Quiet🅰️lpha retweetledi
I stand corrected. $ASTS was indeed mentioned in the SpaceX S-1. Named as a competitor in the largest IPO in stock market history.
But more importantly, @SpaceX just told the SEC that Starlink Mobile -- their D2D satellite-to-phone business -- is a $740 billion total addressable market.
Not my number. Not an analyst estimate. SpaceX's number. Filed with the SEC. Legally binding.
$740 billion. For the market that $ASTS is the only public pure-play in.
Let me put this in context.
SpaceX S-1 breaks down their Connectivity TAM as:
Starlink Broadband: $870B
Starlink Mobile (D2D): $740B
Total Connectivity: $1.6 trillion
Their Connectivity segment today:
$11.4B revenue at 63% EBITDA margins.
The most profitable satellite business ever built.
Their D2D today:
650 mobile satellites, 7.4 million monthly unique devices, ~30 countries.
T-Mobile's CFO calls it "low usage, geographically contained."
SpaceX next-gen broadband D2D (V2 Mobile): deploying on Starship in 2027. Needs Starship flying commercial payloads reliably, 3GPP Band n252 finalized, phone OEMs adding chipset support, and 1,200 new satellites built. 2027 is ambitious. 2028-2029 is realistic.
$ASTS launches broadband D2D next month.
Now the repricing math using SpaceX's own $740B TAM:
$ASTS at $89 today = ~$34B market cap.
That's pricing ASTS at 4.6% of the TAM that SpaceX itself just validated.
SpaceX paid $17B for 65 MHz of D2D spectrum alone. Just the entry ticket to this $740B market. No satellites for it. No phones support it. No service.
ASTS costs $34B and you get: satellites in orbit, 33 more in production, 98.9 Mbps proven, custom ASIC in production, $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog, 60 carrier partners, all three US carriers forming a JV around it, and the only low-band indoor D2D spectrum access on Earth.
Even at modest market capture:
1% of $740B = $7.4B revenue → at 15x = $111B → ~$290/share
2% of $740B = $14.8B revenue → at 12x = $178B → ~$466/share
3% of $740B = $22.2B revenue → at 10x = $222B → ~$581/share
SpaceX is targeting a $1.75T valuation on $18.7B total revenue across Space, Connectivity, and AI. That's a 94x revenue multiple. The market is willing to pay for TAM capture.
ASTS at $34B on a $740B TAM with confirmed technology, carrier partnerships, and a launch next month? That's not speculation. That's a mispricing.
63% EBITDA margins at scale. SpaceX just proved satellite connectivity prints money. The same business model applies to ASTS.
When the repricing happens:
This week -- analysts pull apart the S-1. ASTS named in the competitor section.
The $740B D2D TAM enters institutional models for the first time.
Next 2 weeks -- Goldman, Morgan Stanley publish SpaceX models. Every D2D valuation needs a public comparable. SpaceX just named one.
June 8-12 -- SpaceX roadshow. Every financial network in America talks space. The only public D2D pure-play rides the wave.
Mid-June -- BB8-10 launch on Falcon 9. $ASTS puts broadband hardware in orbit while SpaceX V2 Mobile is still on a roadmap.
Late June -- Russell rebalancing. SpaceX IPO capital rotates into the space sector.
SpaceX validated the TAM at $740B. Validated 63% margins. Named the competitor. And their broadband D2D is years away.
The repricing clock started today.
$ASTS 🛰️
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