ResponsibleFarmer
854 posts

ResponsibleFarmer
@0xBrado
exit liquidity | research


The durations here are just so funny

Matt Kalish says Kalshi showed him a $930K payout on a $10K bet, then market makers turned the odds from 93 to 1 into 38 to 1 "i say i want to bet $10,000 on brooks koepka to win, the website says 93 to 1, i hit bet, what do you think happens?" "you think you're getting 93 to 1 right, and of course you're gonna win $930,000 right" "it turns out my bet's getting dumped to wall street market makers for a fraction of the amount. it was like 60% vig basically on this bet" "why is it if i bet $10 i'm getting 93 to 1 and if i bet $1,000 now it's suddenly 38 to 1? that's not sports betting, that's some other shit"

Around 2/3rds of Kalshi activity comes from non-OSB states per Morgan Stanley



Around 2/3rds of Kalshi activity comes from non-OSB states per Morgan Stanley


Somehow just telling on yourself more but okay People should try to bet optimally every time - just because you win a bet doesn’t make it a good bet and if you can’t understand that then that’s on you

Bang! The parlay had so much life too. Thank you @DKSports and @StoolAfterDark #dkpartner












