Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Update on my $BTC predictions: I outlined downside targets we finally tapped.
If we repeat summer '21 [big dump before new highs], we don't go below $70k, ideally $75k, on the monthly here.
Roadmap to recovery assumes:
~force seller mostly exits
~tariffs overturned by courts
~Fed consensus on additional Q1 cuts
~AI bubble doesn't pop
It isn't 4 year cycles driving the market. Its the macroeconomic backdrop + institutional f*ckery-
Binance breaking on 10/10 and large player(s) forced to exit while the investing landscape is largely risk off, which means we lack the ability to absorb this high volume exit and go lower.
That also means the path to recovery for crypto is clear-
This selloff is removing the unhealthiest DATs and institutional holders. When the macro climate pivots dovish and liquidity flows back to risk assets, we can rise again with less structural risk.
But what if we don't recover over $70k? The second box here is my "ideal" target for bear market, between $50 and $60k.
But lower is possible depending on the circumstances, for example if a large player has to unwind in a hurry, like we see now, we could dip as low as the $30s but that would get bought up really quick.
xpapi@1MrPapi
Revisiting this post from last week, my 2-cents: •Bulls need stability: a dovish Fed + tariffs settled •BTC can retest as low as ~$75k (.236 fib) •More bullish supports: $81k, $93k, $96k, $99-100k •Bullish over $75k, timeline extending due to macro
English
