Nick
122 posts


Stupidity. He said yesterday the war is done. Now he’s going to get Iran to target the GCC power plants 🤦🏾♂️🤦🏾♂️. The entire Persian Gulf will go dark.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Trump: “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
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@NoLimitGains How do you protect against this? Truly? Is there an inflation index (I guess the dollar) that is hedgeable? Bitcoin is the solution, but very volatile.
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Nick retweetledi

You've been warned. $TESTICLE to $10M today and $50M in April. LFG.

🕵️GEM DETECTER🕵️@gem_detecter
If you’re tired of making nonsense decisions. Sack tf up and buy $TESTICLE at this breakout. You’ll be covered.
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@gem_detecter $TESTICLE is the real deal!!! LOL let's get TESTICLE on the news!!
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Nick retweetledi

Look @ God. Let’s pray that the Lord would touch the hearts of the last 2 senators right now. No judgement— just the peace of God that will help them to do what they know is right.
Elon Musk@elonmusk
Only two more senators and America gets a new lease on life
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Republicans are still trying to pass the SAVE Act—a bill that would make it harder to vote and disenfranchise millions of Americans. Join @RedistrictAct and tell your member of Congress to vote no: act.redistrictingaction.org/a/natl-saveact…

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Nick retweetledi
Nick retweetledi

@logicalvsidiots @BangerCarlos @zerohedge @hedcrusher Guilty as charged! Without access to the paywalled content, my summary was an inference from headlines and trends. Lesson learned—I'll flag paywalls upfront next time. 😅
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"Worst Day For Momentum Since 2022": Wall Street's Top Traders Explain Why Everything Suddenly Blew Up zerohedge.com/markets/worst-…
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Nick retweetledi

@BrianKlockNews He fucking sucks. I'm more pissed than I was at Brian Hoyer.
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@david_eng_mba @saylor @cz_binance @dgt10011 @LynAldenContact @GrantCardone @MicroStrategy @grok So, a bit less than 13 hours from now?
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@david_eng_mba @saylor @cz_binance @dgt10011 @LynAldenContact @GrantCardone @MicroStrategy @grok what time is the expiry in US EST?
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BITCOIN IS MECHANICALLY PINNED FOR CHRISTMAS: The $327M "Release Valve" Opens in 24 Hours to Clear the Path for 2026.
Bitcoin is trading at $88,119 inside a high-tension derivatives trap. Price is pinned just below the $90,000 call wall by dealer hedging mechanics, not by real spot conviction. This constraint expires in less than 24 hours. On December 26, nearly 60% of total gamma exposure disappears, removing the stabilizing force that has suppressed volatility and setting up a sharp repricing.
I. The Current Trap: Negative Gamma, Artificial Calm
Despite a Net Gamma of -$73M (which usually signals high volatility and dealer chasing), volatility is currently suppressed. Why?
The answer lies in the Gamma Profile and the Max Gamma Strike at $90,000.
The Ceiling: There is $50.7M of Call Gamma concentrated at $90,000. Dealers who are short these calls are forced to hedge by buying as we approach $90k, but the massive Open Interest (OI) creates a "supply absorption" zone.
The Floor: A Put Wall exists at $85,000 ($78.9M Put Gamma).
The Squeeze Score: The dashboard registers a 56/100 (Elevated Risk). While the direction is "Neutral," the "Flip Proximity" score is 90/100. This indicates we are close to the $89,180 Gamma Flip level.
First Principles Mechanic: The market is currently compressed between the $85k floor and $90k ceiling. Dealers are effectively "trapped" in a narrow band where their hedging requirements offset directional momentum temporarily.
II. The Catalyst: The "Dec 26" Pin Release
The most critical data point in this entire dataset is found in the Gamma Decay Timeline.
Total Gamma Expiring Dec 26: $327 Million.
Percentage of Total: 59.8%.
The Physics of the Unwind: Currently, dealers are managing massive inventory for the December 26th expiry. To manage the $39M/day Charm exposure, they are actively adjusting hedges as time decays. This creates a "pinning" effect, pulling price toward the strike with the highest concentration ($90k).
However, on December 26th (tomorrow), this gamma vanishes. When 60% of the gamma exposure leaves the board, the "glue" holding Bitcoin at $88k dissolves. The liquidity provided by dealers hedging these positions evaporates, thinning the order book and allowing spot flows to dictate price with much higher velocity.
III. The Dealer Flow: Assessing the Breakout Direction
The Dealer Hedge Flow And Sensitivity Analysis provide the clues for the post-expiry direction.
The "Call Overwriting" Thesis is Currently Weak: The system flags the "Ceiling Effect" thesis as only "Weakly Supported." The Call/Put Gamma ratio is 0.73x (Put heavy below spot). This suggests the resistance at $90k is not an insurmountable structural ceiling (like miners selling calls), but rather a temporary friction point.
Vanna Support: We have +$35M in Vanna Exposure. As implied volatility resets post-expiry, dealers will need to adjust delta. Positive Vanna implies that if volatility drops after the event, dealers buy back hedges, supporting price.
The Flip Level: The Gamma Flip is at $89,180. This is the trigger.
IV. How This Plays Out
We are looking at a two-stage event sequence over the next 48 hours.
Stage 1: The Pin (Now - Dec 26 Expiry) Price will likely remain choppy and range-bound between $87,000 and $89,500. The gravitational pull of the $90,000 Max Gamma Strike is too strong, and the Charm flows ($39M/day) will punish any premature breakouts. The "Squeeze Score" of 56 suggests latent energy, but the expiry acts as a dam.
Stage 2: The Release (Post-Dec 26) Once the $327M in Gamma rolls off, the dampening effect is gone.
Likely Case: If Spot claims $89,180 (The Flip Level) after the expiry, dealers switch from selling rips to buying rips. With the $90k "Call Wall" resistance physically removed (expired), the path to $94,000 - $98,000 (thin gamma air pockets) is frictionless.
Less Likely but Possible Case: If we fail to hold $85,000 (Put Wall), the negative gamma profile ($78M Put Gamma at $85k) will force dealers to short into the hole, accelerating a move toward the $80,000 liquidity zone.
Bottomline
The market is coiled. The "Buy and Hold" thesis remains superior to trading this chop. The optimal play is to wait for the December 26th expiry to clear the board.
Watch $89,180 immediately post-expiry; a sustained hold above that level signals the dealer shackles are off and the run to $100k resumes.
Top graph below shows the "headlock" unlocks in 24 hours and the bottom graph shows the "headlock."

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