kev

29 posts

kev

kev

@hkusd

Katılım Temmuz 2011
630 Takip Edilen60 Takipçiler
kev
kev@hkusd·
@0xpension @draecomino Not sure if I'm mistaken but i've always thought of CDNs as a commodity product and it seems majority of their profit goes to employee SBCs. I wouldn't short this company I would be weary about them losing its high Price to Earnings valuation with the repricing in SaaS
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dizno
dizno@0xpension·
@hkusd @draecomino check the subreddit for cloudflare but broadly cloudflare is actually seen as lower cost, easier to use
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James Wang
James Wang@draecomino·
Long Cloudflare $NET on this hilarious Claude Code Security induced sell off. Full thesis coming this weekend.
James Wang tweet media
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@StockzOnTap I think if you have used Jira and Confluence, you would know that there is no moat, similar to Docusign. The only way this stock makes sense is if they can create new products that are better than Claude and ChatGPT.
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StockzOnTap | Liberty & Markets
Atlassian $TEAM is down 75% from highs. But the business fundamentals have barely flinched. 85% of the Fortune 500 already uses Atlassian products. That’s one of the highest enterprise penetrations in all of software. This is ServiceNow $NOW type penetration. Jira and Confluence are deeply embedded in daily workflows. Switching costs are real, painful, and rarely worth it. Revenue is still growing 20% YoY. Gross margins sit around ~85%. That’s elite even by SaaS standards. Free cash flow is ~$1.5B annually. FCF margins are ~25%. This funds growth and buybacks. Management is actively repurchasing shares. They’re shrinking the float during a downturn. Net revenue retention is ~120%. This means existing customers are spending more every year. AI features increase product value. They enhance workflows teams already rely on. This isn’t a broken company. It’s a high quality SaaS platform repriced for long term value based investors. When great businesses get repriced, that's when we should start to pay attention. Check out the included weekly chart. See the double bottom level. That can ease the selling pressure.
StockzOnTap | Liberty & Markets tweet mediaStockzOnTap | Liberty & Markets tweet media
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@KCapital88 If the rides are the same price, I'm never taking Uber again
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K Capital
K Capital@KCapitalAbhi·
$UBER Morgan Stanley recently put out a research report on AV technology in the US. As I read it, I realized it’s one of the clearest mental models I’ve seen so far for thinking through how AVs actually impact ridehail. To be clear, I’m not suggesting MS has it perfectly right. They’re forecasting like the rest of us. But the framing is strong, and I think they’re directionally correct. A lot of the loud “AVs kill Uber” narratives on X are poorly conceived because they frame the problem incorrectly. They tend to come from fuzzy thinkers i.e., $TSLA cultists, purists, or overly dogmatic takes that skip first principles. A much better way to think about this is to ask a simple question: Will AV trips be incremental or cannibalistic to human-powered ridehail trips, and to what extent? In all realistic scenarios, $UBER remains the dominant platform for human-powered ridehail. That part of the business doesn’t disappear. MS estimates that even in the worst-case scenario where AV trips are meaningfully cannibalistic, AVs still don’t kill Uber’s ridehail platform. The downside is slower US mobility trip growth, not growth decay or collapse. That’s because AVs won’t replace all human-powered use cases. They’ll replace some, while simultaneously unlocking entirely new mobility use cases as cost per mile comes down. That distinction is where most of the debate goes wrong. Note that I haven’t even said anything yet about $UBER ‘s efforts to integrate AVs into its supply mix. If Uber executes there, and I believe it will, then even in a worst-case cannibalization scenario, a meaningful portion of any lost trip growth can be recaptured by facilitating AV trips in the US through partners. Uber doesn’t even have to corner the entire AV market in the US. It will almost certainly be a significant AV player, simply by remaining the primary demand router. A huge amount of commentary implicitly assumes: AV adoption = traditional ridehail demand destruction. That assumption is just wrong. The potential downside is mobility growth deceleration in the US, not collapse. Uber’s future isn’t binary. It’s about slope, not survival. Zooming out, this sits inside a much bigger global secular demand story that often gets ignored in AV debates. Mobility and delivery benefit from powerful, long-duration tailwinds: – Urbanization and population density – Rising time scarcity and convenience arbitrage – Increasing total cost and friction of car ownership – On-demand behavior becoming default, not optional – Consumers outsourcing logistics, not just transportation These forces are global. They are structural. And they are not reversing anytime soon. That matters because $UBER is not a single-product, single-geography business. Even in the worst-case scenario: – Uber still has a large, global mobility business outside the US that continues to compound. I have said this before. $UBER ‘s mobility lead abroad cannot be touched. They are tied up with all major AV tech developers (including all major Chinese players like Ponyai, Weride, Baidu’s ApolloGo) and will have a first movers and cost advantage in rolling out AVs in all international city markets. – $UBER still has a global delivery business riding the same secular convenience tailwinds – Those businesses can more than offset a slowing US ridehail growth rate over time (if the worst case scenario strikes which I highly doubt) This framing doesn’t say Uber is risk-free. It says the risk is being mischaracterized and overblown. Valuation implication: When the debate shifts from existential risk to growth slope, Uber stops being a zero-or-one story. The market already prices a slower terminal trajectory. Upside from heron out requires evidence that autonomy fragments and expands ridehail demand rather than reallocating it, while delivery and ex-US mobility continue to compound in parallel. That’s a very different underwriting problem than the one most AV bears think they’re solving.
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will kyi
will kyi@willkyi·
@anthonystaj i never understood things like this. if they truely had good data, they don't even need to address the short report. the data speaks for itself...
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Anthony
Anthony@anthonystaj·
Linda would like her rebuttal to be kept on the downlow and only let the investor community know that our report was "unfounded" without giving any actual reasons. I for one look forward to a potential positive outcome if she has the capability to release an ITT topline. I will run to cover at $2
Anthony tweet media
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@chadwahl This just sounds like a data-warehouse that auto joins the data.
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Chad Wahlquist
Chad Wahlquist@chadwahl·
“we've been working very closely with Palantir. And the value that Palantir brings in a situation like this is their AI approach is data source agnostic. So if I think about my team and I think about things like customer disputes, that data sits in multiple systems. Palantir's algorithms cross those systems and look for relationships that we can't see as humans in an AI way. And so what they're able to do for us is take a customer dispute that would have taken hours or days and turn it into minutes or hours. That drives efficiency. That's just one example. “ 🤝
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@Basteph_ This didn't work for canada goose
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Basteph
Basteph@Basteph_·
Forget fundamental analysis, value investing and else. Just look at what Chinese tourists are buying and buy shares.
Basteph tweet mediaBasteph tweet mediaBasteph tweet media
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NVIDIA GeForce
NVIDIA GeForce@NVIDIAGeForce·
3 days to CES. Win this GeForce GTX 1080 Ti - "The Ultimate GeForce" Signed by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang 🖋️ Want it? Comment #GeForceGreats for a chance to WIN!
NVIDIA GeForce tweet media
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@InvestRoiss @GachsSoldman1 Memory and storage demand has to go back up when we out of the recession since its used for data, compute, AI which powers the economy. Unless you think we will stop using data
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@Samirkaji In game theory, you always save yourself. The regulators should have locked the doors.
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samir kaji
samir kaji@Samirkaji·
What's likely happening: Everyone is looking to run out of a burning building that isn't really burning. But in the stampede of not wanting to be last out, everyone runs over the single lit candle burning, creating the blaze that potentially burns the building down.
samir kaji@Samirkaji

A lot of panic re: SVB (you should see my phone/emails!). A bank run driven by panic is the real risk here, not the action of selling LT securities at loss I have no inside information as I left SVB in 2012, but know enough about banking to piece together. Quick 🧵

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Ross Gerber
Ross Gerber@GerberKawasaki·
A gift of gifts... Tesla now trading at 25 times next years potential of $7 in earnings with a 50% plus growth rate of earnings. $TSLA
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@Jason Which group is happier?
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
Socialism
@jason tweet media
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@Jason This probably won't work for the 50% of employees that are below average in the workplace
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@jason
@jason@Jason·
Learning how to negotiate > joining a union It’s really simple: constant increase your value & negotiate based on your increased impact — & quit if you don’t get it don’t be just another brick in a Union’s wall while they siphon your wages for their higher paying jobs
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kev
kev@hkusd·
@acpandy they mentioned this bill was to fund Semiconductors in US, not to delist ADRs
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Saang Lee (이상선)
Saang Lee (이상선)@saanglee·
32oz sweet tea is the smallest size in this barbeque joint... Guess I really am in the South.
Saang Lee (이상선) tweet media
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Peter McCormack 🏴‍☠️🇬🇧🇮🇪
1/ Dear @elonmusk. The perfect troll is one where people don't know whether it is a troll or not. Your recent poorly informed criticism of #bicoin + support for Doge may be the perfect troll...or you might actually believe this (God I hope not).
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