Warren Pies

Historically, during soft landings, the S&P 500 rips in 6 months leading into a first Fed cut. Would put the market at 5,200 by May... First time speaking w/ the great @ScottWapnerCNBC was a blast!

New report out to 3FR clients. Examining: -The closing taco window, -How the war has eliminated the post-War glut, raised the equilibrium oil price, and tied the Fed's hands, -Equity outlook.

@DerivativesDon @rev_cap Def...I picture Rev in his mansion w/ Fox News on one TV and OAN on the other...That's what they call geopolitical alpha

@WarrenPies @rev_cap Gotta play the casino they put you in Anyone who doesn’t watch both sides doesn’t get it

Fox News tonight basically pleading with Trump to bail from Iran Even Laura Ingraham blasting Trump for underestimating Iran and not anticipating that they could close the Strait

@Foxy_Trader967 @EnergyPeddler I’d expect them to get to products at some point…but easier to do crude first…

@WarrenPies @EnergyPeddler I mean they could do both crude and products export ban tbf

U.S. oil export ban likely...especially once U.S. officials realize that if we export our SPR barrels they are likely to end up in China's SPR. W/o a corresponding product/gasoline export ban, then we run it back to pre-2015 days when domestic crack spreads blew out.

@rev_cap @toiletkingcap Asia/Europe pain. Of course U.S. stocks won’t be immune

@WarrenPies @toiletkingcap What’s the macro implication

Yeah this is obvious to those of us who have watched the petro markets for our careers. But, I'm trying to game out how the admin reacts. The optics of releasing our SPR into China are untenable. Also, there is a generalist belief that being a net exporter insulates us from pushing Asia (ex-China) into recession.

@WarrenPies Won’t work well without product exports banned also. Any kind of ban with cement a global recession, which will hit Americans way worse than $4.00 gasoline.

@KYRRadio Appreciate that Zach!

If you’re looking for greater understanding of what’s going on, here’s another great follow. And a good guy

@houd__vast I'm not making a policy recommendation...just reading tea leaves.

@WarrenPies This would be an epic mistake.

@TheStalwart Inconsequential

Boom . There it is *TRUMP WAIVES JONES ACT IN BID TO CURB HIGH FUEL PRICES

@joemccann Thx. It’s our data.

@WarrenPies Great chart. Where are you sourcing this data? Is there a doc somewhere I can read?

Jensen confirming what we are seeing in our GPU availability data: There is an epic scramble for compute. B200 basically unavailable. Availability for GH200, H100, and A100 also collapsing. *Low availability = high demand. $NVDA

@willkit27 Respectfully, no and that answer should be obvious.

@WarrenPies If US is a net exporter of energy and the largest producer of oil isn’t it immune

@Agent0088156721 30 days or so...jet is special and worth watching...especially in Asia.

@WarrenPies Thx for sharing. The pinch. Where does diesel inventory lie in the rule of thumb

@WaterworldCapi1 Big rally or big drop depending on tea leaves

Shout out to @WarrenPies & @3F_Research: today is literally your day. Keep up the great work.

FWIW, here’s last month’s conversation I referenced… cnbc.com/video/2026/02/…

Went to the NYSE this afternoon to talk markets w/ @ScottWapnerCNBC @CNBCClosingBell Oil still driving everything...next week is crucial. cnbc.com/video/2026/03/…

@pickeringenergy Thx Dan! It’s a rare sight

Mandatory repost - not just for good analysis but to highlight @WarrenPies in a tie.