ResponsibleFarmer retweetledi
ResponsibleFarmer
854 posts
ResponsibleFarmer
@0xBrado
exit liquidity | research
Katılım Ağustos 2021
414 Takip Edilen142 Takipçiler
@PlusEVAnalytics Gotta be one of the top 2 just from sample size I’d think?
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Fun Bayesian problem here.
Suppose these records are all legitimate and all at -110. You have to pick one based on these records alone and tail their next bet. Who do you pick and why?
Kirk Evans@KirkEvans0
The durations here are just so funny
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Third day and still hungover after 2 consecutive nights of drinking. I’ve lost it.
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Understandably people are saying he doesn’t understand the order book/PM’s. He is making a point showing why PM’s won’t get rec action when OSB’s are available. Name a rec that is:
1. Price sensitive
2. Willing to learn about order books
Yonan@yonann
Matt Kalish says Kalshi showed him a $930K payout on a $10K bet, then market makers turned the odds from 93 to 1 into 38 to 1 "i say i want to bet $10,000 on brooks koepka to win, the website says 93 to 1, i hit bet, what do you think happens?" "you think you're getting 93 to 1 right, and of course you're gonna win $930,000 right" "it turns out my bet's getting dumped to wall street market makers for a fraction of the amount. it was like 60% vig basically on this bet" "why is it if i bet $10 i'm getting 93 to 1 and if i bet $1,000 now it's suddenly 38 to 1? that's not sports betting, that's some other shit"
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ResponsibleFarmer retweetledi
This data is incorrect (and surprisingly far off). No idea how MS sourced this.
Brad Allen@BradAllenNFL
Around 2/3rds of Kalshi activity comes from non-OSB states per Morgan Stanley
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@Ianbtc777 @Novig "A high % of rec bettors care about best price though" I am quite confident this is not true
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Add in volume from Robinhood, 18-20s, and non-sports and it’s pretty clear at least the 2nd part here is true: very few recs are actually choosing PM over sportsbooks/DFS+, and cannibalization (in legal states) is, for now, minimal
Brad Allen@BradAllenNFL
Around 2/3rds of Kalshi activity comes from non-OSB states per Morgan Stanley
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@BarstoolNate Taking +money bet might be better sure, but for the people that bring up conversion is insane. Who can get down +$10k on a hedge line
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As you guys know I’m usually a nerd about this sort of thing but the Bonus Bet Police are way off almost all the time when it comes to $10k free bets. Optimal to Ugly Joe is not the same as optimal for Beersy. Most people get way more happiness out of betting the over and collecting $9k than betting what Ugly Joe would call “optimal” and losing. Real $9k is much prettier and buys way more beer than hypothetical “optimal” money. Add in how he got the free bet (not by losing but by winning a contest) and the fact he had another $10k on a long shot and it seems more than optimal. The Bonus Bet Police drive me INSANE.
Joe Dellera@JoeDellera
Somehow just telling on yourself more but okay People should try to bet optimally every time - just because you win a bet doesn’t make it a good bet and if you can’t understand that then that’s on you
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People hating that this isn’t the optimal way to use the bonus bet but who’s got at least 10k for a 80-85% conversion? Minimal
Dana Beers@danabeers
Bang! The parlay had so much life too. Thank you @DKSports and @StoolAfterDark #dkpartner
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making millions of dollars on cats and dogs coins is my birthright
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Life after changing your diet and getting in exercise instead of loading up on Chinese “for research” peptides
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