Tim Smith

568 posts

Tim Smith

Tim Smith

@2401timSmith

Katılım Şubat 2022
401 Takip Edilen26 Takipçiler
Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@InlandCaGuy @matthew_petti A large part of the destruction is economic infrastructure, plus the oversight on spending, how are you going to argue that it will not improve the lives of the population. Your argument makes 0 sense.
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daeveningglow
daeveningglow@InlandCaGuy·
@matthew_petti Yes, I understand all that. If sanctions hadn't been in place over time, Iran's people would be in better shape. Now that it has a giant swath of destruction to fix, it's not going to have the same effect as it would have otherwise
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Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓
Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓@matthew_petti·
“Iran” the nation didn’t massacre people. Iranians in uniform shot other Iranians on the streets. But the US bombed the entire nation — there’s protesters who survived the crackdown and died from bombing. And sanctions relief will benefit the entire nation.
daeveningglow@InlandCaGuy

Morally it might make some but, but much less so in a world where Iran hadn't butchered tens of thousands of people ahead of the war. Politically, it's just a dumb idea all together

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@mattlieb Trump, you were supposed to destroy the mullahs, not join them
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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@matthew_petti Fair point about Lebanon. Agreed, the hawks wanted unconditional surrender and now a negotiation is being framed as a total disaster even though both sides will end up getting things they want via compromise. Assuming negotiations go anywhere.
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Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓
Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓@matthew_petti·
@2401timSmith The deal that’s on the table is essentially just a more-for-more Super JCPOA. Hawks are mad for the same reason they were mad about the original, because they do not want to deal with Iran as an independent peer.
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Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓
Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓@matthew_petti·
A lot of the supposed “consequences” are just taking for granted hawkish views though like the idea that sanctions relief is giving away money that belongs to the United States by birthright.
Sami Gold@souljagoyteller

There’s this bizarre tendency by some lefties on here right now to attack any analysis of the Iran deal which describes its disastrous consequences for US foreign policy as somehow being “hawkish”. I know that this app doesn’t allow for body language but description does not mean endorsement

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@websterkaroon The silver lining at least is that if I had to bet on something being stronger than Israel's influence it would be Trump's pride.
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Alireza Talakoubnejad
Alireza Talakoubnejad@websterkaroon·
This feels very much like a mirror image to the 2013-2015 pre JCPOA era. Back then Rouhani had just been elected and expectations inside Iran were to the moon. Everyone thought European companies would be lining up to come into Iran, people were fighting over who would get the first Apple Store in Tehran ... our heads were in the clouds and completely in a dream world ... This time around there is 0 expectations and a near universal pessimism that this won't work out and either Israel will find a way to ruin it, Trump will lose interest, or Iran will overplay its hand. There are obvious reasons for this. The experience of the past decade has been extremely bitter. And every time there's been serious talks with Trump, it's ended up falling apart and ending in war. But maybe just like the optimism under Rouhani/Obama was too high, the pessimism now is also too much? Maybe it will all somehow work out?
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Mouin Rabbani
Mouin Rabbani@MouinRabbani·
Did you know that anti-Zionism is anti-Zionism? I didn't. Thanks for the heads up. Appreciate the herculean effort and sophisticated analysis required to produce this insight!
Adam Louis-Klein@adam_louis52328

@MouinRabbani Shut up mouin you are an abuser

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@ayatr0llah I think the comparisons many people are doing are so reductive that they are useless. Mainly I'm mad that it seems pretty much all of these points could have been agreed upon before this war even happened. What a waste.
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ayatrollah
ayatrollah@ayatr0llah·
@2401timSmith I think even Araghchi admitted they took serious damage. Point is that ultimately the comparisons to the JCPOA are kind of stupid. Strategic loss or win or not or whatever Trump / Biden took away a looooooot of old leverage IR had
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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@ayatr0llah Yeah definitely is difficult to tell, even before this round it doesn't seem clear just how damaged things were.
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ayatrollah
ayatrollah@ayatr0llah·
@2401timSmith Nah I haven’t I mean it’s kind of hard to tell no? I’m not sure how much additional damage this new round did
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Terry
Terry@terrybythebay·
@ZaidJilani Trump’s children and grandchildren are Jewish and Zionists. His attachment is more than bribery and flattery.
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Zaid Jilani
Zaid Jilani@ZaidJilani·
The difference between Trump and Biden on Israel is that Biden has an emotional attachment to Israel. Trump was just bribed and flattered. The bribery and flattering can only get you so far when it’s sinking his presidency.
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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@ayatr0llah I think everyone needs to remember that Trump is famous for saying everything no matter the contradictions. Dissecting lines here and there is stupid, and only worth doing if what he said was funny. Trump's word is not his bond and his bond is questionable at best lol.
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ayatrollah
ayatrollah@ayatr0llah·
This whole clip a sound bite and put an editorial spin on it thing is wack lol
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ayatrollah
ayatrollah@ayatr0llah·
Original question was about a civilian nuclear program and made no mention of enrichment. He make it sound like he’s skeptical of the need for a civilian nuclear program but understand where Iran is coming from. Afaict saying he’s open to enrichment is a leap?
Aaron Rupar@atrupar

Trump leaves door open to Iran enriching: "It's a little hard when other people have it, other adjoining states have it, and you're not letting them have it for purposes of electricity and things like that. You have to use a little common sense."

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@matthew_petti A professional think tank analyst is just now realizing America isn't actually interested in spreading freedom and democracy. Amazing.
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Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓
Matthew Petti 👨‍🎓@matthew_petti·
> Trump told Iranians that “help is on the way.” Then he bombed Iran (making their lives worse) ok but Holly you spent months and even years promoting Iranian voices that said “help” meant bombing
Holly Dagres@hdagres

Trump told Iranians that “help is on the way.” Then he bombed Iran (making their lives worse), made a deal with a regime that massacred thousands, cut funding for rights and internet freedom groups, and deported asylum seekers. In my @MSNOWNews piece, I ask whether the US supports the Iranian people at all. ms.now/opinion/trump-…

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@Seamus_Malek Unfortunately they sent Kushner and Witcoff to negotiate this, who thought enrichment is when you add an extra tablespoon of butter.
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Séamus Malekafzali
Séamus Malekafzali@Seamus_Malek·
This is literally the same concession Iran had reached in negotiations mediated by Oman a day before the war began. Nearly 3,500 Iranians were killed in pursuit of the exact same position on nuclear enrichment as before.
Acyn@Acyn

Hannity: They’re agreeing never to enrich? Vance: They are agreeing right now to eliminate the enriched stockpile…a lot of the technical details we will figure out over the next month, over the next two months

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@websterkaroon People are very quick to hand them an economic win that hasn't happened yet. I hope for sanction relief and development that improves the lives of Iranians, but without that it's hard to see how this fixes the problems that have existed before the war.
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Alireza Talakoubnejad
Alireza Talakoubnejad@websterkaroon·
Evidently not drinking the Kool Aid and saying "we need time to judge the results" makes you a liberal Iranian diaspora and committed to a vision of the ultimate necessity of submission. When you don't live in Iran and have 0 actual connection to Iran in your life you have 0 skin in the game and can live in fantasy land.
Micheál@Nameless_Weevil

We're going to be a reading a lot of Western and liberal Iranian diaspora takes like this. Iran convincingly won the Ramadan war but these people are so committed to a vision of the ultimate necessity of submission to Western economic and military coercion they can't accept it.

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Tim Smith
Tim Smith@2401timSmith·
@JakeLandauTO So this means they're gonna bring back supervised injection sites right???
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🥚
🥚@M3diaenjoyer·
@2401timSmith @WwwLukethoughts @brndxix Season 1 of the office literally had an entire episode that was just based on racist and sexist stereotypes like that was the entire joke of the episode the show definitely mellowed out but szn 1 would be much much different
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