xpapi

Update on my $BTC predictions: I outlined downside targets we finally tapped. If we repeat summer '21 [big dump before new highs], we don't go below $70k, ideally $75k, on the monthly here. Roadmap to recovery assumes: ~force seller mostly exits ~tariffs overturned by courts ~Fed consensus on additional Q1 cuts ~AI bubble doesn't pop It isn't 4 year cycles driving the market. Its the macroeconomic backdrop + institutional f*ckery- Binance breaking on 10/10 and large player(s) forced to exit while the investing landscape is largely risk off, which means we lack the ability to absorb this high volume exit and go lower. That also means the path to recovery for crypto is clear- This selloff is removing the unhealthiest DATs and institutional holders. When the macro climate pivots dovish and liquidity flows back to risk assets, we can rise again with less structural risk. But what if we don't recover over $70k? The second box here is my "ideal" target for bear market, between $50 and $60k. But lower is possible depending on the circumstances, for example if a large player has to unwind in a hurry, like we see now, we could dip as low as the $30s but that would get bought up really quick.

Reporter: "To what extent are Americans' financial situations motivating you to make a deal?" President Trump: "Not even a little bit…I don't think about Americans' financial situations."

@WatcherGuru Truly Making America Great Again. I hope he can run for like 3 more terms because we and especially his supporters deserve this and so much more.

FML I lost my hardware wallet in the move. Couldn't find it anywhere among my bags. Luckily I just found my backup keys.. holy f*ck this is not the kind of stress I need right now.

@florida_grand When you cater to boomers with their ill gotten wealth.. this is probably the end result. Next up: Florida nursing home and nurses are going to surge in demand over the coming 10-20 years.

Sign of the economy in Florida: My son, who has worked as a server at a restaurant in downtown St. Petersburg for five years, said it was “the busiest weekend ever” for Mother’s Day weekend. He typically clears at least $1,500 in tips in a weekend but he said he “made twice that.” Take that for what it’s worth, pun intended.

@flounders912 @_andrewthecoder Yeah I wish the whole country did what Colorado did and banned companies from asking for any age-identifying information on job applications. It bans inquiries into anything including graduation dates of schools.

@_andrewthecoder @1MrPapi He's right though a lot of it is date driven. We can't discriminate on age but we can class a role as 15 to 20 years experience and we will cut 20 years and 1 day as not suitable. Cut at 20

I have a hard time believing that I am just unhireable. But I have an even harder time believing that my 25 years of experience is somehow negated by the format of my resume. But, after over 2,000 applications, I am not sure what else to think. And, out of the dozens of emails (perhaps over 100) to hiring managers with inquiries about what might be happening, I have received ZERO response. I have done some reverse engineering of some popular ATS systems and found some interesting trends; things like translating words like "founder" and "freelancer" to "unemployed", as one example (though, admittedly, the end user of the ATS is responsible for such translations). So, now add to everything else, I am being punished for running successful businesses for over a decade. Kind of at the end of my rope here. I have to start thinking about what retirement looks like, and I am just plain NOT HIREABLE. Career change at this point doesn't seem likely. I have literally never done anything professionally other than write software (at least, not since college anyway). This is actually going to start affecting my way of life, my standard of living, not to mention the people that count on me to provide. Please don't take this as anything more than venting. I am not blaming anyone, and I am not looking for sympathy. I know a lot of you are experiencing a very similar situation!

@shearersbuddy @ClownWorld Yeah I'm waiting for that part of the adoption curve where this was true. So far every single company claims AI is the reason to lay off hundreds of thousands. Nearly no one has claimed it offers a huge opportunity to expand capacity and grow reveneue.

@ClownWorld No it won’t eliminate those jobs…. But I am (genuinely) fed up explaining why. If you can’t work out why AI is just a tool for people that work in those jobs then you don’t understand the majority of those roles. The same was said about the internet/google with a lot of roles.

Artificial intelligence will eliminate an estimated 85 million jobs in the next decade White collar jobs. Not just factory work. Accountants. Paralegals. Radiologists. Writers. Customer service. Coders The trades will survive The electrician. The plumber. The welder. The HVAC guy Nobody can automate a man with his hands in the wall 🔧

Yeah I don't even mention salary or I lie and make up a history thats a lot lower. And I have run into that dates thing, which I'd honestly fudge dates but I'm personally stuck because my army service I can't lie about that. But some gigs or C2C or past jobs you had? Bump it up a few years man, they aren't likely to go back that far, even IF they check references (I've had almost none check references). That said I'm in it with you. Going on 8+ months searching for full time employment. Been focusing more on trades because I think its impossible to compete on many white collar fields when every opening has 1,000+ people applying..

I have tried some of these things. I have a version of my resume with no dates, but some application processes REALLY want to see those dates. The salary expectation is a double edged sword. Cuz to be honest, at this point, the stability is more important to me than the money. I have offered to take a LOT LESS, but that seems to spook employers cuz it looks like I am settling, waiting for a better opportunity. Damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing.

And if it helps, I hate to be that guy but changing careers might be in the books. This is a profoundly bad time for the American worker and its not going to get better overnight... especially with politicians that are effectively ignoring the problem. You don't need experience for many trades. Tho these opportunities are shrinking, they are out there. I've been looking at the shipbuilding and maritime industries. I managed to get a seat in a trade school too, but thats starting in October and I'm exploring maritime stuff in the meantime. I'm probably close to your age, so depending on your level of phsyical activity, thats the only limiting factor to consider so do research.

A couple tips: Remove anything that dates you more than say 15 years. College degree? Put completed but not the year. You get the idea. Lower salary expectations. Okay you lowered them? Now lower them more. I was told by a guy at the VA that in my field I had to target salaries 50% below what I was making to even get my foot in the door. Job fairs. Thats your best shot to engage human to human, not ATS. Certs. Make sure you are up to date. And grab some bs AI certs too, just to show you know them. If you can't at least do basic automation with say GPT or use Claude's more advanced features, you probably won't get interviews. It needs to be visible in the resume.

There is no counterpoint. This is the reality that Americans have been brainwashed to deny. Richest most powerful country in history denies it citizens the “privilege” of healthcare & education. But we have all the money in the world to bomb and kill Arabs for like 30 years.

Great news! Congress is proposing a bill for public school teachers that will mandate starting base salaries of $60,000, plus a $50,000 signing bonus, overtime pay of 25% of their base salary, and student loan forgiveness of up to $60,000! Just kidding. That’s the federally mandated compensation package for an ICE agent. - BP Sweany

@business Highly doubt.

As recruitment firms shed large parts of their workforce across the globe, growing demand for recruiters in the US points to a stronger-than-expected job market. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@NejXBT All good brother, I don't need money. Thank you for the offer, tho, you are a good guy 🙏 I have savings. Though I'm basically burning through my retirement funds at this point, I'll be okay.

@1MrPapi papi do send me your ERC20 address or whichever address is most convenient, I would like to help out however I can

That weird feeling of being a ghost in your own home. It's the last night I get to stay in my house. Divorce finalizes next week. I move out tomorrow. At least I got to spend a little more time with my dog before saying bye. He doesn't ever lay on me to nap but tonight he did.

@punk9059 Most Americans don’t have big stock portfolios. If any. Most Americans have been proper f*cked by inflation, high rates, high oil/gas, and a crumbling labor market. But hey at least the top 1% is eating good. That’s all that really matters.

stock market at all-time highs. US Consumer sentiment at all time lows.

Give it a few months and another 1,000 applications and you will grow numb to it. Give it a few more months and you’ll apply to be a garbage man. You’ll get rejected even for that role, but you’ll still apply. After that you just kind of crash out into an endless cycle of rejection.

@LayoffAI I've applied for 50 or 60 jobs in the last few weeks and it feels like I'm blacklisted or something. I even applied to jobs I was recommended for by employees working there

9 of every 10 new American jobs since pre-COVID went to someone born outside the country. Triple checked the data. It's real. +4.3M foreign-born. +471K native-born. Meanwhile, 335,000+ American layoffs in 2026. HOW DO WE ALLOW THIS?

@smithwbrian68 @FinanceLancelot If you believe 4.3%, I have a bridge to sell you.

Unemployment is currently at 4.3%- from a historical perspective, quite low. Given the volatility and significant economic/financial changes being implemented by the Trump administration, we don't need or want exponential job creation which would likely contribute to higher inflation.

The average monthly U.S. job creation has fallen below 20,000, making this the worst economy since the depths of the 2020 and 2008 crises. We've never seen annual jobs numbers this low outside of recession.

@MSUinIL @FinanceLancelot I can assure you enough there is no cooking the books with federal workers. DC has the worst unemployment in the country.

@FinanceLancelot Rework all of the job “growth” to remove government jobs. Show private sector only. Then show me the results. A previous mechanism for cooking the books was hiring public employees when the economy was faltering.

@FinanceLancelot @txgermanbre We are firmly in the depths of a profound recession that the media and government keep whitewashing ..

@factpostnews Use brain worms. I hear it’s more effective, more natural.

New reporting reveals RFK Jr. is exploring banning certain SSRIs, potentially barring drugs like Zoloft, Prozac and Lexapro. Decades of research shows SSRIs are safe and effective.

@CSayenga @StephsMundo @DarrigoMelanie No Democratic President ever sent you into a recession, started a war, made billions of dollars for themself and their family, or raped women and kids. But here we are.

@StephsMundo @DarrigoMelanie No Democrat EVER voted to cut my taxes.

"consumers are literally running out of money" — Heinz CEO You can’t budget your way out of being exploited for profit in every aspect of your life. None of this is sustainable.