Arborator Capital Research

92 posts

Arborator Capital Research banner
Arborator Capital Research

Arborator Capital Research

@AC__research

🌍 Global Small Caps 📈 Compounders & Special Situations 🔎 Deep Fundamental Research 🎯 Targeting 20%+ 🏆Early: $BE $MP $NBIS $ELS.AX $XTB.WA $EQR.AX $212A.T

Prague, Czech Republic Katılım Haziran 2026
2 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Arborator Capital Research
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research·
Welcome, quick introduction to myself and Arborator Capital. We are a Czech-based investment fund and research team focused on global small and mid-cap equities, compounders, and asymmetric opportunities. My investing journey started during COVID. Between 2022 and 2024, I managed a small friends-and-family portfolio and spent thousands of hours researching businesses across global markets. The results were decent, but nothing extraordinary. I performed roughly in line with broader markets. During those years, I began building positions in several companies that would later become some of our biggest winners. At the time, many of these ideas were highly contrarian and deeply unpopular. I was researching companies such as Bloom Energy $BE , MP Materials $MP , and others long before they became widely discussed by investors. In many cases, the charts looked terrible and most investors wanted nothing to do with them. In 2024, I tried to break into the professional investment industry. I pitched some of these ideas, including Bloom Energy, to several investment firms during interviews in Prague. Nobody was particularly interested. I didn’t receive a single offer, and looking back, that wasn’t surprising. I was young, had no institutional experience, and many of my investment theses looked completely different from market consensus. There was even a period during 2024 when I seriously considered whether pursuing investing as a career made sense at all. Then things started to change. The very companies that had been dismissed by most investors began proving the original thesis right. Bloom Energy became one of the most successful investments of my life, appreciating roughly 3,000% from the time I first started pitching the idea. The AI infrastructure story played out, power demand accelerated, and many of the catalysts I had expected started materializing. At the same time, investments such as MP Materials benefited from the geopolitical shifts and supply-chain risks that had originally attracted us to the opportunity. As those ideas played out, I continued finding new opportunities across defense technology, drones, critical minerals, software, healthcare, energy, infrastructure and others. One example was Elsight $ELS.AX , an Israeli drone connectivity company that I discovered while researching Australian market by A-Z method. I shared the idea with several friends months before it became more widely known, and it eventually became one of our most successful investments, generating returns measured in several hundred percent. I also invested early in Lindbergh $LDB.MI and even travelled to Italy with my friend to meet management in person and better understand the business. It was one of our first in-person meetings with a management team. We hope to continue meeting management teams directly and occasionally share some of the insights and observations we gather from those meetings here on X. We identified Nebius $NBIS with my friend as a unique AI infrastructure opportunity and invested before the story became broadly recognized by the market. We also benefited from the long-term growth of retail investing through investments such as XTB $XTB.WA , one of the leading brokerage platforms in Europe. Last big winner was EQ Resources $EQR.AX . After recognizing the strategic implications of China’s restrictions on tungsten exports, I identified EQ Resources as one of the few meaningful western producers positioned to benefit from higher tungsten prices. That investment also generated returns of several hundred percent. And those are only a few examples. Today, we measure our successful investments in dozens rather than a handful. In 2025, our portfolio generated returns well above 100%, and year-to-date performance in 2026 is approaching 70 % (BE excluded). While we are proud of these results, we remain fully aware that investing is a long-term game and that difficult periods inevitably come with success. 1/2
English
8
1
51
13.7K
Arborator Capital Research
‼️Two Months in with outside capital, outperforming, but mistakes were made It has now been roughly two months since we opened Arborator Capital to outside investors. Here is summary of successes and failures, our outlook and best ideas. We launched the strategy for outside money at a challenging moment—almost exactly at the highs of the major equity indices. Since then, markets have been driven by a volatile combination of geopolitical escalation, renewed pressure on energy prices, sharp rotations between sectors and continued uncertainty around the sustainability of the crowded US technology and AI trade. Despite that backdrop, the portfolio has remained positive and has outperformed the main benchmarks. Based on the Interactive Brokers account alone, from 25 May to 24 July: Arborator Capital: +6.4% MSCI World: +2.0% S&P 500: –0.6% Nasdaq 100: –4.5% Over the same period, the portfolio generated a Sharpe ratio of 1.90, a Sortino ratio of 3.05, and correlations of only 0.32–0.46 with the major indices. These figures are encouraging because they broadly reflect what we are trying to build: a differentiated global equity strategy that is not simply another vehicle for owning the same large US technology companies, and that can potentially generate attractive returns across different market environments. Our goal is not merely to maximise headline performance. We are trying to generate strong risk-adjusted returns, maintain relatively low correlation to traditional equity benchmarks and avoid unnecessary volatility wherever possible. However, we also want to be transparent. This is still only a two-month period, and not everything went well. Several portfolio decisions were suboptimal, and we estimate that our mistakes cost us approximately two percentage points of performance. The results shown above also cover only the Interactive Brokers account. For regulatory and operational reasons, part of our US exposure is currently held in a separate account. Once those positions are fully incorporated, our consolidated performance will likely be around 1.5 percentage points lower than the figures shown here. Even after that adjustment, the portfolio remains positive and ahead of the major benchmarks. But the difference matters, and we do not want to present only the most flattering version of the numbers. In this five-part update, we want to explain: What worked particularly well Which decisions hurt performance What we learned from the first two months How we are repositioning the portfolio How we currently view the Middle East, oil, defence and the broader opportunity set Most importantly, we want to show how our investment process is evolving. The first two months confirmed that our strongest results came from our most original, deeply researched and highest-conviction ideas. At the same time, several smaller positions—often included mainly for diversification—added volatility without contributing meaningful alpha. That lesson is now shaping the next phase of the portfolio.
English
1
0
13
1.5K
Arborator Capital Research
4 Current Outlook and What Comes Next The geopolitical environment remains highly uncertain. The situation involving Iran, the US, the Houthis and shipping through the broader Middle East remains difficult to resolve. Iran has limited incentive to concede quickly, while the US and its allies face both political constraints and practical limitations in missile and air-defence inventories. Renewed attacks on tankers and shipping infrastructure could keep energy markets under pressure. Our view is that oil prices may therefore remain elevated for longer than many investors initially expected. This environment remains favourable for Arrow Exploration. We also remain highly confident in FitEasy. The investment case is based primarily on company-specific execution: Membership growth New club openings Franchise expansion Adoption of additional services Operating leverage The potential for a much larger national footprint We expect our management call to provide further insight into these areas. If the company continues to execute, we believe the upside remains substantial even without any support from the broader market environment. Smart Shooter and drones Smart Shooter remains another core position. We believe the company is positioned at the intersection of several powerful trends: Rapid growth in drone usage The urgent need for affordable counter-drone solutions Rising defence budgets Increased demand for precision fire-control systems Wider adoption across military customers The upcoming management call should help us assess how quickly orders could scale, how the competitive landscape is evolving and whether current production capacity can support stronger demand. Rising Stone and alternative equity exposure Rising Stone represents a very different type of opportunity. The company provides exposure to luxury Alpine real estate, development and potentially a growing renovation business. This is a highly niche market with local barriers to entry, limited supply and very different economic drivers from mainstream equities. We view the renovation opportunity as something close to a free option. Even if the company continues primarily with its existing development pipeline, we believe the shares remain inexpensive. If renovations scale successfully, supported by regulatory requirements and structural demand, the additional upside could be meaningful. The portfolio target Our ambition remains to generate approximately 20% from the public launch of the strategy at the end of May through year-end. This is a target, not a promise. Markets can move against us, individual companies can disappoint and geopolitical conditions can change quickly. However, based on the current portfolio and the opportunity set we see, we believe the target remains achievable. The first two months were encouraging, but they also exposed weaknesses in the initial portfolio construction. We probably spread capital too widely across several lower-conviction names. That is now changing. We intend to: Reduce weaker and more conventional positions Increase exposure to our highest-conviction ideas Maintain low correlation across the portfolio Focus on overlooked global small caps Build positions where we have a genuine research edge Share more of our process and conclusions with subscribers In Arborator Capital we will therefore be even more focused on finding underfollowed companies around the world, understanding them better than the market and combining them into a portfolio capable of producing both strong returns and attractive risk-adjusted performance. What was basically our focus even before opening our company to outside investors. You can find our detailed write-ups on several of these positions on Substack. arboratorcapitalresearch.substack.com We will also publish summaries from our upcoming management calls with FitEasy and Smart Shooter, together with further research on drones, defence technology and selected new portfolio ideas.
English
1
0
0
221
Arborator Capital Research
3 How We Are Repositioning the Portfolio The portfolio will likely become more concentrated in our highest-conviction ideas. That does not mean abandoning diversification. We still want exposure across different regions, sectors, currencies and economic drivers. However, we want each position to earn its place in the portfolio. The objective is to own a diversified group of exceptional ideas, not a large collection of average ones. Greater focus on our original research Going forward, we intend to allocate more capital to companies where we have developed an original thesis and can identify a genuine informational or analytical advantage. These tend to be businesses that are largely absent from mainstream financial media and rarely discussed by global investors. Our research process may include: Detailed analysis of regulatory filings Industry research Competitor comparisons Conversations with management Discussions with industry experts Site visits Local-language sources Independent valuation models Next week’s calls with FitEasy and Smart Shooter are good examples of this approach. Direct contact with management does not automatically create an edge, but it can help us understand the key operating variables, challenge our assumptions and identify areas where the market may be mispricing the business. We will publish summaries and important takeaways from both calls on Substack. We also reduced some gold exposure as the Middle East conflict extended and chance for rate hikes increased. Our capital could be therefore reallocated toward opportunities with more attractive expected returns. Gold still has a role within the portfolio, and we continue to like selected miners such as Orvana. Drones and defence technology One area where we are increasing research intensity is drones. The events in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to demonstrate that drones are not a temporary theme. They are becoming one of the defining features of modern warfare. The most attractive opportunities may not necessarily be the largest traditional defence contractors. We are particularly interested in companies involved in: Counter-drone systems Autonomous navigation Electronic warfare Drone detection Precision targeting Communication systems Components used in unmanned platforms We have identified several rapidly growing companies in this area, including some that are still largely unknown to international investors. We are not ready to disclose all of them yet, but we expect drones and counter-UAS systems to become a more important part of the portfolio. Healthcare We are also looking at increasing exposure to a healthcare, for example Seers (brought to us by @stock_logging) that recently experienced forced selling in Korea. Korean retail investors frequently use leverage, which can create sharp price dislocations when the market falls and margin calls force investors to liquidate positions indiscriminately. In some cases, the underlying business changes very little while the share price collapses. We agree with the view that these episodes can create unusually attractive entry points, particularly in companies with strong fundamentals and limited foreign ownership. We are currently evaluating whether to increase the position substantially enough for it to become one of our larger holdings. A genuinely global portfolio Our portfolio is intentionally global. We currently have or are evaluating exposure to: Japanese fitness Israeli defence technology Colombian oil production European discount retail Alpine luxury real estate Gold and copper mining Korean healthcare Drone technologies Selected niche companies These businesses are exposed to very different underlying drivers. That is exactly the point. We do not want the portfolio to behave like a slightly modified version of the S&P 500. We want to offer investors exposure to companies and structural trends that they are unlikely to own through traditional funds.
English
1
0
1
243
Mytikas Capital
Mytikas Capital@MytikasCapital·
@AC__research I love your story, it resonates deeply with me. Self-made investor, got rejected in a top tech european equity fund, and i am continuing independent research on my own! Thanks for sharing Jan!!!
English
1
0
0
42
Arborator Capital Research
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research·
Welcome, quick introduction to myself and Arborator Capital. We are a Czech-based investment fund and research team focused on global small and mid-cap equities, compounders, and asymmetric opportunities. My investing journey started during COVID. Between 2022 and 2024, I managed a small friends-and-family portfolio and spent thousands of hours researching businesses across global markets. The results were decent, but nothing extraordinary. I performed roughly in line with broader markets. During those years, I began building positions in several companies that would later become some of our biggest winners. At the time, many of these ideas were highly contrarian and deeply unpopular. I was researching companies such as Bloom Energy $BE , MP Materials $MP , and others long before they became widely discussed by investors. In many cases, the charts looked terrible and most investors wanted nothing to do with them. In 2024, I tried to break into the professional investment industry. I pitched some of these ideas, including Bloom Energy, to several investment firms during interviews in Prague. Nobody was particularly interested. I didn’t receive a single offer, and looking back, that wasn’t surprising. I was young, had no institutional experience, and many of my investment theses looked completely different from market consensus. There was even a period during 2024 when I seriously considered whether pursuing investing as a career made sense at all. Then things started to change. The very companies that had been dismissed by most investors began proving the original thesis right. Bloom Energy became one of the most successful investments of my life, appreciating roughly 3,000% from the time I first started pitching the idea. The AI infrastructure story played out, power demand accelerated, and many of the catalysts I had expected started materializing. At the same time, investments such as MP Materials benefited from the geopolitical shifts and supply-chain risks that had originally attracted us to the opportunity. As those ideas played out, I continued finding new opportunities across defense technology, drones, critical minerals, software, healthcare, energy, infrastructure and others. One example was Elsight $ELS.AX , an Israeli drone connectivity company that I discovered while researching Australian market by A-Z method. I shared the idea with several friends months before it became more widely known, and it eventually became one of our most successful investments, generating returns measured in several hundred percent. I also invested early in Lindbergh $LDB.MI and even travelled to Italy with my friend to meet management in person and better understand the business. It was one of our first in-person meetings with a management team. We hope to continue meeting management teams directly and occasionally share some of the insights and observations we gather from those meetings here on X. We identified Nebius $NBIS with my friend as a unique AI infrastructure opportunity and invested before the story became broadly recognized by the market. We also benefited from the long-term growth of retail investing through investments such as XTB $XTB.WA , one of the leading brokerage platforms in Europe. Last big winner was EQ Resources $EQR.AX . After recognizing the strategic implications of China’s restrictions on tungsten exports, I identified EQ Resources as one of the few meaningful western producers positioned to benefit from higher tungsten prices. That investment also generated returns of several hundred percent. And those are only a few examples. Today, we measure our successful investments in dozens rather than a handful. In 2025, our portfolio generated returns well above 100%, and year-to-date performance in 2026 is approaching 70 % (BE excluded). While we are proud of these results, we remain fully aware that investing is a long-term game and that difficult periods inevitably come with success. 1/2
English
8
1
51
13.7K
Arborator Capital Research
#Oil keeps breaking higher. Brent is now above $100. At these oil prices, $AXL.V is starting to look like one of the most compelling investment opportunities we see anywhere in the market. If oil remains around current levels for an extended period, the valuation becomes extremely difficult to ignore. Based on our estimates: • 📈 EV / Operating Cash Flow falls below 1×, meaning the company could generate its entire current enterprise value in operating cash flow in less than 12 months. • 💰 Even after deducting this year’s capex, the business still trades at an exceptionally attractive cash flow multiple. • 🛢️ Virtually no hedging, so almost every additional dollar of Brent flows directly into cash flow. • 🚀 A major company-specific catalyst, completely independent of oil prices, could materially re-rate the shares on its own. • The largest historical overhang has significantly derisked, while today’s geopolitical backdrop provides meaningful additional upside. In our view, $AXL.V is becoming one of the highest-conviction ideas in our entire portfolio and one of the best ways to gain exposure to sustained higher oil prices. If our thesis plays out, we believe the stock has the potential to deliver tens of percent of upside over the coming months, even before considering longer-term optionality. Our full investment thesis includes a detailed valuation model, downside analysis, scenario analysis and an explanation of why we believe the downside is unusually well protected. The full write-up is available on our Substack (link bellow and in bio). #Oil #Brent #Energy #CanadianStocks #ValueInvesting #Investing
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research

🔥 The ultimate portfolio hedge against further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz? We think we’ve found it. A stock that could benefit enormously if oil prices spike further… while still offering substantial upside even if geopolitical tensions ease. Since the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz escalated, we’ve been asking ourselves one question: Is there a stock that benefits massively if oil spikes… but can still generate outstanding returns even if tensions fade? After weeks of research, we think we’ve found exactly that. In our view, it’s one of the most attractive macro hedges available today. If tensions escalate further, it could be among the biggest equity beneficiaries. If they don’t, we still believe the company is undervalued based on its own fundamentals. It’s currently our third-largest position, behind only FitEasy $212A.T and Smart Shooter $SMSH . (Other write ups are on Substack) Here’s why: • 🛢️ Virtually no oil hedging – almost every additional dollar of Brent flows directly into cash flow. • 💰 Net cash equal to roughly one-third of its market cap, with no debt. • 📈 Trading at roughly ~1× this year’s EBITDA (our estimates). • 💵 EV/FCF below 2× even assuming Brent prices slightly below current levels. • ⛽ Expected to generate cash over the next two years approaching today’s entire market capitalization. • 🚀 Several company-specific catalysts (independent of oil prices) that we believe could unlock 30–50%+ upside on their own. • 📊 Every analyst report we reviewed values the shares roughly 50–100% above the current price. The market has started to price in higher oil prices, but in our opinion it still hasn’t fully reflected either the improving company-specific outlook or just how much operating leverage this business has to elevated Brent prices. We published our full investment thesis, valuation model and scenario analysis today. The full write-up is available on our Substack link in below 👇

English
0
0
7
1.4K
Arborator Capital Research
SK Telecom $SKM is up roughly 8–10% in today’s pre-market, while broader markets are under pressure. Today’s announcement reinforces exactly the thesis we’ve been highlighting for months. Many investors still view SK Telecom as “just another telecom.” We think that’s missing the bigger picture. Beyond its core telecom business and its highly valuable stake in Anthropic, SK Telecom is steadily building a much larger AI ecosystem. Today’s announcement is another step in that direction: • 🚀 Launch of a new subsidiary focused on AI data centers (SK Hyper) • 💰 KRW 750 billion (~$550M) planned investment by 2030 • 🏗️ The company will develop, build and operate AI data center infrastructure while attracting enterprise customers. In our view, this further supports our sum-of-the-parts investment thesis. The market is still valuing SK Telecom largely as a traditional telecom operator while assigning very little value to its rapidly growing AI assets and investments. When the stock traded around $30–33, we accumulated the position aggressively because we believed the market was significantly underestimating the value of these assets. Today’s move is encouraging, but we remain bullish. The original investment thesis is linked below.
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research

How to invest in #Anthropic before the IPO? Our favorite proxy remains $SKM (SK Telecom). The market still values SK Telecom primarily as a mature telecom operator. We believe that’s becoming increasingly outdated. Here’s why 👇 Anthropic is growing at an extraordinary pace. • Early 2026: ~$14B revenue run-rate • April 2026: ~$30B • May 2026: >$47B • Today, we estimate annualized recurring revenue is already approaching $50B. However, what makes the story particularly interesting is the pace of growth. If Anthropic continues executing anywhere close to its current trajectory, we believe recurring revenue could potentially approach $70–80B by the time of a public listing. Private AI leaders have consistently commanded premium valuation multiples, and public markets have often assigned even higher multiples to category-defining AI companies. If Anthropic enters the public markets with continued hypergrowth, we believe a 25–35x Price-to-Sales multiple is a reasonable upside scenario. That combination—$70–80B of recurring revenue together with a premium valuation multiple—could support an equity valuation approaching $2T over the next 6–12 months. Prediction markets such as Polymarket currently imply roughly a 45–50% probability that Anthropic reaches more than $1.8T after its IPO. SK Telecom invested $100M into Anthropic in 2023 and participated again in the latest financing round. Based on publicly available information, we estimate SK Telecom currently owns roughly 0.3% of Anthropic, implying a stake worth approximately $3B at today’s valuation. Even after accounting for potential future dilution, we estimate that stake could be worth around $5B if Anthropic eventually reaches a $2T valuation. The company also owns strategic stakes in Penguin Solutions $PENG , #Lambda and #Perplexity. Based on publicly available information, we estimate these investments are collectively worth at least ~$0.5B today, with Penguin Solutions representing the largest position. Taken together, we estimate to be roughly $3.5B of AI equity investments today. The telecom business itself is far from “legacy.” SK Telecom remains Korea’s largest wireless operator with: • ~50% mobile market share • ~23 million subscribers • exceptionally low churn • highly recurring cash flows • ~4% dividend yield At the same time, management is transforming the company into one of Korea’s key AI infrastructure providers through: • strategic partnership with $NVDA • NVIDIA DSX AI factories • hyperscale AI data centers • Project Glasswing with Anthropic • Aster AI, A-dot and enterprise AI products This is increasingly becoming an AI infrastructure company. Valuation Current Enterprise Value: ~$17B 2026E EBITDA: ~$3.5B Current multiple: • ~4.9x EV/EBITDA Conservative scenario • Anthropic stake: $3B • Other AI investments: $0.5B • Total AI portfolio: $3.5B • Adjusted EV: ~$13.5B • Adjusted EV/EBITDA: ~3.9x Assuming the operating business rerates to 5x EV/EBITDA, we estimate approximately 35–40% upside from today’s valuation over the next 6–12 months. Optimistic scenario • Anthropic stake: $5B • Other AI investments: $0.5B • Total AI portfolio: $5.5B • Adjusted EV: ~$11.5B • Adjusted EV/EBITDA: ~3.3x Assuming the operating business rerates to 7x EV/EBITDA, we estimate approximately 110–120% upside from today’s valuation over the next 6–12 months. These are naturally our own scenarios—not forecasts—but we believe the current valuation leaves a substantial margin of safety while providing meaningful upside if Anthropic continues executing. In our view, investors are getting: • a high-quality cash-generative telecom business, • one of Korea’s leading AI infrastructure platforms, • and one of the strongest publicly traded portfolios of private AI investments—including Anthropic, Penguin Solutions, Lambda and Perplexity. That combination makes $SKM one of the most interesting AI proxy investments we have found.

English
0
0
8
2.4K
Arborator Capital Research
3i Group $III.L +7% today after another strong quarterly update. We continue to hold the position, and today’s results reinforce our investment thesis. Key highlights: • 📈 NAV per share increased from £30.30 to £31.31 during the quarter (+3.3% QoQ). • 💰 Despite today’s rally, the shares still trade at around a 14% discount to NAV (share price ~£27 vs. NAV of £31.31). • 🛒 Action once again delivered outstanding operating performance: Revenue +14% YoY to €4.34B EBITDA +18% YoY to €609M • 🔄 Management completed a 1.44% share buyback, repurchasing 14.7 million shares for £344M while the stock was trading at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value—an excellent capital allocation decision that should further enhance per-share value over time. Overall, this is another encouraging update. Action continues to execute exceptionally well, the broader private equity portfolio remains resilient, NAV keeps compounding, and management continues to allocate capital intelligently through buybacks. 3i Group remains one of our largest positions (currently around our 5th–6th largest holding), and we continue to hold our shares. For anyone interested in the full investment case, I’ve linked our detailed write-up below.
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research

PART 1 — Why We Started Buying 3i Group: When one of Europe’s Highest-Quality Compounders Went on Sale 1/2 What if Europe’s best retailer has quietly compounded revenue at ~25% CAGR over the past decade, delivers industry-leading returns on capital, and still trades at roughly half the EV/EBITDA multiple of Costco despite growing several times faster? We break down why we believe 3i Group’s stake in Action could be one of the most attractive compounders in global public markets. Full write-up coming soon on Substack. Link in bio. Every now and then, the market gives investors an opportunity that doesn’t come from a deteriorating business, but from deteriorating sentiment. These are often our favorite situations. Not because they’re easy, but because they allow us to buy exceptional businesses at valuations that only appear during periods of maximum pessimism.   Over the past few months, we believe 3i Group $III.L has become one of those opportunities. After reporting results that were, in our opinion, far from disastrous, the stock experienced one of its sharpest corrections in years.   The market reacted to several concerns at once: •weaker-than-expected like-for-like sales in France, •some softness in Germany, •concerns that Action’s extraordinary growth may finally be slowing, •the announcement of a future expansion into the United States, •and, more recently, fears that rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could pressure European consumers.   All of those headlines arrived almost simultaneously. The result? The share price fell from above £40 last year to nearly £19 at the lows. For us, that wasn’t a warning sign. It was an invitation to start buying.   We gradually accumulated our position primarily between roughly £19 and £25 per share, where we believed the market had become far too pessimistic about a business whose long-term economics had barely changed. Even after the recent recovery, we still believe the current valuation offers an attractive long-term entry point for investors looking for a high-quality compounder.   We’ve spent the last few weeks researching the company, visiting Action stores, speaking with industry participants, building our own valuation model, and gradually building a position. Here’s our full investment thesis.   Why did the market panic?   Interestingly, none of the individual concerns would normally justify such a dramatic decline. Instead, investors started combining several narratives together. The first was the weaker same-store sales performance in France.   Action had become almost synonymous with flawless execution over the last decade. When one of its largest markets reported softer comparable sales, many investors immediately began questioning whether the company’s best years were already behind it.Then came another concern.   Management announced plans to begin entering the United States around 2028. Whenever an outstanding European retailer announces U.S. expansion, investors immediately think about all the previous failures. Different consumer preferences. Higher logistics costs. A much more competitive retail landscape. Execution risk.The market quickly started discounting a scenario in which management would destroy shareholder value trying to replicate its European success overseas.   Finally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. Since Action imports a large portion of its merchandise from Asia, investors feared higher freight costs, higher inflation and weaker consumer spending across Europe. One negative headline followed another.The stock continued falling. Yet when we looked underneath those headlines, we reached a very different conclusion.

English
0
0
9
1.6K
Arborator Capital Research
🔥 The ultimate portfolio hedge against further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz? We think we’ve found it. A stock that could benefit enormously if oil prices spike further… while still offering substantial upside even if geopolitical tensions ease. Since the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz escalated, we’ve been asking ourselves one question: Is there a stock that benefits massively if oil spikes… but can still generate outstanding returns even if tensions fade? After weeks of research, we think we’ve found exactly that. In our view, it’s one of the most attractive macro hedges available today. If tensions escalate further, it could be among the biggest equity beneficiaries. If they don’t, we still believe the company is undervalued based on its own fundamentals. It’s currently our third-largest position, behind only FitEasy $212A.T and Smart Shooter $SMSH . (Other write ups are on Substack) Here’s why: • 🛢️ Virtually no oil hedging – almost every additional dollar of Brent flows directly into cash flow. • 💰 Net cash equal to roughly one-third of its market cap, with no debt. • 📈 Trading at roughly ~1× this year’s EBITDA (our estimates). • 💵 EV/FCF below 2× even assuming Brent prices slightly below current levels. • ⛽ Expected to generate cash over the next two years approaching today’s entire market capitalization. • 🚀 Several company-specific catalysts (independent of oil prices) that we believe could unlock 30–50%+ upside on their own. • 📊 Every analyst report we reviewed values the shares roughly 50–100% above the current price. The market has started to price in higher oil prices, but in our opinion it still hasn’t fully reflected either the improving company-specific outlook or just how much operating leverage this business has to elevated Brent prices. We published our full investment thesis, valuation model and scenario analysis today. The full write-up is available on our Substack link in below 👇
Arborator Capital Research tweet media
English
3
1
18
5.2K
Milkman
Milkman@MilkmanD123·
@AC__research Is anyone else unable to access their website? It says access blocked due to a security service
English
1
0
0
95
Arborator Capital Research
The company is Rising Stone ($ALRIS.PA). They build and sell ultra-luxury chalets and apartments in the most exclusive resorts in the French Alps – Courchevel, Val d'Isère, Méribel, Val Thorens. A few things that make this one of our highest-conviction ideas: ➡️ Vertically integrated – land, design, construction, sales, and rentals all in-house. 20.8% operating margin vs. <10% for French homebuilders. ➡️ €1B development pipeline through 2030, already ~65% land-secured. Guiding for a 3x net income and 2x revenue growth till 2028. ➡️ A coming wave of forced renovations: ~75% of Alpine housing stock is energy-rated F/G/E and will be legally unrentable within years under French climate law. Rising Stone is one of the few players who can execute renovations at this altitude, at scale. ➡️ Rising temperatures are pushing the reliable "snow line" higher – Rising Stone's resorts sit above it –> their competitive moat gets stronger as the climate changes ➡️ Founder still owns 51%, and is compensation is tied on hitting the net income targets he set publicly. All this, and the market is pricing it at ~4x our 2028 earnings estimate. We wrote up the full thesis – pipeline economics, structural tailwinds, peer comps, management incentives, and our return scenarios (55-74% IRR base/bull case). Link below 👇
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research

One of our highest-conviction ideas is going live today🔥 44% revenue growth until 2028 4x 2028 earnings Potential dividend approaching 10% in 2028 Large discount versus peers High barriers to entry non AI and uncorrelated to broader market 55 % IRR over 3 years in the base case Imagine finding a founder-led company with a unique competitive position, operating in a niche market with powerful long-term structural tailwinds, trading at a valuation that looks more like a struggling cyclical business than a high-quality compounder. That’s exactly what we believe we’ve found. Based on management guidance and our own work, the business is expected to compound revenue at roughly 44% per year through 2028, while earnings should grow even faster as margins expand. Yet despite that growth profile, the company is currently trading at only ~4x our 2028 earnings estimate, with the potential to deliver a dividend yield approaching 10% on today’s purchase price if management executes on its stated payout policy. What makes this opportunity even more compelling is that the business combines: * Founder-led management with strong alignment. * A vertically integrated model that gives it structurally higher margins than peers. * Significant barriers to entry and multiple long-term growth drivers. * A much higher-quality business than comparable companies, yet trading at a meaningful valuation discount. * A business model that we believe is considerably less cyclical than the market currently assumes. Over the past weeks we’ve aggressively built a large position, because we believe the current valuation materially underestimates both the quality of the business and its earnings power over the next several years. If the company simply executes on its existing project pipeline, we think the market will eventually be forced to recognize that disconnect. The full deep dive is now live on our Substack. We cover the complete investment thesis, competitive advantages, valuation model, key risks, management incentives, and detailed return scenarios explaining why we believe this is one of the best risk/reward opportunities we currently see anywhere in the market. Link is in the bio.

English
4
3
47
6.6K
Hira
Hira@Hiraweb3·
@AC__research niche luxury plays with structural tailwinds = chef’s kiss
English
1
0
1
88
Arborator Capital Research
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research·
@fastingeurope It is just behind, like 6 or 7, but it could be certainly 5, it is more about subjective opinion rather than the business quality.
English
0
0
0
38
Arborator Capital Research
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research·
🧨 Our 5 Highest Conviction Ideas Right Now These are currently at the very top of our list👇 1️⃣ FitEasy — $212A.T #212A 🇯🇵 The Japanese Compounder Nobody Is Watching Trading at ~11x EV/EBIT despite ~60% earnings growth, consistently beating guidance and, in our view, capable of compounding earnings at ~30% annually over the coming years. Our largest position and one of the highest-quality small caps we’ve found. Full deep dive available on our Substack. Possible IRR 50% + over next 2-3 years! 2️⃣ Smart Shooter $SMSH $SMSH.TA 🇮🇱 The AI Counter-Drone Leader One of the most unique defense businesses we’ve researched. AI-powered fire-control systems addressing one of the fastest-growing military markets globally. There is basically no other solution on the market yet, which is effectively protecting infantry against drones threats. We believe the market still significantly underestimates both the TAM and the long-term earnings potential. IRR 30%+ until the end of the decade likely! 3️⃣ Rising Stone — $ALRIS.PA 🇫🇷 A Founder-Led Alpine Compounder at 4x 2028 Earnings A vertically integrated luxury real estate developer with one of the strongest project pipelines we’ve seen. Founder-led, structurally advantaged and trading at only ~4x our 2028 earnings estimate despite multiple long-term tailwinds. Full deep dive available on our Substack. Possible IRR 50% + over next 2-3 years! 4️⃣ Arrow Exploration — $AXL / $AXL.V 🇨🇴 An Asymmetric Bet on Oil and Geopolitics The more severe the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the greater the upside potential for Arrow. A debt-free oil producer with enormous leverage to oil prices, no meaningful hedging, multiple company-specific catalysts and what we believe is one of the most attractive risk/reward profiles in the energy sector today. Printing ton of cash when is the traffic through Hormuz restricted and #oil is above 80. Full write-up coming soon on Substack, likely next week, subscribe to not miss that one. 5️⃣ Undisclosed Idea 👀 We will post a deep dive on Substack in the following weeks. Over the coming posts we’ll explain why each of these made the list. 💬 Have a high-conviction investment idea of your own? We’d genuinely love to hear it. Leave it in the comments. If we find one particularly interesting, we’ll happily share it with the community (with credit).
Arborator Capital Research tweet mediaArborator Capital Research tweet mediaArborator Capital Research tweet media
English
4
2
33
2.5K
Arborator Capital Research
Arborator Capital Research@AC__research·
Great question! The founders are actually very well aligned with shareholders. Depending on how you count the founder’s direct stake and the family holding company, insiders still control at least 60% of the company, which was another positive factor for us when we built the position. Unfortunately, I’ve never been to Japan myself—coming from the Czech Republic it’s quite a trip 😄. But my friend (who co-founded our fund with me) and I are planning to visit next year. We’d love to visit several FitEasy locations, speak with customers and, hopefully, meet the management as well. In the meantime, a few people living in Japan have replied both here on X and under our Substack write-up with their own experiences. Their feedback has actually been very helpful (including comments about crowded locations during peak hours), and I discussed why I view that as more of a demand signal than a structural issue. If you scroll through the comments, you’ll find a much more detailed discussion there.
English
0
0
1
83
BoujeeBanker
BoujeeBanker@boujee_banker·
@AC__research Have you visited a FitEasy location? It looks like insiders control >70% of shares? is that correct?
English
1
0
0
70