Plus EV Analytics

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports

When @EnglishMathPhD says something is good, it's good.

@BGComeaux Refunding $262 on a voided $300 bet and saying "sorry there's no customer service" isn't a good experience on any platform

@PlusEVAnalytics I believe that DK knows its audience, and it wants to market to the same audience across all platforms.

Reading this thread makes me wonder if "DK Predictions" was executed terribly on purpose as a false flag with the goal of getting all prediction markets banned.

@billsperos This x.com/phddfs/status/…

@PlusEVAnalytics Books routinely void parlay legs for scores of reasons Not sure what you're trying to say But DK Predictions and other OSB-based PMs were purposely and willfully designed not to look like traditional PMS

@billsperos People who would otherwise use a sportsbook would expect 100% of their bet refunded on a void.

@PlusEVAnalytics No It was built for people who would otherwise use a sportsbook Not PhDs DR'S strategy is to make money doing this WHILE adding customers in states where OSB is illegal Its preference remains sports betting & iGaming over prediction markets whenever possible

Seems like it wouldn't be hard to train an AI to recognize tells?

Consensus con (Spanish for 'with') @PlusEVAnalytics on the cero-cero empate mañana. Anytime two (dos) soccer (fútbol) minds of this caliber come together, you would be remiss not to join

@aRandoSportsFan Nice ladder!

@PlusEVAnalytics I hit over 8.5 +5000. I didn't see o9.5 at any of my books

Anyone know what o9.5 would have paid pre-match?

Surely the manager is ripe for a proper sacking, should this result slip away

Oh no not again

@jeauboux That'll do

@PlusEVAnalytics Got this when the score was 2-0

I only had England / England 1H / FT +500, I didn't go far enough.

@RetardedGambler Hold up is that a recursive frisbee

I’VE BEEN HARD AT WORK.

England/France today Btw we'll be breaking down both the logic and the math behind this rule in my @bet_bash seminar on uncertainty!

@capjack2000 @bet_bash @AmWager Possibly a podcast too, gonna be a busy but fun week

@PlusEVAnalytics @bet_bash @AmWager You're giving two seminars?!? How much longer until you just start @PlusEV_Bash? Seriously though, knowing in 2026 about how everyone is going to be betting on sports in 2029 is probably worth most attendees time.

If you look at the @bet_bash seminar schedule, in the first time slot there is a talk by @AmWager on parimutuel sports betting. I met AMW at last year's bet bash and since then we've worked together on a few things (another networking success story!) so when I saw this topic on the schedule my eyes lit up. I've successfully weaselled my way into their group, and I will be participating in this presentation alongside some senior people at AMWager. A lot of what we'll be talking about is in the conceptual phase (a lot of regulatory and tech work still to be done) but we'll be exploring the pros and, yes, the cons of the parimutuel system in sports betting. We're looking for feedback from the betting community at this stage so that when the product gets built it's the best it can possibly be. Sign up and we'll see you on Wed Aug 5 at 1pm!

Actuaries: spend years of their lives training on how to fix this accounting mismatch Sports books: meh whatever close enough

@PlusEVAnalytics need the @halfkelly episode

@RetardedGambler That's either AI or Japan not sure which

I LOVE EATING OUT.