

Ian Higgins
3.5K posts

@1anhiggins
Seeing the game for what it is more clearer every day
























⭕️How to select a stock (fundamental checklist + explanation of each point): 1⃣ Revenue & growth quality (Is growth durable?) → Revenue CAGR (5y) > 8–10% (business expansion) → Forward revenue growth (next 2y) > (markets price the future, not the past) → Organic growth → Gross margin stable/expanding (≥ 40% for high-quality businesses, ideally) → No cyclical picks unless clearly understood 2⃣ Profitability & capital efficiency (Are returns strong?) → Operating margin > 15% (business with edge) → Net margin > 10% → ROIC > 12–15% (kinda core metric I would say) → ROE > 15% (without leverage distortion, make sure to always check it out for not falling into a trap) → Stable or improving margins over time 3⃣ Balance sheet & solvency (Can it survive stress?) → Debt / Equity < 0.8 (how much the company relies on borrowing?) → Net Debt / EBITDA < 2 (how many years it would take to repay the debt?) → Interest coverage > 5x (how easily the company can pay interest?) → Current ratio > 1.5 (short term liquidity/can the company pay bills in the enxt 12 months?) → No refinancing risk in next 2–3 years (we don't want this scenario) 4⃣ Cash flow quality (Is it real money?) → FCF margin > 10% (cash left after operating costs + necessary investments) → FCF conversion ≥ 80% (how much profits turn into real cash?) → Positive FCF for 5+ years (shows business strength) → Capex under control (no constant heavy reinvestment just to survive) → Share count stable or decreasing (to avoid dilution) 5⃣Valuation vs growth (Am I overpaying?) → P/E < 20 (or justified by growth) (How much do I pay for $1 of profit?) → EV/EBIT < 15 (Enterprise value/operating profit -> more complete than P/E as it includes debt) → Price/FCF < 15–18 → Compare vs peers, not absolute only (no distortion betwen different industries) 6⃣MOAT & competitive positioning (Why this company?) → Market share stable or increasing → Pricing power (can raise prices without losing customers) → High switching costs or strong brand → Industry structure favorable (not hyper-competitive) → Clear edge vs competitors 7⃣Management & capital allocation (Who's running it?) → ROIC sustained over time → Smart use of cash (buybacks at good prices, not peaks) → Insider ownership -> alignment (if they own stocks they're incentivized to do well) → Clear long-term strategy 8⃣Catalysts (Why now?) → New products/expansion markets → Margin "explosion" potential → Industry "external boosts" (AI, energy, demographics, etc.) -> Make "1+1" in order to find connections → Turnaround or inflection point (example: from loss to profitability?) → Not just “good company” but time the opportunity (no premium!) ⭕️Bonus: (not so bonus) Simplicity & conviction (Final filter I would say) → Can I explain the thesis in 2–3 sentences? → Do I understand how it makes money? → Is the story consistent across metrics? → If it’s complex → position size smaller or skip


