JJJ

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JJJ

JJJ

@9999_9n

digital version of JJJ

World Katılım Ekim 2015
86 Takip Edilen53 Takipçiler
JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
不要掉队。
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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
只是被在意过后的余下的阵痛,竟然要我消化整整2个月,并且目前还看不到尽头
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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
人类所有的痛苦来自不能够安静地独处。
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AB Kuai.Dong
AB Kuai.Dong@_FORAB·
币圈裁员潮,还是到来了。北美头部加密交易所 Coinbase,宣布因行业下行、AI 效率提升,裁员 14%。 被裁的员工,享受 N+4 赔偿待遇。该公司负责人表示,这场转折点不光 Coinbase,而是每家公司都正在面临,因此必须采取行动。 这似乎是今年我知道的第五家,一次性裁员 10% 以上的加密交易所了。
AB Kuai.Dong tweet media
Brian Armstrong@brian_armstrong

This is an email I sent earlier today to all employees at Coinbase: Team, Today I’ve made the difficult decision to reduce the size of Coinbase by ~14%. I want to walk you through why we're doing this now, what it means for those affected, and how this positions us for the future. Why now Two forces are converging at the same time. We need to be front footed to respond to both. First, the market. Coinbase is well-capitalized, has diversified revenue streams, and is well-positioned to weather any storm. Crypto is also on the verge of the next wave of adoption, with stablecoins, prediction markets, tokenization, and more taking off. However, our business is still volatile from quarter to quarter. While we've managed through that cyclicality many times before and come out stronger on the other side, we’re currently in a down market and need to adjust our cost structure now so that we emerge from this period leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth. Second, AI is changing how we work. Over the past year, I’ve watched engineers use AI to ship in days what used to take a team weeks. Non-technical teams are now shipping production code and many of our workflows are being automated. The pace of what's possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically, and it's accelerating every day. All of this has led us to an inflection point, not just for Coinbase, but for every company. The biggest risk now is not taking action. We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native. We need to return to the speed and focus of our startup founding, with AI at our core. What this means To get there, we are not just reducing headcount and cutting costs, we’re fundamentally changing how we operate: rebuilding Coinbase as an intelligence, with humans around the edge aligning it. What does this mean in practice? - Fewer layers, faster decisions: We are flattening our org structure to 5 layers max below CEO/COO. Layers slow things down and create coordination tax. The future is small, high context teams that can move quickly. Leaders will own much more, with as many as 15+ direct reports. Fewer layers also means a leaner cost structure that is built to perform through all market cycles. - No pure managers: Every leader at Coinbase must also be a strong and active individual contributor. Managers should be like player-coaches, getting their hands dirty alongside their teams. - AI-native pods: We’ll be concentrating around AI-native talent who can manage fleets of agents to drive outsized impact. We’ll also be experimenting with reduced pod sizes, including “one person teams” with engineers, designers, and product managers all in one role. In short: AI is bringing a profound shift in how companies operate, and we’re reshaping Coinbase to lead in this new era. This is a new way of working, and we need to leverage AI across every facet of our jobs. To those who are affected I know there are real people behind these decisions — talented colleagues who have poured themselves into this company and our mission. To those of you who will be leaving: thank you. You’ve helped build Coinbase into what it is today, and I am sincerely grateful for everything you've done. All impacted team members will receive an email to their personal account in the next hour with more information, and an invitation to meet with an HRBP and a senior leader in your organization. Coinbase system access has been removed today. I know this feels sudden and harsh, but it is the only responsible choice given our duty to protect customer information. To those affected, we will be providing a comprehensive package to support you through this transition. US employees will receive a minimum of 16 weeks base pay (plus 2 weeks per year worked), their next equity vest, and 6 months of COBRA. Employees on a work visa will get extra transition support. Those outside of the US will receive similar support, based on local factors and subject to any consultation requirements. Coinbase prides itself on talent density. Our employees are among the most talented people in the world, and I have no doubt that your skills and experience will be highly sought after as you pursue your next chapters. How we move forward To the team that is staying, I know this is a difficult day. We’re saying goodbye to colleagues and friends you've been in the trenches with. But here’s what I want you to know as we move forward together: Over the past 13 years, we have weathered four crypto winters, gone public, and built the most trusted platform in our industry. We’ve made it this far by making hard decisions and by always staying focused on our mission. This time will be no different – nothing has changed about the long term outlook of our company or industry. And most importantly, our mission has never been more important for the world. Increasing economic freedom requires a new financial system, and we’re building it. The Coinbase that emerges from this will be more capable than ever to achieve our mission. Brian

Meguro-ku, Tokyo 🇯🇵 中文
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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
本杰明·格雷厄姆坚持认为“安全性必须基于研究和标准”,价值“只能由资产、收益、股息、明确的前景等事实来证明,它区别于人为操纵和心理上的过度反应所扭曲的市场报价”。
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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
lmao
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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
good summary
Finsee@Finsee_main

$TDW Q1 2026 earnings: Top-Line Contraction and Middle East Squeeze Expose Near-Term Vulnerabilities Despite management declaring Q1 'exceeded expectations,' the numbers paint a more sobering picture. Tidewater experienced a Reversing trend in revenue, declining 2.2% YoY, marking a break from its multi-year growth narrative. While day rates proved surprisingly resilient and even ticked up sequentially to $22,283, the bottom line deteriorated rapidly. Net Income collapsed to $6.1M from $42.7M a year ago, driven heavily by an Operation Epic Fury-induced margin squeeze in the Middle East and a 19% sales plunge in West Africa. Management is banking heavily on a back-half recovery and the impending Wilson Sons Ultratug integration to hit their reiterated FY26 guidance. For now, the promised offshore upcycle is facing stiff macro headwinds. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 — Historically, Q1 is the most challenging seasonal quarter. Yet, Tidewater grew its average day rate by nearly $240 sequentially. Term contract fixtures reached an inflection point, pushing the weighted average up for the first time in a year. • 𝐌&𝐀 𝐂𝐚𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐦𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐧𝐭 — The acquisition of the 22-vessel Wilson Sons Ultratug fleet is scheduled to close in Q2, exclusively targeting the high-demand Brazilian PSV market and providing an immediate top-line injection. 🐻 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 — Operating Cash Flow fell off a cliff, dropping 76% YoY from $80.4M to just $19.2M, driven by massive working capital drains and elevated deferred drydocking and survey costs. • 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐃𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 — West Africa, historically a massive profit engine for Tidewater, is Decelerating rapidly. Vessel revenues dropped 19% YoY, and segment operating profit plummeted nearly 28%. ⚖️ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭: ⚪ Neutral. The long-term structural deficit of OSV vessels remains intact, but near-term execution is rocky. Investors are paying upcycle multiples, yet Tidewater is currently delivering contracting revenues and compressed free cash flow. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 🔴 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐭 𝐒𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 [NEW] Operation Epic Fury has materially altered unit economics in the Middle East. While regional vessel revenues grew 5% YoY to $45.6M, operating profit actually reversed, dropping 23% YoY to $6.6M. Management cited elevated insurance and crew costs, explicitly warning this pressure will persist until the conflict resolves. This highlights the vulnerability of the operating model to localized geopolitical friction. 🔴 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐫 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞 West Africa is Decelerating at an alarming rate. It was Tidewater's largest revenue contributor a year ago ($106.1M, 32% of total). Today, it generated only $85.8M (27% of total), trailing Europe/Med. The active vessel count in the region dropped from 65 to 53 YoY, driving utilization down from 75% to 85.5% (on a smaller base). This structural shrinkage requires immediate redeployment strategies. 🔴 𝐓𝐡𝐞 '𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬' 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 [NEW] CEO Quintin Kneen stated the quarter 'exceeded our expectations across all key financial and operational measures.' However, hard data contradicts this rosy narrative. Operating Cash Flow reversed from $80.4M in 25Q1 to $19.2M in 26Q1. Accounts payable dropped while deferred drydocking cash outlays consumed $36.4M. Cash burn is real, making the 'outperformance' claim suspect when looking at the balance sheet. 🟢 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐞𝐳𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡 𝐒𝐞𝐚 𝐀𝐇𝐓𝐒 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 A key technological and asset-class driver emerged in high-spec AHTS (Anchor Handling Towing Supply) vessels. The North Sea market tightened earlier than normal due to rigs mobilizing for new projects and a hard cap on vessel supply. This specific asset class drove the sequential day rate improvement of ~$240/day across the fleet, proving that complex, high-spec assets command outsized pricing power when supply inelasticity bites. 🟢 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐔𝐥𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 [NEW] The acquisition of Wilson Sons Ultratug gives Tidewater 22 PSVs entirely locked into the Brazilian offshore market. With Petrobras aggressively tendering, this moves Tidewater deeper into a region characterized by long-term contracts and high demand density. Expected to close by Q2, this is the primary mechanical driver for achieving their FY26 revenue guidance. 🟢 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 𝐏𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞: 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐚𝐫-𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐒𝐨𝐟𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 Management laid out a clear macro thesis: the global energy equation is being fundamentally reshaped. Despite Middle East conflict friction, the drive for localized energy security and the imperative to replace depleted inventories is creating incremental, structural demand that overrides short-term day rate stagnation. They anticipate this will support commodity prices and sustain offshore activity well into 2027. 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐀𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞: $22,283 Stable YoY, but importantly, Accelerating sequentially from $22,044 in 25Q4. Achieving sequential day rate growth during Q1 (typically the industry's weakest seasonal quarter) validates the underlying tightness of the global vessel market, even as overall revenues slightly declined. 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰: $34.4 million Decelerating drastically from $94.7M in 25Q1 and $151.2M in 25Q4. The plunge was driven by working capital swings (a $14.3M build in receivables) and heavy cash outflows for deferred drydocking ($36.4M). This limits immediate dry powder for their $500M buyback program without tapping into reserves. 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: $1.43 to $1.48 billion Accelerating. The midpoint of $1.455B implies roughly 7.5% YoY growth compared to FY25's $1.35B. Given that 26Q1 revenue was negative YoY (-2.2%), hitting this guidance requires aggressive, back-half weighted growth, primarily fueled by the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition integration. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧: 49% to 51% Stable to slightly Accelerating. The midpoint of 50% compares favorably to Q1's actual vessel operating margin of 48.6%. To achieve this, Tidewater will need day rates to push higher to offset the newly elevated operating costs in the Middle East and inflationary pressures on crews. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐐𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐀𝐟𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Vessel revenues in West Africa declined 19% YoY. Is this a permanent structural downshift due to lack of drilling demand, or do you expect active vessel counts to rebound in the region during the second half of 2026? 𝐌𝐢𝐝𝐝𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 You explicitly noted higher costs for insurance and crews due to Operation Epic Fury. What is the exact quarterly dollar impact of these elevated costs, and are you able to build conflict-risk premiums into upcoming contract renewals to protect margins? 𝐁𝐮𝐲𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 𝐕𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝 𝐅𝐂𝐅 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 Operating Cash Flow was severely hampered this quarter by working capital and drydocking costs. Does this near-term cash flow reality push out the timeline for executing the $500M share repurchase authorization?

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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
对我来说,并不是牛市或者熊市的问题,而是什么时候兑现,以及注意防止被挤压出局的风险的问题
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JJJ
JJJ@9999_9n·
虽然变化是随着时间逐渐积累的,但对变化的意识往往会突然强烈起来。
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FinancialJuice
FinancialJuice@financialjuice·
Trump on Iran: Fuel prices will drop sharply once the conflict ends.
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Tommy Lee
Tommy Lee@TommyDeepwater·
$TDW 1Q26 Adj EBITDA of $129.3mm vs. $128.4mm consensus est 1Q26 cash flow was softer than usual on working capital timing. TDW flagged higher Mid East costs persisting through the conflict No buybacks but Wilson Sons acquisition is buying cash flows cheaper than its own stock. Positive commentary on market outlook
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seekinganythingbutalpha
seekinganythingbutalpha@ivanalog_com·
DS4的主要作用就是以差不多十分之一(目前促销价下)的价格提供OA两家70~80%的功能。 对没有公司报销,自付盈亏的个人开发者来说,这还是蛮有吸引力的。 何况目前的agent工具是针对OA两家特训的,如果DS支持稳定,价格不变,DS版特调的Code/Agent tool还有上升空间。 DS4是让跑的慢的AI公司归零
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🇨🇳潇潇(脑机接口版)@zuzuqaq

@ivanalog_com 没有8个月,DeepSeek V4 Pro目前落后顶级闭源模型一季度到半年,我记得是深度求索官方给出的结论报告

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