dizno

your life actually starts at 27; its the age where reality starts to hit. You start noticing patterns you used to ignore, bad habits, weak decisions, wasted time. And you realize some of your pain isn’t bad luck, it’s repeated mistakes. That is a hard thing to accept, but it is also where growth begins. This is the age where excuses stop feeling useful. You start being more honest with yourself. You cut down the distractions, look at your circle differently, and take more responsibility for your life. It is not fun. It can feel lonely and slow. But every small step helps you build respect for yourself. You stop drifting and start living more on purpose. These years are not supposed to be easy. They are supposed to shape you. The person you become during this window can influence the rest of your life. Stay disciplined, stay patient, and keep choosing better even when nobody is watching. If you can get through this season, you will enter your thirties stronger, clearer, and far ahead of the men who never woke up.

@orrdavid @QuipusCapital @EYakoby Does it matter if Iran lost militarily if they can just launch drones to keep the strait closed?

Nobody is really making the same prediction I am, that I can see. I am just looking at the big picture facts: * Iran lost militarily. * Iran's ballistic missile program did far less damage than even mega bulls thought before this military operationg began. * India is saying plainly that they will send in 7 warships to end Iran's blockade. Which makes sense, since Iran losing a war doesn't magically let them turn international waters into a toll road - that is truly incoherent. * All of Iran's neighbors turned against Iran * Iran is also angering China by blockading them. Unclear if China will actually join the fight, but I don't see why they would want to help Iran.

BREAKING: An Iranian missile has struck Saudi Arabia. This comes just two days after Saudi Arabia warned Iran that any further attacks on its soil would elicit a military response.

Malcolm Gladwell explaining why some people succeed and some don't.

@okaymarket1 @AccountPoster @orrdavid yeah this was disappointing to read.. can’t wait to have my BBG for easy data access :)

@AccountPoster @orrdavid > trump is strategically winning > bloomberg terminal is fake news 😭

Besides short oil, what's another way to bet on the Iranian war ending with a great result within 3 weeks? Something obvious, not convoluted. Also, anything with options?

This is a window into the future of software companies: - massively multi-vertical products operating on shared infra and data model - agents running over the top to abstract away complexity for users that don't want it, or direct those who do to a deeper workflow - ultimately, the number of SaaS vendors a given enterprise works with falling from ~350 today to many fewer in the future

"You can teach a Korean 20x leverage, but you cannot teach them risk management." - Bill Hwang

The Dark Ages are visible in basically every metric, no matter how absurd. Here, for example, is the absence of items in the Louvre for the Dark Ages:

SBF’s League of Legends thing is actually pretty interesting. We know that Sam played a lot of the game. Here’s a screenshot from 2021 showing ~800 games in a single season (one year), which is a lot, anecdotally speaking. Each game lasts about 45 minutes, so that’s roughly 2 hours a day, every day, for a year. Sam also used to tweet frequently about the game (including about how much he played). Despite this, as you might be aware, he had an abysmally low ranking -- around mid-Bronze at the time. His username was known, so there’s not much uncertainty around this. Mid-Bronze corresponds to being lower than about 75% of all ranked players (probably charitable) -- which includes many casuals, as well as plenty of children who play the game. It used to take, if I recall correctly, roughly 10 games to get ranked in a season. Sam had nearly a thousand. So we know that Sam played a lot and seemed to care about getting better (direct quote: “I know I've said its name enough to imply I'm good at it, but I'm really not. It's actually embarrassing how little I've grown at it”.), but still fluctuated around the 25th percentile. This is fairly surprising to me, because League is decently g-loaded, and all of his other credentials imply he has meaningfully high general intelligence (Jane Street, MIT physics/math, 99.5th percentile as a reasonable base case for consensus?) If you’ve played the game, or MOBAs in general, you can probably tell that it’s decently g-loaded. The one peer-reviewed study that exists on this finds about a ~0.44 correlation between experienced League of Legends Elo and fluid intelligence (think matrix-based IQ tests). Here are some comparables so you can intuit whether that’s meaningful: > SAT ~0.82 > High school grades ~0.54 > Educational-context math achievement ~0.41 > Youth chess ~0.32 > Unranked chess ~0.32 > Ranked chess ~0.14 > Adult chess ~0.11 These numbers aren’t strictly comparable (different samples/corrections etc.), but they’re OK for intuition. So intelligence is roughly as predictive of League rank as of classroom math achievement, and quite a bit more than in any mainstream chess sample. Now, this is just one study with a sample of 56, and we’re doing serious hand-waving, so maybe that estimate is a bit off, but let’s assume for now that it’s broadly right (it doesn’t *sound* very wrong). What are the odds that someone with ~99.5th percentile fluid intelligence ends up at the 25th percentile in a game 0.44 correlated with fluid intelligence? With some naive assumptions -- roughly 2%. In that case, we should plausibly be able to find a non–cognitive-capacity source of the large residual, but I can’t really think of anything obvious. I think he played on the Japanese server, which would mean he’d have higher latency than normal, but I’ve played on comparable latencies and seen many do the same -- it usually doesn’t meaningfully move rank away from the normal counterfactual. Set aside some of the statistics for a second and move away from precision -- given all the uncertainty -- and think of a hypothetical with comparable but more intuitive tasks with similar loadings. Imagine a future MIT/JS guy who perpetually ranks at the 25th percentile in his average high school math class despite putting in effort, or one who spends hundreds of hours a year on chess and still ranks in the bottom 25 percent of a cohort (which should be less surprising given the meaningfully lower loadings). How surprised would you be? Actually, very? Maybe he had really bad motor skills? That seems unlikely for a trader, I’ve gotten tested on motor skills before in interviews. He seemed to consistently play only a few champions (characters), a lot of people underperform because they jump around too much, so that doesn’t explain it either. Some emotional/personality extremes, issues with frustration, etc.? Probably the most plausible ex post. But it would have to have been pretty bad -- the guy is bad at chess because he’s too emotional? That’s pretty bad. Something still feels off, and I assume we’re probably overweighing his g -- paired with tiger parent pedigree (2 Stanford Law profs, elite prep school) inflating the other meritocracy signals, this is probably a fair update.

how do u fix openclaw internal reasoning leaking

Oh and btw - everyone in this video in the Slack channel was an agent. The real user was the person watching this video (you) - the entire Slack exchange is a multi-agent environment, and “Daniel” is an agent managing the other agents. The death of the white collar as we know it.

Lifting weights makes your brain look younger. One year of either heavy- or moderate-intensity strength training reduced older adults' estimated brain age by 1.4-2.3 years on average and enhanced functional connectivity between brain networks. What I find remarkable is, while the training lasted only one year, the effects on the brain were still noticeable at the two-year follow up. So many benefits of going to the gym, and not just for your muscles.

New Essay Open-source software is heading for a golden era: written by machines, funded by people. Data is moving from the cloud back to the user's disk. And people will run AI models locally. Old visions of personal computing are alive again. essays.johnloeber.com/p/31-open-sour…

@hkusd @draecomino check the subreddit for cloudflare but broadly cloudflare is actually seen as lower cost, easier to use

@draecomino is there a moat for cloudfare that aws/azure/gcp cannot offer at a lower cost?

Long Cloudflare $NET on this hilarious Claude Code Security induced sell off. Full thesis coming this weekend.

@kamathhrishi this doesn’t work anymore

A quick preview of Stratalens AI for equity research. Query anything you want to know about US public companies from the last 3 years of earnings calls. Coming soon: 10-K reports and screening. Accurate data straight from earnings calls that can be cited and audited. Try it out at stratalens [dot] ai

@OrdinalMac @negligible_cap bingo

@negligible_cap Or is it they forsee layoffs and less demand for office space

AI is making everyone sell first and think later. Yesterday was financial advisors, 2 days ago was insurance brokers, everyday is SAAS. What was today? Commercial real estate services: $CBRE, $JLL, $CWK got smoked today, all down 15% or more at one point. Why? People are worried about a competing AI product / service that hasn’t even been created yet. What are we doing here people?

I KNEW I WASNT SCHIZO EVERY SINGLE ENGINEER AT DISCORD NEEDS TO BE PERMANENTLY BARRED FROM PROGRAMMING EVER AGAIN