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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports
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Plus EV Analytics
36K posts
Plus EV Analytics
@PlusEVAnalytics
Actuary. Gambler. Pragmatist. Canadian. Small data specialist. King of korrelated parlays. Husband. Father. Below-average golfer. Parrot parent.
Toronto, Ontario Katılım Ocak 2013
510 Takip Edilen30.1K Takipçiler
21 legs?? Have some self respect...
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker
Totally different why would anyone think they are at all alike
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@SeddyBets Thanks. Is there any public data on what the RTP is for these combos?
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@PlusEVAnalytics Last month it was like 60/40 in favor of SGPs based on my tracking. Could be off +/- 10% based on how I tracked it and my memory
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Anyone have any idea how the "exotics" category breaks into SGPs vs normal parlays?
Dustin Gouker@DustinGouker
Combos/parlays are close to becoming a third of Kalshi volume. Here is the mix of volume by market type over the trailing seven days ("exotics" = combos). Effectively 85-90% of volume at Kalshi is still sports... if you hear someone saying sports as a category is decreasing.
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Good timing for this. Public opinion of Tim Hortons is at an all time low.
CityNews Toronto@CityNewsTO
U.S. cafe chain Dunkin’ is headed back to Canada. Canadian restaurant operator Foodtastic says it has signed a master franchising agreement with Dunkin’ owner Inspire Brands that will bring the brand north of the border again. toronto.citynews.ca/2026/05/12/u-s…
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Congrats to this kid who will go through life missing a testicle.
NBACentral@TheDunkCentral
LaMelo Ball and Ana Montana have welcomed a new son into the world named LaOne ❤️ Congrats to them 🙏 (h/t @HornetsReddit )
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Here come the APs in everything from slot machines to rhinoceros racing to "well actually" this guy
Alex Monahan@Amonahan
Poker & sports betting are the ONLY forms of gambling where you can get an edge & win long-term 1) Sports betting = easy. You watch an odds screen & click buttons. Anybody can do it. 2) Poker = much harder. Lots of game theory, etc.
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Plus EV Analytics retweetledi
Good article - most people's idea of math breaks when the distribution is bounded (e.g. 0 <= P <= 1).
Plus EV Analytics@PlusEVAnalytics
Vig removal on large favorites is back in the discourse, so I'm reposting the article I wrote on it before. It's not as simple as everyone's making it out to be, and @FezzikSports is at least somewhat correct. plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2025/06/09/how…
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They can say whatever the hell they want; no one has a clue.
Guys think 13-1 is a good theo hold when the novig line is -2000/+2000
No one has a clue what is right and fair.
Captain Jack Andrews@capjack2000
@FezzikSports I mean, that’s perjury is they lie to a regulator - but let’s see how that works for them.
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@R00349 He didn't sell it to fans, he sold it to a company called Big League Advance
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@PlusEVAnalytics Yeah but what I mean when Tatis was 17 he sold to fans, for $2 million, a certain percentage of his future earnings for a certain number of years. It amounted to $37 million.
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While we're inventing made-up financial securities, how about one that pays $1 per unit for each million dollars in salary a given athlete earns in a given time period? When they get paid you get paid, how fun is that?
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@R00349 Yeah I don't mean for players to buy, I mean for fans to participate in their favourite players success
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@PlusEVAnalytics That already exists (kinda), some baseball prospects and golfers allow you to buy shares in their future and they'll give you a cut of if they make it
The biggest athlete to do it is Tatis who subsequently tried to get out of it when he got that 340 mil (court ruled against him)
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Plus EV Analytics retweetledi
Pretty ridiculous Caesars is now completely banning - not just limiting - users who have never broken TOS now and holding onto their funds at least temporarily. This is ridiculous @MassGamingComm
Slightly Plus EV@SlightlyPlusEV
Cowards @CaesarsSports
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P(it's her) is proportional to P(she phrases her texts like this) x P(she would do something this audacious)
figures ⚕@figxres
i’m dead. 💔
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@ReducedToaNum @FezzikSports Yes, that's what I did too but it was many years ago
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@PlusEVAnalytics @FezzikSports Couldn't you just take the closing moneylines from a bunch of sports then do a battle royal between methods for say -1000 and above to find the most accurate method via Brier score? That's what I did and landed on probit but I'm not a wizard.
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Vig removal on large favorites is back in the discourse, so I'm reposting the article I wrote on it before.
It's not as simple as everyone's making it out to be, and @FezzikSports is at least somewhat correct.
plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2025/06/09/how…
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The crux of the issue is this.
A 2% theo hold market will be less expensive for squares to bet into than a 5% theo hold market.
But, a 2% theo hold market is not necessarily easier for sharps to beat than a 5% theo hold market.
This holds true for heavily juiced favorites vs more even matchups, and it also holds true for prediction markets vs sports books.
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LOL
The 4 Hammer Guys Take
Fez is wrong. Why? Because Fez is wrong. And he bet Purdue 3.5 years ago -4500. So he is wrong.
Why? Because he is wrong.
Despite the fact. I am clearly right here, read on.
Plus EV Analytics@PlusEVAnalytics
Vig removal on large favorites is back in the discourse, so I'm reposting the article I wrote on it before. It's not as simple as everyone's making it out to be, and @FezzikSports is at least somewhat correct. plusevanalytics.wordpress.com/2025/06/09/how…
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Need a h2h matchup market between "hantavirus pandemic" and "aliens confirmed"
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They should have paid 3% for Book Protect Plus
FanDuel Customer Support@FanDuel_Support
Our team is aware and investigating the current technical difficulties prohibiting users from accessing our platform. We will follow up as soon as we have an update.
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Murry Gunty, the founder and CEO of Blackstreet Capital Holdings, used his private investment firm to buy the teams on his son’s path to NCAA Division I college hockey.
Then, he made the pathway more expensive for almost everyone else. usatoday.com/story/news/inv…
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