John🐍

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John🐍

John🐍

@ACD_Trader

Practitioner of the ACD methodology by Mark Fisher. Commodity Trading Advisor, 30 years trading, mostly options. No grifting. Nothing to sell.

Houston Katılım Ağustos 2009
997 Takip Edilen844 Takipçiler
Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
Jose freaking Altuve!
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
The Astros pitching is worse than I thought. They have given up 24 runs in 4 games. This is not what you want to see.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@michaelschwab13 And here I thought pitching was going to be our strength. If we are going to have to score 7 runs a game this we are cooked.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
Outside of Hunter, who didn’t allow a run, the rest of the rotation had not looked good at all to start the season. Hopefully it’s about shaking off some rust, but not the best starts.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@michaelschwab13 I haven’t seen an offense this potent since the 1936 Yankees of murderers row.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
The Astros needed this.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
Did Dana Brown even try this offseason?
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
This team may not win a game.
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Ice Box Insiders
Ice Box Insiders@iceboxinsiders·
What the lineup should look like today 👇 1. Pena SS 2. Altuve 2B 3. Yordan LF 4. Isaac DH 5. Correa 3B 6. Loperfido CF 7. Walker 1B 8. Cam RF 9. yainer C
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@michaelschwab13 I think we need to start smaller. How about we get more than 3 hits against the worst team in our division. Runs will be the next goal if the first goal is met.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
I dare the Astros to score runs tonight
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@michaelschwab13 161 more games of this. Is this what water torture feels like?
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
Shutout on Opening Day. That’s gross.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@michaelschwab13 Wait. What happened to, relax guys, it’s only spring training. This does t mean anything. I guess it did mean something after all.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
So... hitting may be a problem this year
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
Is it just me or this the most boring baseball game ever. Spring training had more excitement than this.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@michaelschwab13 Wow. A lot of people were betting heavily on Cole. But Brice deserved it for sure.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
Opening Roster news Brice Matthews has made the Opening Day roster, Zach Cole was optioned. Christian Roa and Christian Vazquez will make the roster after being added to the 40-man roster. Brandon Walter added to 60-day IL and Cesar Salazar DFA.
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
No Astros baseball today. Opening Day at Daikin TOMORROW. BOOK IT
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Michael Schwab
Michael Schwab@michaelschwab13·
Tatsuya Imai went 3.2 innings tonight against the Space Cowboys. He averaged close to 96 MPH on his fastball, getting 3 strikeouts and walking 1 with 2 hits. Biggest thing was he threw 79 pitches in almost 4 innings so would love to keep that pitch count down
Michael Schwab tweet media
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@johnarnold @RMBrenna To me, gambling is something that is defined as having a negative expectancy. All Casino games and lotteries fit this definition. Prediction markets are risk neutral bets. Player against player. One can conceivably have an edge or positive expectancy. Therefore it’s a market.
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John Arnold
John Arnold@johnarnold·
Let's talk about sports betting via prediction markets, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission started allowing last year. The CFTC was created to regulate derivatives contracts in commodities that provide price transparency and facilitate risk transfer. These markets include some level of customer hedging and some speculation. The latter is necessary to facilitate the former and (usually) improves price signals. Beyond traditional commodities like oil, wheat, and copper, the CFTC sanctions contracts on stock indices, currencies, and interest rates. More recently, they've expanded to other markets in which businesses face risk they may want to hedge against like weather, freight costs, and emissions. A new innovation comes from prediction markets, where one can buy and sell contracts based on the probability of a specific event happening in the future. This allows someone, at least in theory, to hedge events like election outcomes, geopolitics, and corporate earnings. Before 2025, the CFTC explicitly rejected sports contracts. But last year, the CFTC allowed Kalshi to self-certify contracts on sports betting by not intervening. Soon, the prediction sites were filled with not just questions about Iran but outright sports betting like whether Purdue will cover a 7 point line against Texas on Thursday. This isn't hedging. This isn't price transparency. This is just gambling. Sports betting should not be regulated by the CFTC, but by the states, where all gambling decisions have been made since the founding of this country. States have long made different decisions on gambling based on what is right for them. Nevada and Utah share a long border but have made very different decisions on gambling: Nevada has legalized most forms while Utah has done the opposite. Voters and policymakers in those respective states have made those decisions. The CFTC has explicitly violated states' rights by implicitly legalizing online sports gambling across all 50 states. While most states have chosen a minimum age of 21 for gambling, the CFTC has lowered that to 18. While states have commissions to set guardrails on consumer protections, marketing, and state taxes, the CFTC has none of that. We can have a fulsome debate about what gambling is allowed and for whom. Reasonable people can have different views on the answer. I don't know what is optimal, but I do know that debate is best done in states. There is too much heterogeneity across America to have a one size fits all law. Nevada should be able to make different decisions than Utah. I am pleased that a pair of bipartisan bills have been introduced in the House and Senate return authority to the states. Kudos to Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) and Reps. Moore (R-UT) and Carbajal (D-CA). Online sports betting is not hedging. It's not an investment. It is gambling and should be regulated as such.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@SanAntonioTim @brianmctaggart He has a good eye at the plate. He’s already is not swinging like a child on adderall like Diaz. If Diaz could at least play defense I wouldn’t care how many double plays he hits into with runners in scoring position.
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Brian McTaggart
Brian McTaggart@brianmctaggart·
Astros reassigned C Walker Janek and OF Lucas Spence to Minor League camp.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@dav_ray71 @brianmctaggart I’ll check back with you at the end of April after Diax is hitting .150 and is 2 for 20 throwing out baserunners.
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John🐍
John🐍@ACD_Trader·
@brianmctaggart @dav_ray71 True. Can Smith never played A ball either. It sucks we have two catchers who can’t hit off a tee.
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