Paradis Labs Precise Market Analysis

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@ParadisLabs My strategy plan. 👇

> $TSM increase CoWoS ASP to ~$10,000 $TSM's CoWoS is one of the most constrained resources in the global AI supply chain. Quick TLDR on potential supply chain impacts: > OSATs - $TSM are outsourcing CoW steps to relieve pressure Estimates are that $TSM will hand off 240k-270k wafers annually in this yr to OSATs ( $TSM explicitly prefers neutral OSATs over letting orders go to Samsung) $ASE + $AMKR are the primary winners. Advanced packaging rev expected to 2x this yr, w/ $ASE guiding 5-20% price increases. Combined CoWoS-like capacity from ASE/Amkor hits ~40k wafers/month. $NVDA has already allocated ~80k CoWoS-equivalent wafers to $ASE + $AMKR in 2026 (mostly for Vera & some GPU overflow). $GOOGL TPU work also flows heavily through the $TSM / $AMKR partnership. Pure OSATs have lower overhead + faster “CoWoS-like” ramps for $TSM overflow. $TSM's own capacity can't scale fast enough for all hyperscaler ASICs. In terms of rev impact: - $ASE: Adv packaging + testing rev is guiding ~60% growth in 2026 (to ~$2.6B). That’s a ~$1B incremental lift - a very big number for an OSAT. - $AMKR - Q1 2026 already showed a 27% rev surge driven by adv packaging. Mgmt guiding 2026 capex at $3B (massive jump from 2025 levels), w/ 70% going to adv. packaging expansion (for $INTC + $TSM work). > Advanced packaging equipment - multi-yr positive impacts $TSM 80% capacity growth + OSAT spillover = explosive tool demand. - $AMAT - deposition/etch/CMP for RDL & interposers - $LRCX - etch & shape management for large packages - Tokyo Electron - bonders, coaters, thermal - ASMPT - TCB leader - $BESI - hybrid bonding - $ONTO / $CAMT - inspection - SUSS MicroTec - temporary bond/debond - Disco - precision processing for HBM - Advantest & $TER - dominate CPO/SoIC test w/ partnerships with $FORM /Quantifi) Packaging tools have shorter lead times & lower ASPs than EUV, but higher attach rates per wafer. CPO ramp ( $TSM COUPE) adds optical test complexity. These are high margin plays w/ visibility into 2027+. Equipment suppliers were the obvious beneficiaries of the 2025-2026 ramp. But new data confirms order momentum. And test names gain extra from CPO qualification bottlenecks.

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@ParadisLabs My investment strategy ⬇️

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