TheDailyCompounder

@PantexCap @KarstResearch Hahahahahaha ok bro

@100xCompounding @KarstResearch Based on the writing, Karst doesn’t have an understanding, even closely, of how this company makes money. I assume they’re a generalist, because if they’re a finco specialist then they should quit and work at McDonald’s

Obviously just my opinion, but $ABX makes absolutely no sense to me. You have a business that generates no actual cash from its business currently and actually incinerates it. The EPS figure is just vapor from an actuarial table. 135% of their EPS is unrealized gain on policies. The business is entirely funded by debt issuance and credit facilities. OCF is negative @ $25.7mm. No real cash generation. Meanwhile they pay a dividend and repurchased $43.7-ish million of shares in 2025. Again, they don't actually generate cash. As of the last 10K they had $468mm of life settlement policies at fair value and $405.8mm of debt (net fin costs). So 86 cents of debt per dollar of policy assets. $114mm maturing in 2026, $150mm maturing in 2028. The 2026 maturity is their LMAIS II LP which can be extended for two additional one year periods (June 2027 + Dec 2028). This "debt" though is funny, it's funded by capital commitments as low as $500k @ 8%, $500k-$1mm @ 8.25%, and >$1mm @ 8.5% and are referred to as Limited Partners in the filings. Additionally, it's redeemable... $17mm was redeemed by LPs in 2025. I am unsure if there is a gate. They can elect to extend potentially out to 2028 (two, one year extensions). Thinking about TBV/Sh: Total non-current assets: $488mm Less all debt + retro + deferred tax: ($441.6mm) Net tangible value: $46.4mm Less pref: ($5.0mm) To common: $41.4mm Shares (net of treasury): 97,473,634 Per Share: $0.42 If you include their related party mgmt fee receivable of $25.5mm then you get $0.69 TBV/sh. Obviously, TBV/Sh is not a tell all, but this company is purchasing life settlements and also growing a life securitization business. This is a balance sheet business. Even if you assume that the fair value of the policies is dead accurate, how do you get comfortable with any of this the moment you know LMAIS II debt can be redeemed by the LPs that put up the capital commitment. They also drew the full amount on their DDTL Facility, which is part of their Senior Secured Facility, in September 2025 which is SOFR + 5.25% the draw amount of $50mm. Regarding redemptions - $17mm redeemed, but they also had $26mm of additional LP interests (again this is the LMAIS II "debt"). If you look at their statement of cash flows that $26mm is being marked as debt issuance "to third parties." So they pay off their LMATT notes for $11.2mm in Jan of 2025, LMAIS I of $22.9m, and covered the LMAIS II redemption of $17mm for a total of $51.2m, which also equals their "repayment of debt" line item in the statement of cash flows. They have a cash and equivalents of $38mm. Keep all of this mind while they're repurchasing $43.7mm of shares. Just seems insane.

If this is all it takes to be a fed governor my 7 year old would like to throw her hat in the ring

Public comment period won’t stop federally mandated flows. $SOC

$ACIC $CB $UVE $HRTG American Coastal buying back their stock is a great sign. They have done the special dividend each year at the end of the year and that is my favorite use of their cash, but to buy 1% of their float in a single transaction opportunistically tells me they are now in a position to put capital to work, vs a few years ago being on the verge of death. The easy math here is the legacy insurance firm is worth $20-$25, the new MGA is $7-$10 of value, the E&S is hard to value right now so just being cautious we will call it a $0 so, you are getting their 6% co part with AmRisc and ACES plus the MGA and half the insurance firm for nothing.

$NVGS Navigator Stack as of 12/31/2025

$NVGS Secondary offering announced for 7M shares with 3.5M public and 3.5M for the company themselves. Confidence from management and opportunistically buying stock while the 3.5M to the public is likely way oversubscribed - lot of interest in owning shares in Navigator.

@davidinnanen We concur

@100xCompounding have to think $ifp.to has huge upside over a decent hold period

Sometimes the best value isnt the new idea but in adding to what you know and have gained additional conviction in. Since Jan 1 2026 we have added to the following positions: $SOC Sable Offshore $FPH Five Point Holdings $NVGS Navigator Gas $OLN Olin Corporation $MT ArcelorMittal $ACIC American Coastal Insurance $IFP.CA Interfor Corporation

Oil is $100+ and oil producers are down none of this makes sense - unless you think this is a short lived conflict? Not sure what the bear argument is on oil, gold etc except that fading them for a decade has worked so this time won’t be any different

We are going to find out really soon if there are geological constraints to Permian production growth.

If oil goes to $200 and oil stocks trade flat that’ll be the most fitting end to the bullish oil narrative #OOTT #IranWar‌

I never try to predict where prices go but the fact futures haven’t exploded with the news of tonight’s events proves to me the market is sleep walking. This conflict just took a massive turn with the LNG facility in Qatar and now the refinery in the Red Sea. #IranWar #OOTT

If this is the YASREF that’s 400K of refining capacity per day There is also the Saudi Aramco Yanbu refinery that does 220-250K. Can anyone confirm which refinery was hit? #OOTT #IranWar

Oh no

No, it won’t.

We have successfully struck ARAMCO facilities in Riyadh.

Iran warns of strikes on Gulf oil facilities 'in coming hours', state media reports reut.rs/47UQyXo reut.rs/47UQyXo

QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City to the north of Doha, Qatar's main site for the production of liquefied natural gas and gas-to-liquid, as well as the largest export terminal for LNG in the world, has been heavily targeted tonight by ballistic missiles fired by Iran. Extensive damage to the site and several facilities are being reported by QatarEnergy.

Oil Company Uncovers Massive California Output Surge Amid Shortage ow.ly/56p550Yw0I3 Sable Offshore ( $SOC :NYSE) ramps California oil supply by 17% under federal order as global disruptions drive demand higher.