John🐍
6.6K posts

John🐍
@ACD_Trader
Practitioner of the ACD methodology by Mark Fisher. Commodity Trading Advisor, 30 years trading, mostly options. No grifting. Nothing to sell.
Houston Katılım Ağustos 2009
997 Takip Edilen844 Takipçiler

@michaelschwab13 At least we have a non stoppable offense right? Right?
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@michaelschwab13 And here I thought pitching was going to be our strength. If we are going to have to score 7 runs a game this we are cooked.
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@michaelschwab13 I haven’t seen an offense this potent since the 1936 Yankees of murderers row.
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@michaelschwab13 Is the first week of the season too early to be sellers?
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@michaelschwab13 Look on the bright side. Not having Hader hasn’t hurt us yet.
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@michaelschwab13 I think we need to start smaller. How about we get more than 3 hits against the worst team in our division. Runs will be the next goal if the first goal is met.
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@michaelschwab13 161 more games of this. Is this what water torture feels like?
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@michaelschwab13 Wait. What happened to, relax guys, it’s only spring training. This does t mean anything. I guess it did mean something after all.
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@michaelschwab13 Wow. A lot of people were betting heavily on Cole. But Brice deserved it for sure.
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@michaelschwab13 Any other stats from last nights game? @michaelschwab13
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@johnarnold @RMBrenna If it’s a market, it should be regulated as such at the federal level.
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@johnarnold @RMBrenna To me, gambling is something that is defined as having a negative expectancy. All Casino games and lotteries fit this definition. Prediction markets are risk neutral bets. Player against player. One can conceivably have an edge or positive expectancy. Therefore it’s a market.
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Let's talk about sports betting via prediction markets, which the Commodity Futures Trading Commission started allowing last year.
The CFTC was created to regulate derivatives contracts in commodities that provide price transparency and facilitate risk transfer. These markets include some level of customer hedging and some speculation. The latter is necessary to facilitate the former and (usually) improves price signals.
Beyond traditional commodities like oil, wheat, and copper, the CFTC sanctions contracts on stock indices, currencies, and interest rates. More recently, they've expanded to other markets in which businesses face risk they may want to hedge against like weather, freight costs, and emissions.
A new innovation comes from prediction markets, where one can buy and sell contracts based on the probability of a specific event happening in the future. This allows someone, at least in theory, to hedge events like election outcomes, geopolitics, and corporate earnings.
Before 2025, the CFTC explicitly rejected sports contracts. But last year, the CFTC allowed Kalshi to self-certify contracts on sports betting by not intervening. Soon, the prediction sites were filled with not just questions about Iran but outright sports betting like whether Purdue will cover a 7 point line against Texas on Thursday.
This isn't hedging. This isn't price transparency. This is just gambling. Sports betting should not be regulated by the CFTC, but by the states, where all gambling decisions have been made since the founding of this country.
States have long made different decisions on gambling based on what is right for them. Nevada and Utah share a long border but have made very different decisions on gambling: Nevada has legalized most forms while Utah has done the opposite. Voters and policymakers in those respective states have made those decisions.
The CFTC has explicitly violated states' rights by implicitly legalizing online sports gambling across all 50 states. While most states have chosen a minimum age of 21 for gambling, the CFTC has lowered that to 18. While states have commissions to set guardrails on consumer protections, marketing, and state taxes, the CFTC has none of that.
We can have a fulsome debate about what gambling is allowed and for whom. Reasonable people can have different views on the answer. I don't know what is optimal, but I do know that debate is best done in states. There is too much heterogeneity across America to have a one size fits all law. Nevada should be able to make different decisions than Utah.
I am pleased that a pair of bipartisan bills have been introduced in the House and Senate return authority to the states. Kudos to Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) and Reps. Moore (R-UT) and Carbajal (D-CA). Online sports betting is not hedging. It's not an investment. It is gambling and should be regulated as such.
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@SanAntonioTim @brianmctaggart He has a good eye at the plate. He’s already is not swinging like a child on adderall like Diaz. If Diaz could at least play defense I wouldn’t care how many double plays he hits into with runners in scoring position.
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@ACD_Trader @brianmctaggart His minor league OPS is .711 never playing above A ball. What makes you think he can hit?
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@dav_ray71 @brianmctaggart I’ll check back with you at the end of April after Diax is hitting .150 and is 2 for 20 throwing out baserunners.
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@brianmctaggart @dav_ray71 True. Can Smith never played A ball either. It sucks we have two catchers who can’t hit off a tee.
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@dav_ray71 @ACD_Trader He’s never played above A ball. He was never going to make this team.
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