Nick

122 posts

Nick

Nick

@5PatrickBateman

Katılım Aralık 2016
72 Takip Edilen21 Takipçiler
Nick
Nick@5PatrickBateman·
@Faazzla Shut up, you're an idiot
English
1
0
0
9
Nick
Nick@5PatrickBateman·
@NoLimitGains How do you protect against this? Truly? Is there an inflation index (I guess the dollar) that is hedgeable? Bitcoin is the solution, but very volatile.
English
1
0
2
96
NoLimit
NoLimit@NoLimitGains·
If you invested in the S&P 500 in 2000 and held it until 2013, you broke even. 13 years, no profit, and you lost 50% to inflation. Think about it for a second.
English
673
550
12.8K
2.2M
Phantom
Phantom@phantom·
@moonpay is this an announcement of an announcement?
English
12
2
60
4.6K
Nick
Nick@5PatrickBateman·
@anglio I know this as a fact. Also, it's a max testosterone play $TESTICLE
English
0
0
2
194
Anglio
Anglio@anglio·
$TESTICLE will do really good just because of who the top holders are To my knowledge everyone that holds it will not paper or dump on you even if they get 10x These guys will wait for 20-30x minimum Having diamond hand top holders does wonders for memecoins
English
59
29
197
24.8K
Nick
Nick@5PatrickBateman·
@gem_detecter $TESTICLE is the real deal!!! LOL let's get TESTICLE on the news!!
English
0
0
2
37
Nick
Nick@5PatrickBateman·
Mein Struggles with AI. @elonmusk, DM me if you seek low carbon power supply (for data centers etc) in the US.
Nick tweet media
English
0
0
0
3
Nick retweetledi
Clandestine
Clandestine@WarClandestine·
Trump lays out the gameplan to save the Republic. Voter-ID, proof of citizenship, no mass mail-in ballots. If we pass this legislation, the Dems will face extinction and the radical Left takeover will be neutralized. We must win here and now, or it’s over.
Clandestine tweet media
English
250
2.9K
9.2K
67.4K
Nick retweetledi
Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
To be clear, I think we should only waive the filibuster to pass an election integrity act into law, but not for any other reason. Election integrity must include visual ID that proves citizenship and in-person voting (except in extreme circumstances like troops overseas).
English
7.6K
20.7K
149.4K
32.3M
Christian Park
Christian Park@christianp_05·
CJ Stroud if you lose us this game it’s over.
English
1
0
0
175
Nick
Nick@5PatrickBateman·
@BrianKlockNews He fucking sucks. I'm more pissed than I was at Brian Hoyer.
English
0
0
1
10
Brian Klock
Brian Klock@BrianKlockNews·
CJ Stroud is playing like ass and he hasn’t been good. It’s very concerning from these two playoff games so far.
English
1
0
1
132
Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
BREAKING: Iran vows to attack U.S. military bases and Israel if protestors are defended by the U.S.
English
260
118
1.1K
225K
Taya
Taya@travelingflying·
In case you missed it: The Smithsonian Museum put out a list of bad White people traits. Those included hard work, objectivity, politeness, and having both a dad & mom leading a family.
Taya tweet mediaTaya tweet media
English
2.4K
8.7K
32.4K
1.7M
David
David@david_eng_mba·
BITCOIN IS MECHANICALLY PINNED FOR CHRISTMAS: The $327M "Release Valve" Opens in 24 Hours to Clear the Path for 2026. Bitcoin is trading at $88,119 inside a high-tension derivatives trap. Price is pinned just below the $90,000 call wall by dealer hedging mechanics, not by real spot conviction. This constraint expires in less than 24 hours. On December 26, nearly 60% of total gamma exposure disappears, removing the stabilizing force that has suppressed volatility and setting up a sharp repricing. I. The Current Trap: Negative Gamma, Artificial Calm Despite a Net Gamma of -$73M (which usually signals high volatility and dealer chasing), volatility is currently suppressed. Why? The answer lies in the Gamma Profile and the Max Gamma Strike at $90,000. The Ceiling: There is $50.7M of Call Gamma concentrated at $90,000. Dealers who are short these calls are forced to hedge by buying as we approach $90k, but the massive Open Interest (OI) creates a "supply absorption" zone. The Floor: A Put Wall exists at $85,000 ($78.9M Put Gamma). The Squeeze Score: The dashboard registers a 56/100 (Elevated Risk). While the direction is "Neutral," the "Flip Proximity" score is 90/100. This indicates we are close to the $89,180 Gamma Flip level. First Principles Mechanic: The market is currently compressed between the $85k floor and $90k ceiling. Dealers are effectively "trapped" in a narrow band where their hedging requirements offset directional momentum temporarily. II. The Catalyst: The "Dec 26" Pin Release The most critical data point in this entire dataset is found in the Gamma Decay Timeline. Total Gamma Expiring Dec 26: $327 Million. Percentage of Total: 59.8%. The Physics of the Unwind: Currently, dealers are managing massive inventory for the December 26th expiry. To manage the $39M/day Charm exposure, they are actively adjusting hedges as time decays. This creates a "pinning" effect, pulling price toward the strike with the highest concentration ($90k). However, on December 26th (tomorrow), this gamma vanishes. When 60% of the gamma exposure leaves the board, the "glue" holding Bitcoin at $88k dissolves. The liquidity provided by dealers hedging these positions evaporates, thinning the order book and allowing spot flows to dictate price with much higher velocity. III. The Dealer Flow: Assessing the Breakout Direction The Dealer Hedge Flow And Sensitivity Analysis provide the clues for the post-expiry direction. The "Call Overwriting" Thesis is Currently Weak: The system flags the "Ceiling Effect" thesis as only "Weakly Supported." The Call/Put Gamma ratio is 0.73x (Put heavy below spot). This suggests the resistance at $90k is not an insurmountable structural ceiling (like miners selling calls), but rather a temporary friction point. Vanna Support: We have +$35M in Vanna Exposure. As implied volatility resets post-expiry, dealers will need to adjust delta. Positive Vanna implies that if volatility drops after the event, dealers buy back hedges, supporting price. The Flip Level: The Gamma Flip is at $89,180. This is the trigger. IV. How This Plays Out We are looking at a two-stage event sequence over the next 48 hours. Stage 1: The Pin (Now - Dec 26 Expiry) Price will likely remain choppy and range-bound between $87,000 and $89,500. The gravitational pull of the $90,000 Max Gamma Strike is too strong, and the Charm flows ($39M/day) will punish any premature breakouts. The "Squeeze Score" of 56 suggests latent energy, but the expiry acts as a dam. Stage 2: The Release (Post-Dec 26) Once the $327M in Gamma rolls off, the dampening effect is gone. Likely Case: If Spot claims $89,180 (The Flip Level) after the expiry, dealers switch from selling rips to buying rips. With the $90k "Call Wall" resistance physically removed (expired), the path to $94,000 - $98,000 (thin gamma air pockets) is frictionless. Less Likely but Possible Case: If we fail to hold $85,000 (Put Wall), the negative gamma profile ($78M Put Gamma at $85k) will force dealers to short into the hole, accelerating a move toward the $80,000 liquidity zone. Bottomline The market is coiled. The "Buy and Hold" thesis remains superior to trading this chop. The optimal play is to wait for the December 26th expiry to clear the board. Watch $89,180 immediately post-expiry; a sustained hold above that level signals the dealer shackles are off and the run to $100k resumes. Top graph below shows the "headlock" unlocks in 24 hours and the bottom graph shows the "headlock."
David tweet media
English
87
95
654
57.1K