ResearchPulse@ResearchPulse1
Week 10 preview of Wegovy Pill sales
Tomorrow will bring us wegovy pill sales data from week 10
TRx data from Symphony will be released between 7-8 AM CET. Just before the Danish stock exchange opens at 9 AM.
Later at 11 CET IQVIA TRx data will be released.
Last week IQVIA data was TRx 81,184 up 10.4% and just above my 80,000 estimates.
Last week Symphony TRx 71,990 up with 12.2% and was well above my 69,000 estimates.
Week 9 was the first week of “real”data for up titration to 9mg. Those who strictly follow the titration plan. They will hit 9mg after 9weeks. We should therefore see a new and likely even bigger jump in 9mg with w10 data.
Just to reiterate the reason why this is very important to follow.
1.5mg and 4mg cost $149. But that jumps to $299 for 9mg and 25mg doses.
With more than 80% of current wegovy pill users that pay cash, it’s only natural that a higher percentage than those covered by insurance will not titrate to the higher and more expensive doses. But what level of up titration should we expect for those paying cash? That’s one of the most interesting/important questions to ask.
It will take some months more before we know. Also, since quite a few takes an extra month on 4mg because they still lose more weight. And the best way to use all these GLP1 are to not titrate up to higher doses, when you still lose more at current dose.
W9 had 8.1% (up from 6.9%) on 9mg and 25mg. I expect that to pass 10% in w10.
The share of those who have insurance coverage for wegovy pills has been steady at 19% for the last 3 weeks. It’s important to see that number increase before expected Orforglipron launch in about 4 weeks.
When IQVIA data is released tomorrow, I will be looking for above TRx 94,000 or more than 15% up.
However, we know that it’s still not much more than 50% of total sales that gets reported. And both IQVIA and $NVO have said they expect a much higher share of online sales to be included in IQVIA reporting towards the end of Q1. So, we could potentially see a significantly higher jump than those 14% I mentioned above.
I have TRx +175,000 for week 10 when all online sales are included.
Bonus info.
NVO will have their AGM next Thursday. Followed by an investor meeting. I see it as highly likely that they will show full data up to w11.
Symphony data does not track online data well. But we should get a bigger jump this time. For tomorrow I will be looking for above TRx83,000. Up above 15%
Media has for some weeks been reporting the wrong Symphony numbers. They report NRx instead of TRx. TRx = total. So might be a bit confusing until we know exactly what data is released.
For comparison Zepbound week 10 from Symphony was TRx 62,516 and IQVIA TRx 55,672
Besides wegovy pill, I would also keep an eye open for wegovy pen and Zepbound data. Both have had some quite good increases the last to week. Will we see a retraction or confirmation…..
$LLY $NVO $VKTX
PS if any of you readers should happen to have axes access to IQVIA NBRx data I would be very interested
