A Capital

@SpecSitsCapMgmt A nice step forward for corporate governance in Korea, but how likely is it that Palliser will actually be able to get LG Chem to sell down its LGES stake more than they have already committed to (~70%)?

Independent proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis recommend shareholders vote for Palliser proposal at LG Chem’s AGM. The proposal is aimed at tackling the company’s persistently large holding discount. $051910.KS $051915.KS businesswire.com/news/home/2026…

The negative move in $RACE pausing Middle East deliveries feels overdone. Max exposure is ~600–650 cars (~4–5% of shipments), with a 2+ year waitlist/backlog that can be reallocated globally. Meanwhile, higher oil = more Gulf wealth.

@WaterworldCapi1 $SATS - SpaceX IPO will get cancelled due to President Trump’s “forever war” in Iran. Charlie Ergen will likely plunder the remaining assets to build a life-sized ice castle in Norway…

$GNW still feels like a sleeper… Post the July ’25 UK ruling in the AXA/Santander litigation, the stock heavily re-rated, but the setup still looks odd: today you own an 81% stake in $ACT, a legacy runoff insurance book you can argue is worth $0, and a new LTC insurance sub seeded with ~$150mm… Back out the $ACT stake and $GNW RemainCo is trading at a negative value. Meanwhile $GNW has a look-through ~$750mm recovery tied to the AXA judgment (~£680mm awarded), which the market still seems to be discounting heavily even though it’s in the UK appeals process…

Why $NN shares waited until earnings to react when Communications Daily literally told us an NPRM is coming two weeks ago, and OIRA stated it had received the FCC's NPRM, I do not know... Either way, there's a very strong set of catalysts ahead, and I think we can go MUCH higher.

$TDS: we remain long and are sharing a follow-up note at kerr.co/tds-2. Since our January report, earnings have been solid and thesis reaffirming. But it’s worth discussing what comes next 1/6

My mentor is tough as hell and I love it. No sugarcoating, no hand-holding, just focus on what actually drives P&L. That’s how you get better…

Altai was behind $LOGC - but this seems like more of an uphill battle… Anyone with thoughts?

Re-upping this: Trump cares about two policy agendas above all else: (1) the economy/stock market, because his whole brand is the genius businessman / The Apprentice guy, and (2) making sure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. Immigration, trade, tariffs, culture war issues all matter to him, but those sit in the next tier down. The economy and Iran are what really drive him. Obviously he wants #2 without disturbing #1, but starting a war around the Strait of Hormuz (the most sensitive energy chokepoint in the world) is naturally going to rattle markets, especially when they were already on edge about AI, private credit, and broader bubble fears. He’ll probably run covert ops, special forces, and other asymmetric pressure for years if needed. What he cannot afford is the perception of a drawn-out Iraq-style war. That’s the real calculus: duration, or at least the perception of duration. He can live with escalation. He cannot afford an open-ended conflict. That’s the Trump put, not a put on stocks, but a put on duration. My prediction: it gets worse briefly as he tries to accomplish his goals in the short window he has before market stress or popular pushback hits a breaking point… then it gets much better.

@origoinvest How does this “naming and shaming” work?

More great news on the Korea discount front Double-listings of subsidiaries have plagued Korean stocks syphoning liquidity and amplifying weak minority protection rights across conglomerate structures

@jimdelisle @Polarisbear87 Wasn’t my question, but thank you.

TWO is an agency mREIT. Its portfolio is easily valued AND (in the current environment of MSR consolidation and credit availability) LIQUID. Even the craziest critic of TWO mgmt would never accuse them of anything beyond poor decisionmaking. At the current 84% NAV with AGNC at 125%, I see this as a pretty good long.

I am taking a break from my 2 month break from X and going back to being the bombastahd you know and love...(or at least have chosen to follow)...because I cannot sit silently while the burlesque of the $UWMC acq of $TWO plays out (or doesnt).

@jimdelisle @Polarisbear87 The issue I’m hearing is that it was a deal of necessity for $TWO - they need UWM more than the other way around. Do you think there’s another bidder and positive reaction if UWM deal gets rejected?

@Polarisbear87 A deal will happen. IMO it is doubtful it ill be UWMC.

Interesting that $TWO started to deviate from the implied deal consideration right before the meeting was adjourned. It now trades at a negative spread (more than the deal px) - anyone have views on a stalking horse bid or deal break?

@CPDDOUGH According to the ones I know, they have all made $50mm+ when they exited to lower middle market PE… Nobody lies 🤷‍♂️

@ACapitalLP Serious question, any of these hvac roll-ups going well? I keep hearing about people doing this but mkt down 3yrs in a row and platforms supposedly having a tough go as a result.

Never second guessing myself again. Either it works big, or I go do HVAC roll-ups like every other schmuck I know…

@KenR0415 Same to you bud 😬

@ACapitalLP Describing someone as having a “confirmed case of TDS” isn’t exactly being objective.

It’s actually insane how much people’s political views can skew their investment outlook. Remain objective. When the war broke out, a smart but very biased friend with a confirmed case of TDS called me and said the economy was definitely going to crash, oil was going to $200, and we were screwed. I didn’t need to do any more work. The reaction told me everything. Perception was about to deviate from reality. That’s the opportunity. Do you see it?

Variant Views At its core, a market is just a collection of opinions, probabilities, and positioning. People make money when they see something differently from the consensus and that view turns out to be right. In other words, profits come from variant views, or from recognizing when perception does not equal reality. Think about sports betting. If the number one team is playing the worst team in the league, the odds will be heavily skewed. Betting on the favorite usually offers very little payoff because everyone already agrees on the outcome. But if you had a reason to believe the underdog was being underestimated, maybe because of something the broader market was missing, and the underdog won, the payoff would be huge. The opportunity existed because the odds were wrong, or at least incomplete. Markets work the same way. Years ago, variant views often came from doing differentiated work on fundamentals. Maybe you did channel checks, talked to competitors, visited stores, or built a view on a quarter that was different from the sell-side and other funds. That still exists, but the opportunity set has changed. Today, social media, engagement bait, narrative momentum, fake certainty, hype, and despair all distort perception in real time. The market is still about variant views, but now there is often just as much edge in seeing through noise as there is in uncovering new information. That is why I think one of the most important skills in investing today is the ability to see through the BS and remain objective. The question is not just “what is true?” It is also “what does the market currently believe?” and “where is that belief wrong?” When perception gets pulled too far away from reality, opportunity is created. The job is to identify those moments clearly, stay grounded, and act before the gap closes...