Tim

Still trying to understand the logic behind $IREN's ATM. Why in the hell would a company do this? The authorization is up to $6B, and if fully utilized, it would represent more than 40% of the company’s value today. Which is really, really unusual. Large ATM authorizations of this scale usually show up in microcaps, small biotechs, distressed names, or special situations, not in companies that already have established cash flows and a visible path to future ones. Even the most aggressive large-cap example I could find doesn’t come close. For example, $MSTR announced a $21B ATM in November 2024. It was the largest ATM offering in the history of capital markets. But even that represented less than a quarter of the company’s market cap at the time. Which is why $IREN's ATM feels so out of order. I know the bulls will write 3,000-word essays with 32 links below explaining why this is actually bullish, why scale is the Holy Grail for data centers, why this is strategic optionality, and why everyone else just doesn’t get it. Maybe. But one thing is clear: Every $IREN rally over the next year or two now has a guillotine hanging over it. Every time investors commit capital on the way up, they will have to ask the same question: how much dilution follows this rally? And then weigh that against both the present market cap and whatever future valuation they think the company can grow into, because this ATM is simply mammoth in size. There’s a reason companies usually do not structure ATMs at this scale. I’m not saying $IREN has definitively got this wrong. Stranger things have happened, and it’s worth waiting to see how it plays out. But in my view, this is yet another puzzling decision by management. It also fits a broader pattern that, to me, goes back to earlier choices, including not building a software stack with that mining capital, which in hindsight looks like an unused cheat code. Fair play! (Not investment advice.)

What to expect from week 3 wegovy pill sales. Once again, the obesity spaces will be looking for new data tomorrow on how wegovy pill sales goes. TRx data from Symphony will be released between 8-9 AM CET. Just before the Danish stock exchange opens at 9 AM. Later at 12 CET IQVIA TRx data will be released. Data last Friday (week 2 of wegovy pill) was a big surprise. In my preview last Thursday, I said IQVIA data at TRx +12,000. But when data was released Friday, the number was TRx 18,410, A 500% increase over week 1 data Symphony data was even higher at TRx20,371. That’s higher numbers than what Zebpound reached in week 3 after its launch. Zepbound hit 20,162 in week 3. What will data show tomorrow? Theres still full steam ahead at online forums and SoMe channels. Activity goes up. I also so a RO commercial with 15 million views and more than 600 comments few hours after it went online. I have seen IQVIA TRx data from two days in week 3. Those were up with 65% over same data in week 2. But that huge winter storm that hit US will impact both this weeks data release but especially next week. These one-day spot TRx data are not as accurate as the week data that gets released each Friday. Especially here in the beginning at the launch. If we look at all one-day spot TRx from week two, then they indicated TRx just below 14,000. And as mentioned, they ended at TRx 18,410. I think we should see IQVIA TRx numbers tomorrow at + 24,000. And Symphony likely still 1,000-3,000 higher than IQVIA. For comparison Zepbound week 3 Symphony data was TRx20,162 and IQVIA TRx 15,500 TRx means total number of scripts/persons that have ordered Wegovy Pill.  BUT the data we get now is ONLY the physical sale from pharmacies and insurances. It does not include data for all the telehealth where the consumer chooses to get wegovy pill shipped to their home address. And it does not include $NVO own “Telehealth” NovoCare. So, the actual number is larger than wat is reported each Friday. But in xxx weeks those online sales will also be included in the reporting. $NVO will report 2025 ER next week. They might say a bit more about those online data IQVIA and Symphony does not include yet. $LLY $VKTX $PFE $MRK