Warren Pies

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Warren Pies

Warren Pies

@WarrenPies

Founder @3F_Research | PM $RAA | $FCTE | Formerly with Ned Davis Research | Recovering Attorney (step 4) - Not investment advice

FL Katılım Şubat 2014
1.8K Takip Edilen73.1K Takipçiler
taobanker
taobanker@taobanker·
The market is actually easy. Just look for the people who are losing their minds because their rational thesis isn't working out, then fade them for longer than you would ever think reasonable.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
OIL The last month was the largest cumulative draw of total U.S. petroleum inventories ever. Gasoline inventories (seasonally adjusted) lowest since 2014. Distillate inventories lowest since 2003. Next few weeks is a crucial window for oil fundamentals.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
Nebius ($NBIS) raising on-demand pricing by 29%. The 3Fourteen GPU Availability Index went from 80% at the beginning of the year to 9%. GPU availability leads pricing. B200 still at 0%...GH200 tightening further.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
@PollockJaxon This fund runs off of our Real Asset Allocation Model. It is 100% systematic/non-discretionary. So, my views on relative attractiveness do not factor into the model. For execution, we generally build our own baskets to keep pass through costs low.
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Jaxon Pollock👍🟦
Jaxon Pollock👍🟦@PollockJaxon·
@WarrenPies Noticing you have roughly 3x exposure to miners vs energy in $RAA. Curious on the rationale - not challenging the thinking, just trying to understand it. Is it primarily a valuation thesis? And how do you think about a ‘miners’ allocation - industrial $PICK vs precious $GDX?
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
S&P 500 SENTIMENT It seems there is a little residual PTSD from the Q1 correction. The 2% pullback caused a spike in inverse ETF volume up to 37%. Typically, you see 40% after a pullback. 50% after a correction. And, 60% after a full bear mkt. Nice mid-rally sentiment reset.
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Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
@fantanacap Yes...good to see a little retail skittishness on minor pullback.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
@PrydZz888 API...no reason to be skeptical of EIA. EIA mandatory and comprehensive...API neither.
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DCP
DCP@Dcpcooks·
@WarrenPies If only bonds could smell this out
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
Yes I am familiar w/ that line of thinking Jan Hatzius talked about it last year. Suffice to say, I don't think that is a good way of thinking about it...There is a sizable multiplier effect to the capex b/c it ripples out into the supply chain and triggers knock-on investment. Moreover, it positively impacts the wealth effect since ~18% of the S&P 500 is semis (>50% tech). So, all Americans are tech investors now. In short, its similar to residential construction. It is only 4ish% of GDP, but has a massive multiplier effect. I don't think AI capex is there yet, but it is not a zero b/c of imports.
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Peter Boockvar
Peter Boockvar@pboockvar·
Honest question as I don't know the answer. A lot of that EPS growth is coming from semi's which are produced overseas (and thus the mfr'g GDP contribution is elsewhere while the EPS growth is domestic) and imported to the US which is an actual drag on nominal GDP from an accounting standpoint. Can we still do that level of NGDP? Thanks.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
S&P 500 forward sales growth is projected at ~18% over the next 24 months. Historically, this corresponds to ~12.4% NGDP growth (about 6% annualized). Something to consider as yields (and the Fed) look for a new equilibrium.
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Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
Thanks. Demand destruction will come from petchem and airlines via shortages (naphtha and jet)...mostly an Asian phenomenon...Long way to go before we get traditional (price-based) demand destruction in the U.S...maybe starts around 140. My base case is that the Fed is on a hold and hikes have a high bar...In our framework, fair value for 10y is something like 4.75-4.85 (if this is a prolonged hold not a looming hike). So, if the econ actually settles in at 6% NGDP, 4.75 not so bad...Just some back of the envelope thoughts.
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
@TheStalwart Every cyclical fad is some sort of rebellion and all the older gen has to do to stop it is to embrace it.
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Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
On 1: The relationship definitely will change as price hits different levels (including the potential/probability to flip completely). On 2: Yes. Oil staying stuck at $110 will have an entirely different rate impact than oil touching $110. I'd say price action post Xi summit is the tell (there was much hope for an Iran deal)...oil just hanging out at the 105-107 level and entire rates complex repricing...hence the red dot moving straight to the right on the chart.
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@aahan_prometheus
@aahan_prometheus@AahanPrometheus·
I guess what I’m saying is that: 1. It can make sense that the sensitivity is higher above a certain price level 2. But does the duration matter, if the price doesn’t move? Let’s say the closure continues, but oil is a dud. The duration wouldn’t really matter to the relationship with yields right? So doesn’t it just boil down to the changes in oil prices?
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Warren Pies
Warren Pies@WarrenPies·
SOH vs Fed Early in the War, rates moved with the price of oil in a linearly...Oil up = fewer cuts Oil is now below where it was in late-April (4/29), but rate cut pricing has drifted out of the market Translation: There are two dimensions at work: Price level and duration
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Keşfet

@taobanker @pinkhasov @Tyler_Neville_ @tylermacro10 @PollockJaxon @MysteriousLlam1 @fantanacap @PrydZz888