Kevin Brown

THREAD: Grok's Unfair Advantage - Why Community Notes+++ Could Be the Killer Feature 🧵 1/12 I just had an AI make a confident, well-reasoned claim about tax law that was completely wrong. This isn't rare—it's the fundamental challenge with LLMs. But @xAI has access to something no other AI company has: a solution that already exists.

Woofda; from a long-time consumer of Japers' Rink content, a thank you for all the years (and years) of great content, discussion, and just all around Capitals information. I don't remember when it was but when Rob actually "won" a hockey related discussion with you and he celebrated with a Napoleon Dynamite meme, to this day I LOL thinking about it. It wasn't just the community, but the great content, every.single.day, truly amazing work by you and your team. Many thanks, Kevin

@georgerlewis Truly exceptional analysis, rigor, and presentation, great work George, thanks for taking the time to work through this.

Hearing a lot about Consensus Big Boards, so I decided to make one. Here is the Nats system ranked by consensus, with a link below to my Substack explaining the methodology.

@salmaogs Was entering trades too early in the session, so I codified the buy/sell buttons (I built my own options and futures trading system) to only become available after 10:15 Eastern.

What’s one habit you KNOW is hurting your trading but you still do it? Be honest

@georgerlewis Maybe it's operator error, but when I click on the "...thinking about in 2026...." link, i get last years Willits tweet, but nothing about 2026?

The MLB draft is 3 months from this weekend and I am dipping my toes into thinking about it. Last season, I guessed Willits about 2 months before the draft in the tweet I'm quoting. Here's a thread of what I'm thinking about in 2026: x.com/georgerlewis/s…

@strovillier I saw another tweet that said the Rangers had a bigger line back in '12-'13; Boyle, Rupp, Scott. I had to look up Rupp, but remember Boyle and of course Scott being very big. Anyway, hope that helps.....

can someone confirm for me that the wilprotai line is actually the largest line in nhl history and thats not just for a headline

@georgerlewis I would think they'd have some sort of rationale? I (quickly) looked up Pallante's splits here: mlb.com/player/andre-p… and they look fairly consistent between lefties and righties (for 2025). Any idea what their (Nats) rationale might be, I'd be curious of your thoughts.

In fact, the Nats got it right last July! We made a big deal about it because it was right after Rizzo and Martinez were let go. I've been excited by the forward thinking stuff they've been doing recently that I assumed they'd do this one as well. x.com/spencernusbaum…

I’ll be honest — I’m disappointed in this lineup design. This is their typical lineup vs RHP. Pallante is not a typical RHP. He has reverse splits. Similar to Mitchell Parker, his high arm angle (58°) creates pitch shapes that are difficult for lefties, not righties.

@georgerlewis Trying to understand the numbers. When behind in count, he swings at 60% of the pitches that were strikes? And then he chases balls out of the zone 45.5% when behind in the count? To your point, he's ~league average when ahead in the count?

Something I’m watching: Wood’s dependent swing rates. In-Zone 0-0: 41.7% (Lg avg: 44.0%) Behind: 60% (80.1%) Ahead: 65.4% (64.7%) Chase 0-0: 5.9% (17.2%) Behind: 45.5% (35.5%) Ahead: 29.6% (29.6%) My breathtaking analysis: Wood is swinging at the wrong pitches when behind.

@georgerlewis Nice article, informative, researched and well written, thanks.

Published to Substack my takeaways from Opening Day. I talked about pitch mixes, the lineup and bullpen usage, James Wood, and a CJ Abrams/Jayden Daniels parallel. I had fun yesterday. Excited for Saturday. Here’s the link: georgerlewis.substack.com/p/4-things-tha…

@spencernusbaum_ Couldn't watch the Nats on Fios in Manassas, VA. Have Fios Extreme package, had MASN(2) last year. Talked to Verizon and was told I need Fios Ultimate Extreme package to get Nats games. Would love your help in getting some clarity. Thanks.

One more bat signal here: If you're a Nationals fan who had trouble watching the game today, reply to this and make sure you're following me, and I'll try to get to you via DMs. Want to make sure I've got all your perspectives on what went awry. Seems to be a lot of issues.

@NoVA_Campaigns @DelDanHelmer @USArmyReserve @WestPoint_USMA Shouldn't detract from your message, but *O5.

This moron @DelDanHelmer is a current Lt Col (O6) in the @USArmyReserve and former Professor at @WestPoint_USMA

@RyanShenker What are a couple (if any) mechanical or mental changes the coaches are teaching w.r.t. hitting. Thanks!

Good morning, #Nationals fans! As I get ready to head over to workouts this morning, I just wanted to ask you guys if there are any player-related questions I can try to answer for you today.

@JeffJankovich @sammisilber @TheHockeyNews You mean from MacKinnon, Cooper and Hagel, whom the article quoted? That's an odd take you offered, or did I miss the punchline?

@sammisilber @TheHockeyNews Ridiculous take

"A hell of a hockey player." "It takes a special person to do that." "He's a leader on this team." Team Canada reacts to Tom Wilson's Gordie Howe hat rick and willingness to stick up for his teammates following their win over France: thehockeynews.com/nhl/washington…

Yep, concur. I've been (trying to) build a options trading system - algorithm not chart centric (even though the chart is prominent in the UX, the lower panels expand downwards), about 3 weeks into development now. Opus is the "CHENG", Grok chimes in from time to time, I'm the PM, and Claude Code does the coding. Python, TypeScript, React, etc., the software weighs in at about 180K SLOC in total right now. It's coming along; several modes, market regime detection, strategies, backtesting, replay, Schwab API for quotes, Polygon data for backtesting, etc. FWIW, here's the "Paper Trading" UX (note: market regime and strategies are in flux right now)

The barrier to entry for building institutional-grade market surveillance tools has collapsed to some extent, and even if the quant rags will say it is marginal, there is money in that margin. If you’re a solo operator not utilizing Claude, you are leaving money on the table. Whether that is to script indicators, parse complex data, or just do some of your more menial lifting, you're at a disadvantage. Also, if you build something that gives you an edge, and you just give it away, that is another conversation, you are simply dumb.

@alps201 @quantscience_ Polygon.io (now massive.com) has historical options data, 3 or 4 plan tiers to choose from.

@quantscience_ No historical options data? Sad

12 Python libraries for free market data everyone should know:

@BaileyAJohnson_ Learned something new today, I thought Tarik traveled with the team to road games. Anyway, keep producing great content and you won't have to keep qualifying your information (hopefully). Go Caps.

At their skate, the Caps’ forward lines were: McMichael-Strome-Leonard Protas-Sourdif-Wilson Ovechkin-Dowd-Frank Duhaime-Lapierre-Beauvillier I was (and always am) the only Caps writer there, since it’s a road game. Anyone else sharing these lines isn’t crediting the reporter.

12/12 @xAI @grok - if this isn't already on the roadmap, it should be. The blueprint is simple: Community Notes for Grok outputs Real-time Note integration in chat Feedback loop for model improvement Community Notes+++. Let's make it happen. —End thread—

11/12 This isn't theoretical. The infrastructure exists. The community exists. The consensus mechanism works. It's the single highest-leverage move xAI could make for "maximum truth-seeking." And it's an advantage literally no competitor can replicate.

THREAD: Grok's Unfair Advantage - Why Community Notes+++ Could Be the Killer Feature 🧵 1/12 I just had an AI make a confident, well-reasoned claim about tax law that was completely wrong. This isn't rare—it's the fundamental challenge with LLMs. But @xAI has access to something no other AI company has: a solution that already exists.