☆ Man on the Obelisk ☆

Any serious politician would do well to study the playbook of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. After investing years into building both party structure and electoral victories, most notably backing the rise and reelection of Muhammadu Buhari; he found himself in a paradox: the very system he helped strengthen grew distant, and at moments, even resistant to his own ambition in 2023. Within the All Progressives Congress, there were clear signs of hesitation, internal pushback, and shifting loyalties. But instead of walking away or fracturing the platform, he chose to stay the course. He leaned on years of political capital, relationships, and influence; calling in favors, consolidating alliances, and navigating internal battles that could have derailed a less seasoned operator. Where others might have retreated, he doubled down. He stood by the party he helped build, even when that loyalty wasn’t fully reciprocated. And in doing so, he demonstrated a core lesson in Nigerian politics: power isn’t just about popularity or momentum; it’s about endurance, structure, and the ability to outlast resistance within and beyond your own camp.

The intensified tempo of NAF airstrikes over the past month has thrown ISWAP camps into disarray. Dozens of sorties and precision strikes have significantly degraded the group’s operational capabilities. The strikes have been focused on destroying ISWAPs tactical units and logistical infrastructure. ISWAP tried to make a stand with several attacks to show that it could withstand Nigerian air power, but the NAF responded with more precision strikes, including targeted attacks on their bases around Lake Chad and the Mandara Mountains. This has been the most aggressive use of air power in recent months. Unable to withstand the sustained pressure, intelligence reports suggest the group is attempting to overhaul its command structure under directives from its central leadership linked to the ISIS network in Syria. Unfortunately for them a change in leadership will do little to alter the new tactical reality. ISWAP had enjoyed relatively free rein for some time largely because the NAF was operating at barely 30% capacity. Tactical assets remain limited, but the tempo and intensity of operations have now increased significantly. If ISWAP thinks it is struggling against just 12 Super Tucanos and 4 T-129 ATAK helicopters, they should brace for the arrival of two M-346FA fighter squadrons to reinforce the Super Tucanos, along with AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters to complement the T-129 ATAKs.