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@sqalef jeff is an incredibly trustworthy benevolent dictator
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L1's are confusing to value bcos they combine a little fundamental value with a lot of speculation.
@santiagoroel is absolutely correct on fundamentals. there is very little of value there.
the rest comes from memetic speculation.
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I fully understand where Kamino's frustration is coming from.
When your competitor becomes too good to compete with, the next move is always to start messing with users' minds.
If you’re confident in what you offer, then don’t block movement. Let capital flow wherever users think is better.
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Responding to my pals @tulipking and @CookerFlips here.
As always, starting with some things I agree with:
10/10 was objectively bad for all perp exchanges and there was a ton of value destruction involved with their core user cohort. It will take time to work through this recovery, but I just don't believe perp interest is in secular decline.
Yes, you can spin builder code front ends like Phantom into something that becomes detrimental in the long-run (akin to Jupiter becoming the more valuable piece of real estate vs. the underlying DEXs that feed into it).
However, builder codes are so early on in their lifecycle that each new major front-end expansion will only fuel Hyperliquid's story for the foreseeable future.
Currently, these are huge BD wins for HL and are incremental revenue drivers.
Now to make some other things clear:
The strength of Hyperliquid's competition has been grossly overstated for months now by CT.
It is pretty common knowledge at this point that Aster and EdgeX have next to no retail flow and are basically just funneling volumes across a few accounts. Lighter is less egregious but even then there's far more inventory neutral wallets driving paper volumes to farm points.
Would venture to say that Lighter's volumes are likely 70-80% mercenary, and even paid accounts are currently receiving more incentives per $ of fees paid. Will not even comment on the other "competitors" because at least Lighter deserves to be in the conversation.
10/10 and worsening market conditions have only made it harder to compete against the incumbent. No one wants to be on a less lindy perp DEX after that fiasco.
Looking at Hyperliquid's monthly volumes and OI, there isn't even a trend reversion. This protocol has remained in growth mode and is about the only phenomenon onchain that actually hasn't slowed down in recent quarters (don't even try to check Solana REV numbers - it's bad).
I'm not naive enough to think that there are going to be any safe havens in this market if $BTC keeps making lower lows. But if you want to express that view, why would you short 1 of 2 coins that actually has been exhibiting relative strength?
This seems low R:R for several other reasons:
- Wouldn't be surprised if $HYPE has another fastest horse moment on a bounce / recovery
- There's literally a DAT on the cusp of registering and plowing $300M into this chart
- There are still somehow people concerned that Jeff is going to FSH the HYPE chart with his team supply (I expect some word on this soon)
- Hyperliquid has somehow managed to jumpstart another secular growth vertical in equity perps - which is actually a less cyclical business. In the last month, tradexyz has already generated over $1B in equity perps volumes with two initial tickers under heavy OI caps. They've been shipping new tickers at an absurd pace and other deployers are about to enter the race.
This has nothing to do with OP but there's this strange obsession on CT where ppl want to pit protocols that have nothing to do with Hyperliquid with Hyperliquid - probably because $HYPE is the one token that has actually escaped the trenches this cycle and is building a durable case to stay in the top 10.
That's not a fluke. This is the best product to come out of this cycle and has one of the largest TAMs in crypto or elsewhere. An everything exchange that lets users trade spot, perps, crypto, stocks and commodities is quite literally a holy grail application and no one else is further along on this vision besides Robinhood.
Instead of comparing lesser protocols to Hyperliquid, more time should be spent scrutinizing the tokens still in the top 15, and question whether or not it makes sense that these names even deserve to be in the same category.
Hyperliquid today is about as cheap as it's ever been considering its current and forward-looking revenues.
Tulip King 🌷@tulipking
Looks like it's time to short Hyperliquid. The narrative around Hyperliquid has always been about their ability to generate fees -- this is a clear chink in the armor. Combine that with: * OI hasn't recovered since 10/10 * Plenty of new & good competitors (Aster, Lighter, EdgeX). * Front Ends that capture volume (like phantom) will likely be bad for hl in the long run as they integrate competing perps dexes & route orders as needed. This will vamp volume * +plus the market is bad in general
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According to calculations by MegaETH Labs member BREAD, if Uniswap adjusts its 0.3% trading fee so that 0.25% goes to LPs and 0.05% is used for UNI buybacks, the protocol—based on an annualized fee revenue of about $2.8 billion—could generate roughly $38 million in UNI buybacks every 30 days. This buyback level would be slightly higher than PUMP ($35 million) but lower than HYPE ($95 million).
x.com/bread_/status/…
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@0xcounter what do you think abt the bull thesis/Met Dhabi? highly probable?
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