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@FirstSquawk productivity so high? Where?

HASSETT: STOCK MARKET CELEBRATING BECAUSE PRODUCTIVITY SO HIGH

@RudyHavenstein @CliffordAsness the branding?

What exactly was "capitalist" about the bankster bailouts of 2008, the hedge fund bailouts of 2000, or the Silicon Valley Bank billionaire bailouts of 2023? @cliffordasness

@StevenJ1279 @RedboxWire traditionally whatever words follow “Trump says” are the dumbest words in the English language.

@RedboxWire "Trump says" is the stupidest 2 words in the English language.

TRUMP SAYS IRAN’S ENRICHED URANIUM WILL EITHER BE HANDED OVER TO THE US FOR DESTRUCTION OR DESTROYED UNDER INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC OVERSIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH TEHRAN - TRUTH SOCIAL

@FirstSquawk Iranian school girls took 10 times those losses. winning!

TRUMP SAYS US LOST 13 SERVICE MEMBERS IN OPERATION EPIC FURY, WHILE CLAIMING VENEZUELA OPERATION WAS A “TOTAL VICTORY” WITH ZERO US CASUALTIES

@FirstSquawk It seems hard to believe Iran will give up all of their leverage which is what this implies. My guess is Iran is expecting their money unfrozen, and the ability to levy tolls, oops I mean service fees.

THE DRAFT AGREEMENT STIPULATES THE CONTINUATION OF NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS TO REACH LONG-TERM UNDERSTANDINGS

@AndreasSteno When people say a deal is priced in they mean the equity markets which based on performance have incrementally priced it in about 15 times already.

Everyone says the "deal is already priced in", but if that is the case, why are we sooooooo far from pre-war levels in a lot of the most directly impacted assets?

@TaviCosta what is the thinking behind higher debt leading to lower rates? I understand the incentive to reduce debt service costs, but the only way to force that is insanely massive money printing and YCC. Is that the argument?

This is very interesting. The Bruegel Institute calculated how much the structural primary deficit would need to improve in order to stabilize public debt levels. For the US, the required adjustment is about 5.5% of GDP. Good luck with that. We would probably see a depression if that happened today. Debt is likely to keep compounding and that should inevitably lead to lower rates and a weaker dollar over time. Act accordingly… open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…

@NWTrader01 @zerohedge They are doing what governments do.

@zerohedge "convenience fee", "climate change fee", "delivery fee", "living wage fee", "administrative fee", etc. They're just doing what corporations do.

Iran's toll on the Strait of Hormuz won't be called it a toll, which is technically not permitted by the UNCLOS, but will be called a service fee instead

@Rory_Johnston @ShaIenden Possible, but it would be a serious tail between your legs surrender to go back to the Obama deal plus Iran charging tolls like the strait is a Florida highway.

@ShaIenden Nope, this is what a deal would likely look like: US doesn’t “recognize” Hormuz control, but doesn’t act to prevent that effective reality.

While sassy, this kinda stuff feels very deal-positive.

@FirstSquawk So they accidentally deleted the child diddling videos?

NETANYAHU TELLS CLOSE AIDES HE HAS NO SAY IN TRUMP’S DECISIONS

@wealthion @biancoresearch the boom is only rationale if we are about to get massive agent deployments. That will show up as productivity. So far it hasn’t.

Jim Bianco says investors may not be able to underweight stocks, even with major macro risks building. Why? Because the AI trade still has momentum — and he argues the boom is not entirely irrational.

@Shootermcgg @Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry yes they do both. they are moving more to toll based mechanisms for enterprise. The point being this gives them higher revenue than before the policy change for a given level of usage. You aren’t accounting for that.

@1020thoughts @Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry ? They do both: subscriptions and api usage

Many are using this chart to prove Jevons Paradox is working. They should look closer at the pattern and read Heretic’s Guide Part III. open.substack.com/pub/michaeljbu… Prices had already fallen for some time when the big token demand lift happened. Tokenmaxxing and benchmarking are much better explanation than Jevons Paradox based on the timeline than prices of tokens falling. In fact this chart may not show Jevons Paradox at all. And, if it does not, that is some massive benchmarking demand that is temporary and sending the wrong demand signal up and down the supply chain. Perhaps skipping a few cycles in the bullwhip effect. michaeljburry.substack.com/p/the-heretics…

@Shootermcgg @Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry Anthropic is also taking market share, and has moved away from flat pricing to token metered pricing. The first argues against wide extrapolation, and the second suggests revenue is not directly tied to usage growth.

@1020thoughts @Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry Anthropic made $9B in ARR in q42025 then $19B q12026 and projected between $30B and $50B q22026. So it seems the demand growth rate is much higher than the capex growth rate

@Shootermcgg @Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry I’m not saying there isn’t end user demand. There clearly is, and its growing. The question is, is that demand growing at a fast enough rate to justify investment levels. I would argue for this to be true there needs to be an absolute explosion of agents.

@1020thoughts @Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry Anthropic projected to be turning a profit soon and their demand is end-user demand isn’t it?

@Silent_fill0 @michaeljburry different demand. Demand for chips may truly be as high as they say. That doesn’t mean end user demand is. Demand for fiber optics was through the roof in 1999. Its just that they overbuilt relative to end user demand.

@michaeljburry Identifying a potential bullwhip effect in AI token demand while Micron’s CEO is saying they can only fill 60% of HBM orders is a fascinating collision. One says demand is overstated and temporary. The other says supply can’t keep up. Both can’t be right for long.

@michaeljburry Google has a blog post showing 7x increase in token usage over the past year. Sounds impressive until you realize a huge chunk is because they embedded gemini in search a year ago. That is push token consumption not pull. #conversational-ai" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">blog.google/innovation-and…

@FirstSquawk Translation: status quo, strait stays closed. Iran isn’t letting ships through with a blockade in place.

TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: One of the worst deals ever made by our Country was the Iran Nuclear Deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama Administration. It was a direct path to Iran developing a Nuclear Weapon. Not so with the transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration - THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact! The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. I would like to thank, thus far, all of the countries of the Middle East for their support and cooperation, which will be further enhanced and strengthened by their joining the Nations of the historic Abraham Accords and, who knows, perhaps the Islamic Republic of Iran would like to join, as well! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

@AndreasSteno yeah its really unusual for Trump to just make stuff up. I’m not sure how to process this bizarre behavioral anomaly.

But you announced the deal yesterday?

@RepThomasMassie You still need to get those 500 signatures and run as an independent.

A peek behind the scenes... I’m in a remote studio van in my home town of Garrison, Kentucky, ready to go live on Meet the Press!

@te_aser2 @Im_Alan2 @DeItaone Retard indeed. We bombed Afghanistan for almost 2 decades before realizing the Taliban were not all dead, and giving up.

@Im_Alan2 @DeItaone Retard the US can just keep bombing Iran until all irgc members are dead

IRAN'S FARS SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ WOULD REMAIN UNDER IRAN'S MANAGEMENT CONTRARY TO TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT