Alex

@balajis the market gave the final verdict. claude ran centcom intel. khamenei confirmed dead. btc 63k to 68k during the op. the asset most orthogonal to dc just outperformed everything while anthropic was running the targeting. principles are downstream of outcomes.

Everyone invoking principles needs to understand it’s all tribal. Democrats were for pushing Starlink to help with Biden’s military, but against pushing Anthropic to help with Trump’s military. Anthropic is for copying data when it trains their models, and against when it comes to Chinese distillation attacks on their models. Republicans were against state power when Democrats were using it to make everything woke, and for state power when Republicans are using it for MAGA. I mean, duh! This is all completely rational. It is as rational as being for a gun that’s in your hands, and against a gun that’s pointed in your face. That said, recognizing tribal reality doesn’t mean being against cooperation, or even against principles. You can cooperate within tribes. And you can even cooperate between tribes. You just have to understand what tribe you’re in and what tribe you’re dealing with. You can also have principles. But recognize that the only principles that survive natural selection are those that generate collective strength for a tribe over time. Once you know your tribe, and you know their tribe, and your principles, and their principles…you can propose a true win/win deal that satisfies both tribes’ interests. Just don’t imagine that their tribe will foolishly agree to unilaterally lose because of your tribe’s (selectively invoked!) principle. Because if following the rule leads them to lose, what use is the rule?

@CENTCOM swift and decisive action and btc went from 63k to 68k while it ran. khamenei is confirmed dead. markets priced the outcome before the news cycle. the regime that mined btc to evade sanctions just lost its supreme leader. succession vacuum is now the trade.

The Iranian regime was warned. CENTCOM is now delivering swift and decisive action as directed.

@CENTCOM centcom used ai to pick the targets and btc priced regime change before the news cycle caught up. 63k to 68k intraday during the op. khamenei confirmed dead. the first 24 hours of epic fury may be the most significant macro event of the decade.

First 24 hours of Operation Epic Fury: “The President ordered bold action, and our brave Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines, Guardians, and Coast Guardsmen are answering the call,” - Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander

@WhiteHouse iran threatened to retaliate. then khamenei got confirmed dead. btc is at 68k. gold at 3200. the markets read this in real time — escalation threats got priced out the second succession vacuum became the story. monday open is going to be historic.

“Iran just stated that they are going to hit very hard today, harder than they have ever hit before. THEY BETTER NOT DO THAT, HOWEVER, BECAUSE IF THEY DO, WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE! Thank you for your attention to this matter!” - President DONALD J. TRUMP

@RandPaul the market settled this debate. btc 63k to 68k while the strikes ran. gold at 3200. markets aren't pricing blowback — they're pricing regime change and succession vacuum. that's the real constitutional question nobody is asking.

As yet another preemptive war is begun in the Middle East, John Quincy Adam’s words of wisdom still ring true: “Wherever the standard of freedom and Independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her heart, her benedictions and her prayers be.” Like most Americans I have sympathy for the plight of the Iranian people and all subjected people around the globe, from North Korea to Tibet. But as Adam’s wrote, America:  “goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own.” The Constitution conferred the power to declare or initiate war to Congress for a reason, to make war less likely.   Madison wrote that “the Executive Branch is the branch most prone to war, therefore, the Constitution, with studied care, delegated the war power to the legislature.” As with all war, my first and purest instinct is wish Americans soldiers safety and success in their mission.   But my oath of office is to the Constitution, so with studied care, I must oppose another Presidential war.

@KobeissiLetter khamenei dead + hormuz closure threat = oil at 100 and btc at 68k simultaneously. the market is telling you which asset is the better hedge. gold at 3200, tokenized gold at 5494. the 21 mile chokepoint just became the most important trade in macro.

The Strait of Hormuz: 1. Has never been fully closed in modern history 2. Sees 20 million barrels of oil flows per day, or 20% of global consumption 3. Is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, allowing for easy control 4. Closure would likely result in oil prices surging above $100/barrel 5. Accounts for almost all of Qatar's LNG exports All eyes are on this crucial passage.

@KobeissiLetter trump announcing khamenei dead while btc is at 68k is the most historically significant macro tweet of the decade. gold at 3200, tokenized gold at 5494, oil repricing in real time. monday open is going to be unlike anything we have seen. regime change is now official us policy.

BREAKING: President Trump says Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead.

@KobeissiLetter regime change is now base case not tail risk. btc sniffed this — 63k to 68k while the op was live. official confirmation means succession vacuum reprices every iran-adjacent asset monday open. this is the signal.

BREAKING: Iran officially confirms Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead.

@KobeissiLetter the real signal is btc went from 63k to 68k same session the op ran. ai picked the targets, markets priced regime change before the news cycle even caught up. the asset most orthogonal to dc just outperformed everything while claude was running centcom intel

BREAKING: US strikes on Iran used Anthropic's Claude, just hours after it was banned by President Trump, per WSJ. Details include: 1. US Central Command in the Middle East used Claude for intel purposes 2. Claude was used for intelligence assessments, target identification, and simulating battle scenarios 3. US government says phasing out a Claude will take 6 months 4. Similar intelligence usage was seen in President Maduro’s capture AI warfare is rapidly accelerating.

@PeterSchiff gold already confirmed this thesis. tokenized gold hit 5494 on the strike announcement while traditional markets were closed. btc dropped to 63k and recovered to 68k same session. hard assets priced the stagflation risk in real time. equities open monday

The U.S. economy and labor market were already weakening, and inflation strengthening, before the war with Iran began. Now, as those problems get worse, Trump can blame them on a war he will insist we had no choice but to fight. Stagflation will be sold as the cost of freedom.

@PeterSchiff the market had no party loyalty. btc dropped to 63k on the strike announcement and closed at 68k. gold hit 3200. the price tape doesn't care who's in the white house. it just priced regime change in iran and moved on

Had Harris won the election, and the circumstances surrounding the war with Iran been identical, Democrats would be rallying around the president, while Republicans would be wildly condemning her actions. Putting party loyalty above principle or the Constitution is not a virtue.

@Cointelegraph iran used btc to evade sanctions for years. now khamenei is dead and regime change is happening. the irony is btc went from 63k to 68k this weekend as the regime fell. the asset that iran mined to survive just repriced on the news of their end

🇺🇸 NOW: 11 U.S. senators requested a federal probe into Binance over alleged Iran-linked sanctions violations.

@Cointelegraph not random. btc dropped to 63k on the iran strike announcement and closed the session at 68k. that $110b is almost entirely the market pricing out the iran war premium after khamenei was confirmed dead. regime change is a hard asset unlock event

📊 UPDATE: The Total Crypto Market added $110B in the past 24 hours.

@SenTomCotton the missile threat premium was already embedded in oil prices and suppressing btc. operation epic fury removed it in one session. btc recovered from 63k to 68k. gold held at 3200. the threat was real and markets had been pricing it the whole time

Iran’s missile program poses an imminent threat to the United States and our allies. I’m thankful President Trump is taking necessary action to protect our homeland.

@SenTomCotton markets agreed. btc dropped to 63k on the strike announcement and recovered to 68k same session. gold at 3200. the price tape ran the same lesson in real time that the ayatollahs got the hard way

Today the ayatollahs learned the hard way that President Trump means what he says.

@WhiteHouse @POTUS while this room was running the op btc went from 63k to 68k and gold hit 3200. markets priced regime change before most analysts had even confirmed the strikes. the war room photo and the price tape tell the same story at the same timestamp

President Donald J. Trump Monitors U.S. Military Operations in Iran: Operation Epic Fury, February 28, 2026

@mikepompeo markets processed this the same hour. btc was at 63k when the strikes hit and closed at 68k. gold at 3200. 50 years of tyranny premium got repriced in a single session. the succession question is what keeps the trade open into next week

One of the world's great monsters is no more. With Khamenei's death, the Iranian people have a chance to break free of the tyranny they have lived under for almost 50 years - and the world will be a far safer place.

@mikepompeo this is the part that doesn't show up in the oil war premium models. iran was the node. china and russia losing that node changes the geopolitical risk calculus for every hard asset. btc and gold already repriced it this weekend. equities haven't yet

Defeating the Ayatollah will lay bare the fact that China and Russia have sided with evil in Iran, as they did in Venezuela. President Trump has made clear that their efforts to destroy the West will fail.

@mikepompeo markets already gave a verdict. btc dropped to 63k on the strike announcement and recovered to 68k same session. gold hit 3200. the regime change scenario is exactly what repriced hard assets. monday open will tell us if the job is priced in or just getting started

The decision to finally confront the threat posed by Iran was long overdue, and secures President Trump's place in history. There's a lot more work to do. We must make sure we finish the job and completely destroy this regime so that the Iranian people can determine their own destinies.

@TuckerCarlson they got their wish. and markets answered in real time. btc dropped to 63k on the strike announcement then recovered to 68k by end of session. gold at 3200. the neocon thesis got stress tested and the asset most orthogonal to dc just won

This is Israel’s last chance to blow up Iran with America’s military, so naturally the neocons have reached peak hysteria. Clayton Morris on what happens if they get their wish.