
Arborator Capital Research
92 posts

Arborator Capital Research
@AC__research
🌍 Global Small Caps 📈 Compounders & Special Situations 🔎 Deep Fundamental Research 🎯 Targeting 20%+ 🏆Early: $BE $MP $NBIS $ELS.AX $XTB.WA $EQR.AX $212A.T








🔥 The ultimate portfolio hedge against further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz? We think we’ve found it. A stock that could benefit enormously if oil prices spike further… while still offering substantial upside even if geopolitical tensions ease. Since the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz escalated, we’ve been asking ourselves one question: Is there a stock that benefits massively if oil spikes… but can still generate outstanding returns even if tensions fade? After weeks of research, we think we’ve found exactly that. In our view, it’s one of the most attractive macro hedges available today. If tensions escalate further, it could be among the biggest equity beneficiaries. If they don’t, we still believe the company is undervalued based on its own fundamentals. It’s currently our third-largest position, behind only FitEasy $212A.T and Smart Shooter $SMSH . (Other write ups are on Substack) Here’s why: • 🛢️ Virtually no oil hedging – almost every additional dollar of Brent flows directly into cash flow. • 💰 Net cash equal to roughly one-third of its market cap, with no debt. • 📈 Trading at roughly ~1× this year’s EBITDA (our estimates). • 💵 EV/FCF below 2× even assuming Brent prices slightly below current levels. • ⛽ Expected to generate cash over the next two years approaching today’s entire market capitalization. • 🚀 Several company-specific catalysts (independent of oil prices) that we believe could unlock 30–50%+ upside on their own. • 📊 Every analyst report we reviewed values the shares roughly 50–100% above the current price. The market has started to price in higher oil prices, but in our opinion it still hasn’t fully reflected either the improving company-specific outlook or just how much operating leverage this business has to elevated Brent prices. We published our full investment thesis, valuation model and scenario analysis today. The full write-up is available on our Substack link in below 👇

How to invest in #Anthropic before the IPO? Our favorite proxy remains $SKM (SK Telecom). The market still values SK Telecom primarily as a mature telecom operator. We believe that’s becoming increasingly outdated. Here’s why 👇 Anthropic is growing at an extraordinary pace. • Early 2026: ~$14B revenue run-rate • April 2026: ~$30B • May 2026: >$47B • Today, we estimate annualized recurring revenue is already approaching $50B. However, what makes the story particularly interesting is the pace of growth. If Anthropic continues executing anywhere close to its current trajectory, we believe recurring revenue could potentially approach $70–80B by the time of a public listing. Private AI leaders have consistently commanded premium valuation multiples, and public markets have often assigned even higher multiples to category-defining AI companies. If Anthropic enters the public markets with continued hypergrowth, we believe a 25–35x Price-to-Sales multiple is a reasonable upside scenario. That combination—$70–80B of recurring revenue together with a premium valuation multiple—could support an equity valuation approaching $2T over the next 6–12 months. Prediction markets such as Polymarket currently imply roughly a 45–50% probability that Anthropic reaches more than $1.8T after its IPO. SK Telecom invested $100M into Anthropic in 2023 and participated again in the latest financing round. Based on publicly available information, we estimate SK Telecom currently owns roughly 0.3% of Anthropic, implying a stake worth approximately $3B at today’s valuation. Even after accounting for potential future dilution, we estimate that stake could be worth around $5B if Anthropic eventually reaches a $2T valuation. The company also owns strategic stakes in Penguin Solutions $PENG , #Lambda and #Perplexity. Based on publicly available information, we estimate these investments are collectively worth at least ~$0.5B today, with Penguin Solutions representing the largest position. Taken together, we estimate to be roughly $3.5B of AI equity investments today. The telecom business itself is far from “legacy.” SK Telecom remains Korea’s largest wireless operator with: • ~50% mobile market share • ~23 million subscribers • exceptionally low churn • highly recurring cash flows • ~4% dividend yield At the same time, management is transforming the company into one of Korea’s key AI infrastructure providers through: • strategic partnership with $NVDA • NVIDIA DSX AI factories • hyperscale AI data centers • Project Glasswing with Anthropic • Aster AI, A-dot and enterprise AI products This is increasingly becoming an AI infrastructure company. Valuation Current Enterprise Value: ~$17B 2026E EBITDA: ~$3.5B Current multiple: • ~4.9x EV/EBITDA Conservative scenario • Anthropic stake: $3B • Other AI investments: $0.5B • Total AI portfolio: $3.5B • Adjusted EV: ~$13.5B • Adjusted EV/EBITDA: ~3.9x Assuming the operating business rerates to 5x EV/EBITDA, we estimate approximately 35–40% upside from today’s valuation over the next 6–12 months. Optimistic scenario • Anthropic stake: $5B • Other AI investments: $0.5B • Total AI portfolio: $5.5B • Adjusted EV: ~$11.5B • Adjusted EV/EBITDA: ~3.3x Assuming the operating business rerates to 7x EV/EBITDA, we estimate approximately 110–120% upside from today’s valuation over the next 6–12 months. These are naturally our own scenarios—not forecasts—but we believe the current valuation leaves a substantial margin of safety while providing meaningful upside if Anthropic continues executing. In our view, investors are getting: • a high-quality cash-generative telecom business, • one of Korea’s leading AI infrastructure platforms, • and one of the strongest publicly traded portfolios of private AI investments—including Anthropic, Penguin Solutions, Lambda and Perplexity. That combination makes $SKM one of the most interesting AI proxy investments we have found.

PART 1 — Why We Started Buying 3i Group: When one of Europe’s Highest-Quality Compounders Went on Sale 1/2 What if Europe’s best retailer has quietly compounded revenue at ~25% CAGR over the past decade, delivers industry-leading returns on capital, and still trades at roughly half the EV/EBITDA multiple of Costco despite growing several times faster? We break down why we believe 3i Group’s stake in Action could be one of the most attractive compounders in global public markets. Full write-up coming soon on Substack. Link in bio. Every now and then, the market gives investors an opportunity that doesn’t come from a deteriorating business, but from deteriorating sentiment. These are often our favorite situations. Not because they’re easy, but because they allow us to buy exceptional businesses at valuations that only appear during periods of maximum pessimism. Over the past few months, we believe 3i Group $III.L has become one of those opportunities. After reporting results that were, in our opinion, far from disastrous, the stock experienced one of its sharpest corrections in years. The market reacted to several concerns at once: •weaker-than-expected like-for-like sales in France, •some softness in Germany, •concerns that Action’s extraordinary growth may finally be slowing, •the announcement of a future expansion into the United States, •and, more recently, fears that rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could pressure European consumers. All of those headlines arrived almost simultaneously. The result? The share price fell from above £40 last year to nearly £19 at the lows. For us, that wasn’t a warning sign. It was an invitation to start buying. We gradually accumulated our position primarily between roughly £19 and £25 per share, where we believed the market had become far too pessimistic about a business whose long-term economics had barely changed. Even after the recent recovery, we still believe the current valuation offers an attractive long-term entry point for investors looking for a high-quality compounder. We’ve spent the last few weeks researching the company, visiting Action stores, speaking with industry participants, building our own valuation model, and gradually building a position. Here’s our full investment thesis. Why did the market panic? Interestingly, none of the individual concerns would normally justify such a dramatic decline. Instead, investors started combining several narratives together. The first was the weaker same-store sales performance in France. Action had become almost synonymous with flawless execution over the last decade. When one of its largest markets reported softer comparable sales, many investors immediately began questioning whether the company’s best years were already behind it.Then came another concern. Management announced plans to begin entering the United States around 2028. Whenever an outstanding European retailer announces U.S. expansion, investors immediately think about all the previous failures. Different consumer preferences. Higher logistics costs. A much more competitive retail landscape. Execution risk.The market quickly started discounting a scenario in which management would destroy shareholder value trying to replicate its European success overseas. Finally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. Since Action imports a large portion of its merchandise from Asia, investors feared higher freight costs, higher inflation and weaker consumer spending across Europe. One negative headline followed another.The stock continued falling. Yet when we looked underneath those headlines, we reached a very different conclusion.








One of our highest-conviction ideas is going live today🔥 44% revenue growth until 2028 4x 2028 earnings Potential dividend approaching 10% in 2028 Large discount versus peers High barriers to entry non AI and uncorrelated to broader market 55 % IRR over 3 years in the base case Imagine finding a founder-led company with a unique competitive position, operating in a niche market with powerful long-term structural tailwinds, trading at a valuation that looks more like a struggling cyclical business than a high-quality compounder. That’s exactly what we believe we’ve found. Based on management guidance and our own work, the business is expected to compound revenue at roughly 44% per year through 2028, while earnings should grow even faster as margins expand. Yet despite that growth profile, the company is currently trading at only ~4x our 2028 earnings estimate, with the potential to deliver a dividend yield approaching 10% on today’s purchase price if management executes on its stated payout policy. What makes this opportunity even more compelling is that the business combines: * Founder-led management with strong alignment. * A vertically integrated model that gives it structurally higher margins than peers. * Significant barriers to entry and multiple long-term growth drivers. * A much higher-quality business than comparable companies, yet trading at a meaningful valuation discount. * A business model that we believe is considerably less cyclical than the market currently assumes. Over the past weeks we’ve aggressively built a large position, because we believe the current valuation materially underestimates both the quality of the business and its earnings power over the next several years. If the company simply executes on its existing project pipeline, we think the market will eventually be forced to recognize that disconnect. The full deep dive is now live on our Substack. We cover the complete investment thesis, competitive advantages, valuation model, key risks, management incentives, and detailed return scenarios explaining why we believe this is one of the best risk/reward opportunities we currently see anywhere in the market. Link is in the bio.











