼學，即使量子電腦出現，你的資產也是安全的（2028-2030） 4️⃣ 原生 Rollup 支援，L2 和 L1 的界線消失，用戶無需關心服務是在哪一層（未定） 5️⃣ zkVM 執行環境，任何計算都可以生成零知識證明（研究中） 而在今年，還有 - Glamsterdam （Gas 容量翻 3x） - Hegota FOCIL（EIP-7805）（抗審查保證：任何交易必須被包含、智能錢包標準化：錢包體驗接近 App） 等升級正等著我們 像是 @VitalikButerin 在 19 日的推文就有提到 "FOCIL 被納入 Hegota 升級。這意味著以太坊選擇優先實現一個改善抗審查能力的功能" "在今天的世界裡，以太坊社區能夠支持強化核心 cypherpunk 價值觀的協議升級，這是非常難得的。" "現在是證明 cypherpunks 能夠交付的時候了。" ＝＝＝＝＝ 當市場上看似忽略了技術進展如火如荼的發展時 Stripe 併購 Paypal 頻傳，估值上漲、 $CRCL 應聲反彈 這種能夠讓穩定幣、鏈上結算規模再次提升的消息當前肯定是被低估的 去摩擦的未來是消費中介從信用卡支付轉到穩定幣支付 巨頭入局如果是時間問題, 那麼等到流動性回來了, 能夠乘載這一些的生態究竟有哪些？ 現在隨著技術標準的漸漸落實, 答案也呼之欲出了 以太坊正在一步步把「可信中立的世界電腦」從願景變成現實 這也是我認為以太坊生態一直難以超越的一點 Vitalik 過去兩週也可以說是狂暴發文 我們可以看到當前生態的方向漸漸在往「抗量子」、「抗審查」、「代理經濟的結算」幾個大方向前進 === 至於鏈上代理經濟的部分 當前我們已經可以透過 agent 讀取生態相關的 skills, 安裝 agent 能夠使用的錢包 以太坊當前就是 Agent 鏈上經濟最佳發育點 ，這一點在去年 10 月 Coinbase 與Cloudflare 一起推出 x402 開始、 ERC 8004 標準上線後便不斷加速 就連生態的貢獻者強度都是最高的 believe in somETHing.

"Based on the tremendous interest shown, I will be directing the Secretary of War, and other relevant Departments and Agencies, to begin the process of identifying and releasing Government files related to alien and extraterrestrial life, unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), and unidentified flying objects (UFOs)..." - President Donald J. Trump

@market_beggar 老師新年快樂！

「大年初一，貝格和各位拜個早年🧨」 時光荏苒，不知不覺間又寫了一年的分析， 十分感謝至今一路以來支持貝格先生的各位。 寒暄的話就不多說了，希望大家在新的一年也能多多指教； 有任何想和我說的建議、批評、... 等，也都歡迎一起交流🤝 另外，很多新朋友可能不知道： 下方引文有我之前整理的「學習資源大全」，如果年假閒著沒事， 想找資源來看的話，不妨可以收藏起來參考參考📚 最後，創群至今也有一個多月的時間了（x.com/market_beggar/…）： 坦白說群組的氛圍比我起初預想的熱鬧很多， 連續一周每天都有 1000+ 條訊息💭 如果你也想找個地方，和大家一起交流、學習、聊天打屁， 貝格的免費公開交流群也隨時歡迎各位的加入，鏈接在我主頁的自介🔗 以上，新的一年，祝所有看到這篇帖子的人都能在市場大殺四方💰

@shawnchen_eth 龜爸新年快樂

大家 除夕快樂！ 祝大家 一馬當先，牛市在前 馬上翻倍，財富到位 馬力全開，收益暴開