Isaac

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Isaac

Isaac

@roundrobin42

sports bettor writing about sports betting. research + policy fellow @aibm_org, views expressed are my own. sporadic tennis bets (not financial advice)

Katılım Ocak 2019
1.3K Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
I am ofc biased, but strongly believe this is the best and most thorough framework out there, useful for anyone interested in understanding how policy can feasibly mitigate the harms of sports betting without being overly draconian
Richard V. Reeves@RichardvReeves

Sports betting is now integrated into how young men experience sports. @aibm_org researchers, @oso, @jonathandcohen1 and @roundrobin42 published “Sensible Sports Betting: A Policy Framework”—nine approaches to reduce harm without prohibition. Give it a read: aibm.org/policy/how-spo…

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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
Separate from the legal or ethical stuff it’s pretty incredible that Poly is signing giant deals and raising at a $20b valuation while failing to operate a functional US product
Ben Horney@BenHorney

SCOOP: MLB is getting into the prediction-market business through a multi-year deal with Polymarket. Polymarket will be the exclusive prediction-market partner of MLB and will be the only platform allowed to use team logos and marks, sources tell @FOS. frontofficesports.com/mlb-makes-mult…

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Tennis Bettor nishi
Tennis Bettor nishi@nishikoripicks·
Do you know the ROI of backing every favorite and every underdog across ~40k ATP matches since 2010 at Pinnacle closing odds? - Favorites: -2.0% - Underdogs: -5.6% A useful benchmark for comparing tournaments, surfaces and event types. 📌
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@FerrisB_86 Can't stop thinking about this, genuinely insane to have a market listed with -9900 on both sides. This happened a few times on @Novig and they kept @BigBuckHunterrr in a cage at the office until he fixed it
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@OPReport Can't find the tweet I'm thinking of but feel like I remember seeing something about how the day after Kalshi announced the CNN partnership it was incorporated into their legal defense vs MA as evidence they were producing "socially valuable" information
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Chris Grove
Chris Grove@OPReport·
Obviously partnerships like this don’t carry direct legal weight per se’, but they do contribute to a sense of legitimacy and cultural permanence, which does end up having an impact on the legal process.
Mike Selig@ChairmanSelig

Today the @CFTC and @MLB made history by signing the first-ever MOU between a sports league and federal agency. We’ve committed to work together to protect the integrity and resilience of prediction markets relating to professional baseball. Through this partnership, the @CFTC is well-positioned to add additional tools to protect our markets from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses. Thanks to @MLB and Commissioner Manfred for working with us to protect the integrity of these growing markets. Read the full MOU⬇️ cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…

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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@joonlee Solid video and thanks for including me, some clarification on my comments here:
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Joon Lee
Joon Lee@joonlee·
Prediction Markets claim you’re betting against other users, but you’re really betting against Wall Street investors Prediction markets are sports gambling with a better PR strategy
Ben Horney@BenHorney

SCOOP: MLB is getting into the prediction-market business through a multi-year deal with Polymarket. Polymarket will be the exclusive prediction-market partner of MLB and will be the only platform allowed to use team logos and marks, sources tell @FOS. frontofficesports.com/mlb-makes-mult…

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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@AnthonyDabbundo One nice thing (if you're someone with sports betting domain knowledge) is that LLMs are currently terrible at betting bc there is soooo much garbage information out there, and so much of the good stuff is private/not accessible for them to train on
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
starting to doubt that claude knows ball
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zach
zach@zachleft·
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Circles Off 🔨
Circles Off 🔨@CirclesOffHQ·
Everyone on YouTube has a “get rich betting” strategy… But does this one actually hold up? 🤔 @robpizzola and @roundrobin42 react to "The New Way to Get Rich Sports Betting in 2026" in our latest video 📺
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Matt Zarb-Cousin
Matt Zarb-Cousin@mattzarb·
This is where it can lead, and why I am so motivated to do something about it
Matt Zarb-Cousin tweet media
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Joey Knish
Joey Knish@JoeyKnish22·
I’ve seen all the baseball I needed to see in 2026. This tournament has been incredible. Banger game after banger. Long live the WBC. How anybody goes from this to Reds/Diamondbacks game 137 I have no idea.
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Baseball Quotes
Baseball Quotes@BaseballQuotes1·
One of the most insane setups to watch the WBC I’ve seen
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Rob Pizzola
Rob Pizzola@robpizzola·
Instead of capturing the Venezuelan president, Trump should have gone after the Venezuelan baseball team. Huge oversight.
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@kwertytwo @bttsports If they’re market making they probably know enough to chase steam or at least hit an error line or 2 that’ll get em limited
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qt02
qt02@kwertytwo·
@roundrobin42 @bttsports why would someone who's market making but still losing be limited at a sportsbook? if anything it seems like a downsignal on their adversity
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
Maybe obvious but Kalshi’s fee structure and the nature of posting/taking liquidity means you can assume most takers are recs and most makers are sharp, so the relevant comparison to sports betting handle is taker volume which is just ~33% of total volume bc recs love longshots
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@bttsports and bookmakers aren't always sharp but they do almost always win, especially if ur talking pure roi pre any taxes or fees
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Isaac
Isaac@roundrobin42·
@bttsports Yea but I think the person who is market making but still losing is someone who would be limited at a sportsbook so their volume doesn't matter for this comparison. Feel like % of losing mm = % of (losing but limited) bettors
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Keşfet

@sharp_fake @FerrisB_86 @Novig @BigBuckHunterrr @Flupnolide @ShipTheJustice @nishikoripicks @OPReport