nevermor

Kinda own shitpost t.me/nevermrie

@maruushae Why need to schedule it if wintermute is always ready to fuck you ?

"Sending you my planing for the next e-sex"

@Sokio8D @knveth every 18yo has the choice right now to die for israel in the army or become onchain slaves for points

@wasserpest Citrini analyst 4 deployed in hot region with high probability of international trade route to be closed

almost back home…. any recommendations for the airport? anything good to eat or souvenirs to get?

I am trying to get more visibility on my posts so I am sharing my old trading alpha because that always does well Back when I was trading, WC, Sky and a couple of other friends spent a decent amount of time searching for tradfi entities, usually fintech and CFD providers, to abuse for our own benefits Many of you will remember the infamous ETH merge CFD abuse we carried on with @larpcapitalwc Today I’ll talk about something different Fun fact: I had 3 Swiss GmbH and 4 Estonian companies established in order to have access to this specific trade WC mentions in the quote tweet because Wise would black list you once they realized you were taking the piss. It’s a game of cat and mouse, I found things that made it difficult for them to spot me. Cayman and Hong Kong entities get you flagged immediately btw, ask me how I found out… There is good money to be made either by finding new platforms that may not have the best frameworks in their back end to spot toxic flow, or by simply finding new highly liquid pairs in Tradfi that get listed on chain For the former the tip is to focus on those startups that raised a bunch of money, because guess what, they can afford to burn some of it by offering deals that are too good to work in the real world, like allowing users to lock fx rates for 48h amidst a high vol event… For the later, I am guessing stuff got a lot more competitive since HIP-3 became mainstream. The old tip used to be to focus on pairs that few market participants would usually pay attention to on the venues you trade WHEN market participants pay the least attention to them (ex. Gold CFD on centralized crypto exchanges on weekends) I don’t want to say more because otherwise my friends might get mad at me lol But I can share a trade that I know is dead for non institutional traders When Bybit released the XAUT market, market participants didn’t give a flying shit or simply weren’t paying attention, which allowed me to do much better than I should’ve for much longer than I should’ve. The only explanation I could find was that it was a non-crypto listing which yes, usually means nobody cares about it, but in this case we’re talking about gold not some exotic fx product… I was max VIP on Bybit but I believe they had and still have unified VIP for spot and perps so it wasn’t a fee issue for those who rarely used spot markets either Regardless, I was ready upon listing and credit where credit is due someone was there quoting He just happened to be very bad at it lmao He was incredibly slow, as in I could pick him off manually just looking at IB mark price move type of slow. I made a terrible little automated strat that would hammer XAUT and PAXG back in line against IB. PAXG traded like 10$ below spot because of offramp fees or something so I added that in but I didnt do much volume it was far more efficient. For like genuinely 2 weeks I did much better than I had any business doing and I actually managed to get a bunch of volume in on XAUT, then it got more competitive and I think I pulled it a month or so after listing Here is the thing though, before HIP-3 people THOUGHT that Tradfi markets were completely closed on weekends and gold related perps would get a significant amount of volatility because MMs pulled quotes pushing the market far out of line at times Here’s the kicker, a bunch of protocols and CFD brokers offered 24/7 synthetic CFDs style markets, often called Weekend Gold CFDs. Spread was usually not great, but it didn’t matter since you’d only lift when there were large discrepancies I surprisingly enough was able to find such trades, across different pairs, basically until the day I retired. Some are still actionable, good luck TLDR: Same adage since the dawn of markets, focus on what others dismiss :)

Introducing The Fill™. The world's first Trader Companion Device. For traders who like to feel every position. Features: - Real-time market feedback - Vibrates on liquidation - Haptic alerts for fills - One-size fits all leverage Your portfolio isn't the only thing getting rekt tonight.

Reminder of how your counterparty looks like 💀

This might be the craziest post I’ve ever wrote and I have some mad ones on here If you care about AI for health/medicine read this: After seeing people use LLMs to figure out things about their health I figured I had to try I had an agent scrape research paper since my birth that mentioned either of my main disorders: Hemophilia A severe Pai-1 deficiency Ehlers-Danlos Reynaud Syndrome As you can imagine that’s a fair amount of data so it took a while Then I used my 87gb of personal medical files (lmfao) to cross-reference the papers in hopes of finding something doctors may have missed This post is about my findings and trust me you’re not gonna be disappointed: Found dozens of papers that don’t name me, but are about me like there is no shadow of a doubt, including one from John Hopkins and another from Cambridge One paper qualifies an event that I went through, something supposedly unbreakable that broke in an extraordinary fashion, as “an extraordinary stroke of misfortune” If you knew how funny it is to read this in hindsight Like I had open heart surgery because of said event and my parents were told multiple times to prepare for the worst, so seeing it written like that is very humorous But that’s nothing compared to what’s coming: Turns out Pai-1 deficiency is so rare that less than 10 families (including mine) have been publicly reported It’s believed to be one of the rarest bleeding disorders in the world (it’s underdiagnosed but imagine hemophilia is rare and it’s like 1/20,000 births, pai-1 is expected to be 1/500,000+) From all the sources I found + those already in my possession, I am, as far as we can tell, the only patient to have both said bleeding disorders In fact, if we only look at the odds mathematically, it’s very likely that I am the only person in the history of humanity to have had both 1 out of 100 Billion+… Mom wasn’t lying, I am special indeed But wait it gets so, so much more insane: Apparently the only known cluster for Pai-1 deficiency comes from families within the Old Order Amish of eastern and southern Indiana Yeah cool story I know but hang with me now Where did said Amish immigrated from in the 1800s? Switzerland From the part of the country my ancestors lived in to be precise… I found out that it’s entirely possible that I have the exact same gene mutation as said Amish because we could come from the same genetic pool Seriously what the fuck Still not done btw I’ve had chronic back pain for years, couldn’t be explained, imagery never came back with a definitive answer 2 research papers mention 2 different teen males with Pai-1 deficiency who complained for years about sharp lower back pain After extensive imagery they were both found to have recurrent psoas/iliopsoas bleeds But my doc’s should’ve seen those micro bleeds, how come they didn’t? I guarantee you that what the LLM found would’ve been missed by my entire medical team + myself, no human could’ve drawn these conclusions See when I go in the hospital these days I do multiple tests so that I don’t have to comeback 1st is a medicine check, administer a dose of clotting factor to test if it works as intended and cover risk for later injections during tests etc Those meds start working immediately, within 15 minutes I am at 233% of coagulation, meaning 2.3x stronger than you… It’s entirely possible that the bleeds get mostly treated by the time the imagery is done and hence it doesn’t show up or only very minimally Imagine I’ve gone to the hospital 100+ times to find out what could possibly be wrong with my back, including a 2 week hospitalization No human could’ve made a hypothesis that I could be experiencing micro bleeds that are common for Pai-1 deficient patients that cause the muscle to tense up and press against nerves but would not show up on imagery because my medication for another disease would’ve dealt with it by the time I got there Literally so insane I am lost for words

Just sayn, lot of doomposting, even jimbo over negative. If anything u should be happy, in current form this market hardly tradable at all, purge is good if u not hodler.

@zostaff VPIN it’s not just a buy/sell volume lol You have to find optimal probability of informed/uninformed flow and other unobserved params by making markout analysis and via MLE

I SAW THIS ARTICLE AT 11:27 PM AND DIDN’T SLEEP UNTIL 4:11 AM Read it three times, then just... started building. Took the Avellaneda-Stoikov quoting logic. Wired it to the Hawkes process for order flow. Added the VPIN circuit breaker exactly like the article says. Ran 500 simulations tonight: > Mean P&L: +$312/session > Sharpe: 1.87 > Win rate: 68% > VPIN saves: 11 sessions > Max drawdown: -$890 The VPIN part is insane btw, 11 times it pulled my quotes before informed flow ran me over, without it sharpe goes negative, just like that. Kyle's lambda estimation is literally 30 lines of python, i had no excuse not to build this. Side effect, now i can't sleep.

@BittexXBT @deltaxbt Still 100000000 P/E btw

wtf

Hyperliquid.

@avgcryptoguy Ur not alone

@shahh @maruushae

If you bought OIL 10 days ago, you would have outperformed everyone holding Ethereum for the past 8 years.

@maruushae Bro is going straight to polymarket next

Me when I buy puts but the price keeps going up, so I have to spam doom news retweets

@0xdasha @MythoYookay It’s literally the context, some workers in a company in Canada was pissed out that non halal food was prepared in the same microwave as their food

@MythoYookay theres always context, whats the context?

@maruushae Did you forgot to mention Europe? Or you guys can’t do anything except aperol and baguette ?

as usual kind asian man save retails, because america predatory rapist AI, nothing new under the sun

A bit done with the memory discussion, it's just a question of time before most jump in, few month/years, and rape absolutely everybody with huge supply, you guys forget we played those game plenty time, with memory/disk/GPU/electricity etc etc.. only bull case of memory stuff is assuming science will not proggress forward, or people will ignore 500% margin business Which if you think both are possible, at the same time in the next 5 years, i have a money who growth 10K$ per day to sell to you for 1M$

@maruushae Why not binary?

I can't wait to read the comments and have mentally challenged people explain why something that works perfectly at a level they could never hope to achieve should be done differently with rust

@ScottPh77711570 @coastal_quant @AgustinLebron3 Scott, any advices how to make execution better for normie ? (By normie I mean a guy without chair in firm that a priori giving an advantage)

@coastal_quant Adding to what @AgustinLebron3 said Its easy to find signals like this, they are only valuable to a firm with already good execution and many other signals

For the quant finance crowd: let's say you have a signal with high IC forecasting 1-day returns and high in-sample Sharpe ignoring costs. However bid/ask spreads are large so simulating a strategy including fees leads to very negative performance. How do you decide whether to: - Switch to maker instead of taker orders - Subset your signal to only tail positions - Slow down your signal / slow down your trading - Find longer term signals and use this faster one as an excution overlay - ... something else?

@heart_ Italiab inc getting ragebaited

1. we gatekeep the best pizzas in italy because we hate tourists and especially american tourists 2. no, italy doesn’t “live on tourism”, its a single digit % of gdp, we’re mostly an industrial and half-processed export country 3. Japan autism, they come here study 10 years under a pizzaiolo then go back and do it perfectly

@maruushae Nice chair to seat

I was expecting way worst as a first attempt to try doing a 3D bottle, but guess the import image function really carry